As fans of the Packers and the NFL in general, we often spend time criticizing the General Managers. Bad draft choices, poorly reasoned contract extensions, allowing the “heart and soul” of your team to leave in free agency.
These are some but not all of the gripes that get stacked against your NFL front office front man. But now, all of us “know betters” have a chance to get a taste of the NFL draft.
Through the NFL draft simulators available that allow you to show off your own personable creative genius outside Brian Gutekunst. Pro Football Focus has one, but I prefer the free (no sign up required) nflmockdraftdatabase.com.
Yes, it’s a mouthful but once you try it, the addiction can be stronger than hot coffee in the morning.
It can also give you a general idea of rankings for players and while there is no way to tell if this programmed bot is anywhere close to the decisions made in the 32 actual ego driven NFL war rooms, it gives you an idea of how the names will drop and potential strategies for creating targets on your draft board.
After playing the simulator over 100 times, I am impressed but have a couple of observations.
First, while the the draft board board at the start seems to be almost identical with each attempt, my drafted players never came out exactly the same.
Proposed trades pop up that you can accept or reject change in every game, and you can propose your own trade to trade up. By changing strategy, trading up and down, you can see how the board changes when your draft position is different.
Realizing that this bot is not the real thing and that position rankings have changed as pro days and combine results are factored into draft boards, the Packers needs seem to be a good fit for the talent that is reachable with their draft picks.
Linebackers start coming off the board early in the second round. There is a clump of linebackers that start with Edgerrin Cooper, and go as follows:
- Edgerrin Cooper LB Texas A&M. (44)
- Payton Wilson. LB N.C. State. (46)
- Junior Colson LB. Michigan (56)
- Jeremiah Trotter LB. Clemson. (80)
- Cedric Grey. LB. N.C. (93)
- Tommy Eichenberg. LB. O.S.U. (123)
- Marist Liufau. LB. N.D. (140)
- Trevin Wallace. LB. Kentucky. (155)
With the need at linebacker being a key to filling out the roster, if this board holds true the Packers can spend a second-round pick on Cooper and then a third rounder on Trotter or Grey or even more likely, a fourth-round pick or move up their 5th round pick for the high RAS testing Wallace who they brought in for a pre-draft visit.
If the Packers draft LB with one second round pick, they can rotate to their second big defensive need, safety. Except for Minnesota’s Tyler Nubian who ran slow at the combine and may drop, the safety group all slot in after that 58th overall pick. The safeties are listed on the bot’s big board as follows:
- Tyler Nubian Safety MN. (41)
- Javon Bullard. Safety. Georgia (70)
- Kamren Kinchens Safety Miami (71)
- Caleb Bullock Safety U.S.C. (73)
- Cole Bishop Safety Utah (85)
With new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley focusing on sure tackling, the Packers could wait on a safety until the second of their round two picks at number 58 and take Bishop who ran a 4.45 forty and then get a second safety later in the draft.
Darrion Taylor-Demerson (Texas Tech) is only 5’10” but can play the deep zone, (ran a 4.41 forty) has good ball skills and comes down hard to tackle, although his overall tackling success needs improvement.
The deeper you go in the draft the harder it is to find a fast safety that is interchangeable and can play both deep half and near the line of scrimmage.
Additionally, the two highest ranking safeties, Nubian and Kinchens tested slow which could dramatically impact team draft strategies. ESPN has already dropped Kinchens to their 8th best safety, ranking at 106 overall. I would not be surprised to see Green Bay draft two safeties on day two of the draft.
The next big need is offensive line, both tackle and interior positions. The high ranked tackles all go off the board early. In more than half of the 100 simulations either Taliese Fuaga, Troy Fauntanu, or Tyler Guyton, were on the board as the Packers #25 pick came to the podium.
On most of the simulations Graham Barton was available. If Barton is available, he checks a lot of Packer boxes. He has played tackle and center and tested well in speed and agility. His only limitation is short arms for a tackle (32 7/8 inches) For comparison Elgton Jenkins has 34 inch arms.
Zach Tom’s arm length is 33 ¼. Tom overcomes his short arms with big hands that measure 10 ¾ inches. Barton’s hands measure much smaller 9 3/8 inches. The Packers brought in Tyler Guyton on a pre draft visit.
Guyton has only played right tackle but was protecting the blind side of a left-handed QB. Guyton is listed at #30 on the bot’s big board but if he goes early as tackles often do, Green Bay may miss out on a true tackle prospect. An AFC scout quoted anonymously on NFL.com says he believes Guyton will “catch fire” and be drafted early.
Will it be at number 25? Interior line options are also present in the second and third rounds.
In my simulations the tackles that seemed like they might fit in rounds two or three were Blake Fischer of Notre Dame (bot listed at #103) and Matt Goncalves of Pitt. (129) Goncalves is coming off a season ending toe injury so if the Packers don’t invite him to a pre-draft visit he might be off their board. He did participate in the Pitt pro day in late March but had only been training for three weeks.
