In case your memory isn’t so good, let me take you back ten years.
The Green Bay Packers had put together an exceptional team. With young QB Aaron Rodgers in his fourth year as a starter, the passing game went bananas. Aaron’s numbers (he was rested the final game of the regular season) were: 343 completions in 502 attempts (68.3), 4,643 passing yards, 9.2 yards per attempt, 45 TDs, 6 interceptions, and a 122.5 passer rating – the latter mark being the best in league history. By the way, Aaron also rushed 60 times for 257 yards, and scored three touchdowns along the way. He was sacked 36 times, and he lost no fumbles on the year.
Aaron was named the league’s MVP, and it wasn’t close. The nationwide panel of 50 media members from the Associated Press gave Rodgers 48 votes, while Drew Brees got the other two. There’s not much else that needs to be said: Aaron had a magical year. And it’s looking like he’ll pick off another MVP award this season.
The team finished the regular season at 15 and one; the sole loss came in Week 14, in an away game, by a score of 19 to 14. The team that beat them was Kansas City. It was the only sour note for Aaron that regular season: he completed only 17 of 35 passes, for 235 passing yards, 1 TD, was sacked four times, and had an 80.1 passer rating. The winning QB was Kyle Orton, whose rating on the day was a solid 104.1. The Chiefs finished the year at 7-9, and the Packers went on to the playoffs as the top seed – which also might repeat itself this time around.
Then came January 15. Playing at home, the Packers were immediately eliminated from the playoffs by the New York Giants – and rather easily, by a 17-point margin.
What went wrong? In that game, a young Eli Manning handled the Packers’ defense with relative ease – which wasn’t unusual. In going 21 of 33 for 330 yards, 3 TDs, and with a 114.5 passer rating Eli received the Super Bowl MVP award.
It hardly came as a shock that the Packers’ defense crumbled. On the regular season, Green Bay wound up 19th in total yards surrendered. Worse though, they were dead last in passing yards given up, yielding 4,796 yards – the league average was 3,675.
But to say that the defense played badly isn’t the only reason the Packers Super Bowl dreams were so suddenly dashed. It wasn’t just the defense that was inferior on that chilly day. The Giants largely thwarted the Pack’s reigning Super Bowl MVP quarterback and the team’s fearsome pass attack.
Among the treasure trove of talented green-and-gold receivers, no one stood out that day. Donald Driver had 3 catches for 45 yards, Greg Jennings had 4 for 40, Jordy Nelson had 3 for 39, Randall Cobb had 3 for 38, Jermichael Finley had 4 for 37, and James Jones, James Starks, and Ryan Grant each had fewer than 25 yards through the air.
As for Rodgers, his line was 26 of 46 for 264 yards, 2 TDs, an interception, and a dismal passer rating of 78.5 – 44 points below his regular season rating, and 36 points behind Eli’s rating on that day.
So it was typically bad pass defense, and untypically bad pass offense that led to the stunning defeat. But that’s not all.
On that day the Packers lost three fumbles – by Rodgers, Ryan, and John Kuhn. While the Packers gave up four turnovers, the Giants gave up just the one interception. A team that commits three more turnovers than the opposition is seldom going to win a playoff game.
Yes, the little-remembered item that occurred back on January 14, 2012 was that the Packers failed to secure the ball. Of the three reasons set forth above, I’d say that those four turnovers was the primary reason the Packers lost to the Giants.
How uncharacteristic was it for the Packers to have so many giveaways? On the regular season they fumbled the ball away only six times in 16 games. In this one game against the Giants they did so three times. Prior to the playoffs, the Packers had the second-best turnover differential (takeaways minus giveaways) in the league, at +24 – only one other team had a differential of more than +11.
For those critics who give the Packers no chance to go far in the upcoming playoffs, some words of caution. Turnovers happen, and they can happen to the best and most talented of teams. Any team can win it all once it makes the playoffs – the 2010 Packers are proof of that. And any team, no matter how dominant in the regular season, is likely to lose if they come up short on the turnovers scoreboard.
2011 and 2020 Comparisons
Are you ready for some more statistical overload?
In the 2011 regular season, Green Bay had the most points scored (560), the third best overall yardage (6,482), and the third-best passing yardage (4,924). Through 13 games, the current Packers are first in points scored (31.5/game, narrowly ahead of the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Titans); they are second-best (to the Chiefs) in total yardage (5,169); and they are also second-best in passing yardage (well behind the Chiefs).
In 2011, the Packers had the league’s best regular-season record (15-1). Currently, only the Chiefs (12-1) and Steelers (11-2) have better records than the Packers (10-3, tied with the Saints and Bills).
In 2011, the Packers were in nineteenth place at giving up points (22.4). They were last in giving up total yardage (411.6/game), and also last at yielding yardage through the air (311.8/game). The current defense is tied for 16th in giving up points (24.8/game). They are 8th best in total yardage given up, and they are 12th best in passing yardage yielded (226.0).
The 2011 Packers were second best in turnover differential (+24). The current team is tied for tenth best in turnover differential (+4).
Conclusions
The current Packers are a dynamo when it comes to scoring points, total yardage, and passing yardage – as was that marvelous 2011 team.
The current group’s winning percentage of .769 is very good, though it cannot match the earlier team’s .937 percentage.
The current team is decent at creating turnovers and preventing giveaways. They are nowhere near their 2011 counterparts, however, when it comes to turnover differential.
Which brings us to defense. The Packers are smack-dab in the middle of the league, at 16th, at giving up points. They are surprisingly competitive at giving up yardage overall (8th), and not even that bad (12th) at giving up passing yardage. Despite the Pack’s reputation of being unable to stop the run, they actually rank 11th best at yielding rushing yardage (109.7/game).
I should caution readers that rushing yardage totals can be especially misleading. Some teams that are pass-happy don’t rush for much yardage simply because they don’t attempt many run plays. For example, the Lions just rushed for only 51 yards, but that was because they only ran the ball 15 times.
The above analysis suggests that the current Packers are pretty darn comparable to the juggernaut the Pack assembled in 2011. Let’s hope, however, that they don’t share that team’s postseason fate. The best reason to think that won’t happen is because the team’s current defense, while not very good, is considerably better than the league-worst group we had to endure ten years ago.
Nor should we forget that turnover differential is the wild card in any NFL game, whether regular season or postseason.