Andrew Chitko is an excellent handicapper and a below average bettor. Although he is capable of uncovering keen insight in to sides and totals, he will almost certainly derail his profit margin chasing ridiculous parlays that have almost zero chance of cashing. Despite his self-awareness on these matters, expect the trend to continue until he hits a 12-teamer for a six-figure score. If he steps out of line and is convinced he has a lock, mortgage your house and bet the other way.
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The Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Sunday November 14, 2021 3:25PM CDT
Lines as of 11am Saturday via Bovada Sportsbook. (Click here to see all NFL current lines)
Packers -3 (-125)
Winning a lot of football games in succession isn’t easy in the NFL. And covering a bunch of games in a row against the spread (ATS) is even tougher. But that’s exactly what the Green Bay Packers have now done eight straight times in a row. Not since the Week 1 slaughter in Jacksonville at the hands of the New Orleans Saints have those backing the Pack felt the bitter sting of defeat. Even Jordan Love’s unimpressive debut at quarterback was good enough for a backdoor cover against the Chiefs last week. The Packers are currently 8-1 ATS ON THE YEAR which is the best in the NFL. And the stage is set for them to improve upon that as they face the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field on Sunday.
In addition to those eight covers in a row, the Packers have also gone under the total in the last SIX STRAIGHT GAMES, which leaves them sitting at 2-7 O/U on the year! So to put it lightly, the Packers are streaking, and I don’t mean naked through campus to the Quad.
Strong Seattle Streak
The team from Green Bay isn’t the only one in the midst of a major trend towards the Under. The Seattle Seahawks, who have struggled the last few weeks without Russell Wilson, have gone under the total in SIX STRAIGHT GAMES as well, and sit with a record of 1-7 O/U on the year!
Like the Packers, the Seahawks have been a good team beating the number as well, as they currently sit with a record of 5-3 ATS. Despite losing two of their last last three with Geno Smith at quarterback, the Seahawks have covered in three straight. Getting Russell Wilson back will certainly improve their ability to win games and certainly will impact the number the Seahawks will be seeing on a week-to-week basis moving forward.
Series History Furthers Narrative
If you didn’t find the previous trends to be jarring enough to peak your interest, consider this: The Seattle Seahawks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last SEVEN STRAIGHT GAMES at Lambeau Field!
So that does it, right? Take the Packers and the Under and start figuring out how you’re going to spend it all when you hit that parlay at +244. (+244 means…2.44 to 1 odds. Ex. A $10 bet returns $34.36. The ten dollars wagered and the $24.36 odds.)
Not so fast there, Kaputnik. With Aaron Rodgers coming back from Covid-19 and Russell Wilson coming back from a month on the shelf, there is a reasonable chance that either one of the quarterbacks will play below expectation. But which one?
When it was announced Aaron Rodgers would return to the lineup and start versus Seattle, the over/under almost immediately shot up from 49 to 50.5, not an insignificant line move. However, the Packers line didn’t really budge. It stayed at Packers -3 (-125) to -3.5 (+100) in some shops. By the bettor’s rationale, Rodgers starting for the Packers increased the likelihood of more points being scored overall, but didn’t really change perception on the outcome of the game. I find that interesting while understanding a bookmaker’s reluctance to move off this crucial number.
So with that, I’m of the opinion that with the super-strong trends pointing to under for both teams, this most recent line move in the opposite direction and the chance that either one or both starting QBs struggle, the Under 50.5 is the value play. Will Rodgers and Wilson both play lights out coming off their respective situations? One wouldn’t think so. In fact, one would suspect just the opposite and because of this I would say avoid the side and lean towards under the total.
The Play: Packers/Seahawks Under 50.5
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