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Will My Warnings Ever Be Heeded?

Rob Born by Rob Born
December 23, 2021
in Articles & Analysis
28

I issued an earlier warning here on total Packers halfway into the season. Green Bay had just stolen a game from the Cardinals, which placed them at a commanding seven wins and one loss. While most everyone else was celebrating the team’s good fortune, I was disturbed. Here’s the cautionary message I dispatched in my October 31 posting:

“. . .I couldn’t help but notice how the Packers assumed an all-too-familiar defensive posture for much of the second half that allowed the Cards to move freely down the field at the cost of using up a lot of time. I believe that Murray had only about 71 passing yards in the first half, but finished the game with 274. Fans have seen this strategy employed by the Pack for much of the past decade or more. I believe that what the Packers employed for most of the second half was a classic prevent defense, which basically allows short completions in exchange for discouraging long completions, and so the game time expires before the opponent can outscore the team that has a sizable lead. You can argue that it worked, but I despise it in all but exceptional cases.”

After watching the Packers nearly blow another big lead on Sunday, I checked to see how many others in the media saw what I saw – but I came up empty. I even Googled “Packers prevent defense”, but came up with no recent matches. The search did, however, produce one not-so-recent hit, from back in late 2016. Here’s what one pundit posted, under the heading “Packers Should Abandon the Prevent Defense”, on 12.22/16:

“The thrilling victory by the Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears was great, but it tended to mask one of the most exasperating flaws of the team during the entire Mike McCarthy era: overuse of the prevent defense.”

That pundit went on to detail how the Packers, with a minute left in quarter three, and having established a commanding 27-10 lead, then employed their customary prevent defense strategy. The post related how the Bears responded by generating a 75-yard TD drive, in two and a half minutes, and without ever getting into a third down situation. Green Bay, having lost its momentum, replied with a three-and-out, taking barely two minutes off the clock. The Bears proceeded to reel off a 9-play, 78-yard TD drive, consuming only three and a half minutes. It was now 27-24. A second consecutive Green Bay three-and-out followed, and the Bears still had 5:42 left on the clock. This time they engineered a 14-play,75 yard drive. Thanks to Micah Hyde (playing the Darnell Savage role) knocking down an otherwise 4-yard TD pass, the Bears had to settle for a field goal that tied the game.

matt lafleur dec 2021 | Will My Warnings Ever Be Heeded?
Dec 19, 2021; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

To summarize, in 15 minutes the Bears offense, which for the first three-fourths of the game had been impotent, ran off 29 plays, which gained 221 yards, and scored 17 points. Yes, a talented Green Bay team, which went on that season to the conference championship game, allowed a lousy Bears team (3-13), and a below-average quarterback (Matt Barklay) to pass for 362 yards on the day. It took Aaron Rodgers to prevent a calamity: in the final 1:17 he drove the team down to where Mason Crosby kicked a 32-yard winning field goal as time expired. By the way, that game took place on December 18. It all sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

What will it take for the Packers’ head coach – who is the one accountable for such a strategy – to wake up and recognize the disadvantages of employing a prevent defense after Green Bay has dominated a weak opponent and run up a healthy lead? Can’t LaFleur see that the strategy breaks his team’s momentum – both offensively and defensively? It provides the losing team with sudden and positive momentum and confidence. It allows lesser quarterbacks to get into a short-pass rhythm, and look like All-Pros as they complete pass after pass without defensive resistance. At the same time it diminishes the influence of the better quarterback on the game’s outcome. It also is no coincidence that the team in the lead suddenly cannot get a first down to save its life – but that’s a phenomenon that would take more time to develop.

It allows the opposition to run off long drives with few prospects of facing third or fourth downs. Defenses become static and predictable. Those quick and short completions hinder a team’s pass rushers from putting any pressure on the opposing quarterback. By playing off and behind receivers, defensive backs are prevented from knocking down passes or making interceptions. As we saw on Sunday, having defenders playing back also allows mobile quarterbacks to easily gain 10 to 15 yards by taking off running – and usually getting out of bounds and stopping the clock.

The similarities of that 2016 Bears game, and the 2021 Cardinals game, to Sunday’s Ravens’ game are eerie – and depressing. I assume readers have by now correctly surmised that I was the author of that post of five years ago. Though I remain a big fan of coach LaFleur, I have to say it: coach, you managed Sunday’s game just the way Mike McCarthy did against the Bears five years and one day ago.

Coach LaFleur, on Sunday, with 9:26 left on the clock you permitted an inferior team (due to missing players) to run off a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown. Then after the first of two three-and-outs, and with 2:23 remaining, you enabled the Raves to pull off a 7-play, 49-yard touchdown leading to that two-point conversion attempt. It was so easy that the Ravens still had 42 seconds on the clock, and an unused timeout.

This team needs to do better, and play smarter, than that. With a two-touchdown lead and four minutes left, maybe a prevent defense is appropriate, but not with almost ten minutes remaining. And by the way, how can anyone tell a prevent strategy is been employed? When the two outside corners are 10 yards off the line of scrimmage on every play, and the two safeties are 20 yards or so back (taking them completely out of the action) it’s pretty safe to say you’re looking at a prevent defense.