He posted a 5.06 unofficial 40 time and a 30 plus inch vertical. He is a big risk-reward pick. One late round option might be Caeden Wallace from Penn State. (Bot ranked 235- seventh round)
The Packers will probably draft a running back to fill the future of the position. Wisconsin fans might cheer for the Packers to draft Braelon Edwards (bot ranked at #102) but former Badger Isaac Guerendo who ran an impressive 4.33 forty at 221 pounds at the combine might be the better choice and fit with the Packers picks as he is ranked 23 slots behind Edwards. (Bot ranked 125).
If those two are too rich for the Packer’s tastes Perdue’s Tyrone Tracy Jr. is ranked in the lower part of the 5th round. (bot ranked 173)
On the defensive line the Packers have met with O.S.U.’s Michael Hall Jr. (bot ranked at 62- end of second round) and Khristian Boyd (bot ranked 149- middle of round 5)
The Packers ability to draft a corner that is regarded as a potential starter will be perhaps the most complicated choice that could impact other options and the ability to secure talent at other positions. In a few of the simulations Kool-Aid McKinstry was available.
McKinstry has a foot injury issue he played through during the season. The other potential first round cornerback option potentially available, Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, is just getting cleared for football workouts the first week of April. In only a handful of the 100 simulations was DeJean available at 25. With starting caliber corners already on the team, the Packers could focus on options later in the draft.
Khyree Jackson, the 6’4” corner from Oregon (bot ranked at 84-middle of round 3) or Jarrion Jones who the Packers have already met with in a pre-draft visit (bot ranked at 96-end of round 3) Another option could see the Packers taking an injury flyer in the 7th round on Tennessee’s Kamal Hadden who had season ending shoulder surgery.
He ran a 4.53 forty and jumped 34’5 inches on the vertical jump. (Bot ranked 206-middle of round 6). The Packers also brought in Maryland’s Ja’Quan Sheppard (bot ranked 323) and Nebraska’s Omar Brown. (Bot ranked 389) for predraft visits.
The Packers have a young stock of pass catchers, but it would not surprise anyone to see one tight end and a wideout selected with one of the eleven draft picks available to Green Bay.
Tip Reiman (bot ranked at 176- last pick in round 5) is an intriguing prospect. At 6’5” and 271 pounds he is bigger than current Packer tight ends, but he ran an impressive 4.64 forty time at the combine and his tape shows he is a tough blocker.
He caught 19 passes including three touchdowns for Illinois last season. He was a walk on that became a team captain. There are numerous articles floating around calling Reiman a potential “diamond in the rough”.
Looking at wide receivers you can still find speed in the late rounds. Bub Means from Pittsburgh is ranked in the seventh round (bot rank #232) and at 6’1” 212 lbs he ran a 4.43 forty at the combine. Jha’Quan Jackson from Tulane ran a 4.42.
There are also edge players available with potential in every round. From Penn State’s Chop Robinson at 28 to Washington’s Zion Tupuola-Fetui at 227.
If you line up all the Packer draft picks, eliminate trades up or down and just fill in players available at those picks, the 2024 Packer draft can look like this.
- 25: Kool-Aid McKinstry CB/Alabama (Rank:25)
- 41: Edgerrin Cooper LB / Texas A&M (Rank 44)
- 58: Jeremiah Trotter Jr. LB/Clemson (Rank 80)
- 88: Blake Fisher OT/Notre Dame (Rank 103)
- 91: Dadrion Taylor Demerson Safety/Texas Tech (Rank 99)
- 126: Khristian Boyd. DL/ Northern Iowa (Rank 149)
- 169: Hunter Nourzad C-Guard/PennState (Rank 174)
- 202: Josh Proctor Safety/ Ohio State (Rank 202)
- 219: Caedan Wallace OT/ PennState (Rank 235)
- 245: Frank Gore Jr. RB/ Southern Mississippi (Rank 257)
- 255: Xavier Weaver WR/ Colorado (Rank 290)
Another possible draft from the Bot:
- 25: Tyler Guyton OT/Oklahoma. (Rank 30)
- 41: Edgerrin Cooper LB/ Texas A&M (Rank 44)
- 58: Cole Bishop or Javon Bullard/ Utah & Georgia (Ranks 85 & 70 respectively)
- 88: Zak Zinter OG/ Michigan (Rank 102)
- 91: Jarrion Jones CB/ Florida State (Rank 96)
- 126: Khristian Boyd. DL/ Northern Iowa (Rank 149)
- 169: Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB/ Perdue (Rank 173)
- 202: Josh Proctor Safety /Ohio State (Rank 202)
- 219: Caedan Wallace OT/ PennState (Rank 235)
- 245: Marcellus Dial. CB/ S.Carolina (Rank 248)
- 255: Trey Taylor Safety/ Air Force (rank 275)
Give the bot a try and post your best draft. Good luck!
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