The media has been reporting the game as a “furious” and stirring comeback led by young and talented Huntley. Wrong. It was a thoughtless and miss-timed strategy, gifted to Harbaugh and the Ravens by the gracious leave of Coach LaFleur.

This game needn’t have been a few Darnell Savage fingertips away from a loss to a team missing its star quarterback and a boatload of other players. That makes it twice on the year that prevent defenses should have resulted in losses, but for a stroke of luck – dumb luck.

Tags: defenseMatt LaFleurprevent defense
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Comments 28

  1. Avatar for Tom M Tom M says:
    1 year ago

    Your point is well taken Rob. When we played the Cardinals, Kyler Murray was the leading MVP candidate at the time and we were underdogs on the road. It’s not surprising Murray got his stats. Weeks 2 thru 10 we had what appeared to be a championship defense. Since week 11 we’re giving up 30 points a game and it’s been anything but. While everyone gushes over Aaron Rodgers stats since week 11, we’ve been down this road time and time again. And it always ends in disappointment. We need the defense to be great to stand a chance in the post season. Putting all your eggs in the Aaron Rodgers basket won’t cut it. Now, to be fair, since week 11. Gary missed a game as did Clark and possibly Preston. While Alexander remains out. The schedule has been brutal and half of Chicago’s points came off of special teams. And I’m a big believer in getting everyone healthy in December to make a January run. What Huntley was able to do at the end was concerning but the closest to Huntley we’ll get in the playoffs is Murray who we’ve already been able to beat. Getting Alexander back and staying healthy will fix a lot of the recent problems on defense. Just remember Rob, it’s all about Aaron Rodgers and his stats and awards. Be content with that. Blame others for playoff losses.

    • Avatar for Bruce J. Kennett Bruce J. Kennett says:
      1 year ago

      I think the tree and outs were all due to a certain qb’s desire for a certain to record…

      • Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
        1 year ago

        Stay in school kids.

        • Avatar for Stickman Stickman says:
          1 year ago

          HAHAHA PF4L you make me laugh more times than not.

    • Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
      1 year ago

      Thank you Stickman.
      Glad you enjoy.
      I got a dope sense of humor brah :)

    • Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
      1 year ago

      During those games that the defense was giving up 30 PPG.
      .
      Thank God for the old man and the offense scoring 35.75 PPG.
      .
      I heard someone say “Rodgers was playing to his age” this season.
      .
      I’m not sure what that person (my bitch) was talking about.
      .
      Maybe he should stick to what he does best, keeping the drive thru moving.

  2. Avatar for BigSpiker BigSpiker says:
    1 year ago

    Especially when you face a QB that is not accurate on deep passes. One could argue that the Cardinal deep threat was legit and gave a valid reason for the approach but Huntley?

  3. Avatar for Ferris Ferris says:
    1 year ago

    We, we , we, we’re, we’ve, we’ll, we’ve. Blah Blah Blah. We sure are busy.

    • Avatar for Empacador Empacador says:
      1 year ago

      Deep breaths Ferris, deep breaths. Select whose comments you read wisely. Don’t waste time reading drivel you know is gonna work that blood pressure. Merry Christmas my dude! That goes for most of the rest of you savages as well. Peace!

      • Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
        1 year ago

        Always a pleasure Empac.
        Good words of wisdom.
        May you and yours enjoy each others company celebrating a joyous holiday season.
        Be safe.
        .
        Best wishes for the New Year – PF4L

      • Avatar for MMSUCKS MMSUCKS says:
        1 year ago

        Merry Christmas to you as well Empacador! As well as to the rest of you guys . . . Peace and Love! Stay safe!

      • Avatar for Ferris Ferris says:
        1 year ago

        120/70…I’m good. Thanks for the concern though. Holiday wishes to almost everyone who posts. Only a few exceptions. :)

        • Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
          1 year ago

          118/80….12/21/21

    • Avatar for Tom M Tom M says:
      1 year ago

      I hope little Ferris has a Merry Christmas! God bless us, everyone!

      • Avatar for Ferris Ferris says:
        1 year ago

        Thanks Tom. To you too. New Years resolution for me, try to stop being so hard on Tom. I guess he’s a Packer fan. For Tom…No use of we when talking about a team… with the only exception being for a college team that you played for or maybe if you attended the school. But even then it’s a stretch. :)

  4. Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
    1 year ago

    Just the opposite happened in the last Bear game, i’m going by memory here because i’m too lazy to double check.
    .
    The Bears scored 27 points by halftime, and gained about 240 yards against the Packers defense before the 3rd quarter.

    Against the Bears offense….really?
    .
    The defense mostly shut them down in the second half, but also got an assist by the offense in the 2nd half with a great T.O.P. advantage if memory serves.
    ************************
    Speaking of the defense (again by memory)….
    I think the Packers gave up about 18 PPG in the first 10 games.
    In the last 4 games they have given up almost 30 points a game.
    Ummmm….that’s going the wrong way come playoff time.

    • Avatar for Robster Robster says:
      1 year ago

      There appears to be some confusion here. I cited three games as examples of Packers prevent defenses that should have resulted in losses: the Bears game of 12/18/2016, the Cards game of 10/28/21, and the team’s most recent game, against the Ravens. I picked those three because immediately after each of those games I ranted about the prevent defense strategies that Green Bay employed. If I weren’t also lazy, I’m confident I could fine many other examples over the last five years of the Pack either losing a game or putting what should have been a comfortable win in jeopardy by going “prevent.” It’s not just the Packers – I believe a majority of NFL teams has a tendency to try to protect a big lead in this manner. Most media people simply label the tendency “soft coverage.” Well, the soft coverage strategy should be a big issue, because when it is applied too soon, it can easily lead to Green Bay losing a game, and not just any game but one that the Packers had firmly in their control before they allowed the opposition to catch up. I’m perplexed that no one but me seems to be critical of this dangerous practice. Playing not to lose often results in the exact opposite of what is intended.

      • Avatar for Mick Mick says:
        1 year ago

        Good post Rob. I’ve been critical of this “prevent defense”/ “bend, but don’t break strategy” for years, along with others in here. I wish I had a $5 bill for every time GB has built a big lead, only to have to sweat it out until the final whistle. I could fund my pizza and beer bill without straining the budget. Rob has it pegged, “playing not to lose” is a more accurate description of this strategy. It became the usual plan under Capers’ reign as DC, and it’s still used (too often), today. To make it even more maddening, is dropping LBs’ into coverage—– which means fewer players to rush the QB; or to contain the QB from scrambling and extending the play. That only benefits the Offense, DB’s can only cover for so long. A good defensive secondary’s best friend, is a good pass rush. Seems to me the reasoning behind that strategy is hoping the QB makes mistakes and throws the ball up for grabs. But, how often does that happen; especially against veteran QBs? We all have nightmares of how Pettine used to drop his DBs 10-12 yards off the line of scrimmage, and we saw how effective that was. LaFleur needs to address this quick.

        • Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
          1 year ago

          Exactly right Mick….
          .
          Another name for prevent defense is bend but don’t break.
          It’s a term used for defenses that aren’t very good.
          .
          I and others have bitched about that for ages going back to Capers after 2010.
          It’s like rehashing the same old shit under different names.
          .
          Play to win i say, keep the hammer down, stay aggressive.
          If you lose playing aggressive, i can live with that.
          At least then, if you go down, you go down swinging.

  5. Avatar for Deepsky Deepsky says:
    1 year ago

    The best way to stop a come back late in the game is with a strong pass rush. The Packers pass rush is just OK. I’m hoping Z Smith comes back for the playoffs, but that’s looking less likely each passing week.

  6. Avatar for S.A.P. S.A.P. says:
    1 year ago

    Zadarius Smith, and Jaire Alexander are playmakers. It need’nt take Rodgers all 4 downs to move the ball down the field. We have paid Rodgers for a long time to do this. He controls the entire franchise, and pays himself dearly. When playoff time is finally here, and he is lacking weapons, or offensive players like linemen, he has him, himself to thank. It’s great to watch him almost get to the big game each year, yes, it’s so exciting ! But when crunch time is here, and he’s paying himself, but not conceding that management has a salary cap to deal with, and the Packers at some point will have to move forward without him. A cheaper QB is what Love will be, and with the money saved, by not giving it all to Aaron Rodgers, can be spent to help keep Jordan Love, and The Green Bay Packers successful in the future. Rodgers should remind himself, Nick Foles, can go win a Superbowl ! It doesn’t take the greatest QB to accomplish that task, it takes the best team !

    • Avatar for Ed Ed says:
      1 year ago

      Nice try there Killer.

      • Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
        1 year ago

        Lol….need’nt
        .
        Tommi, apparently hasn’t passed his GED exams yet.
        .
        Z Man is a playmaker?
        He’s no Preston Smith or Rashan Gary.
        .
        Hell, i heard somewhere where Z. Smith doesn’t even have any trade value.
        .
        I guess we live in a world where Gute thinks Jordan Love has trade value to move up in the draft, but signs an outside linebacker for 66 million who has no trade value.
        What say you Tommi?
        .
        I always thought playmakers had trade value.
        Go figure.
        .
        SKOL

      • Avatar for Ferris Ferris says:
        1 year ago

        So true. It’s like wearing a Saran Wrap mask.

        • Avatar for Empacador Empacador says:
          1 year ago

          Now that’s funny, I don’t care who you are! Saran Wrap FTW!

  7. Avatar for Mick Mick says:
    1 year ago

    Wishing to all a Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year!

  8. Avatar for PF4L PF4L says:
    1 year ago

    Merry Xmas you filthy animals.

  9. Avatar for Killer Killer says:
    1 year ago

    Merry Christmas to you all!

    I congratulate the referees on their fine victory over the Browns today.

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