The Money Line: Trends Point To Packers and the Under Versus Seahawks
Andrew Chitko is an excellent handicapper and a below average bettor. Although he is capable of uncovering keen insight in to sides and totals, he will almost certainly derail his profit margin chasing ridiculous parlays that have almost zero chance of cashing. Despite his self-awareness on these matters, expect the trend to continue until he hits a 12-teamer for a six-figure score. If he steps out of line and is convinced he has a lock, mortgage your house and bet the other way.
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The Matchup: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
Sunday November 14, 2021 3:25PM CDT
Lines as of 11am Saturday via Bovada Sportsbook. (Click here to see all NFL current lines)
Packers -3 (-125)
Total: 50.5
Winning a lot of football games in succession isn’t easy in the NFL. And covering a bunch of games in a row against the spread (ATS) is even tougher. But that’s exactly what the Green Bay Packers have now done eight straight times in a row. Not since the Week 1 slaughter in Jacksonville at the hands of the New Orleans Saints have those backing the Pack felt the bitter sting of defeat. Even Jordan Love’s unimpressive debut at quarterback was good enough for a backdoor cover against the Chiefs last week. The Packers are currently 8-1 ATS ON THE YEAR which is the best in the NFL. And the stage is set for them to improve upon that as they face the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field on Sunday.
In addition to those eight covers in a row, the Packers have also gone under the total in the last SIX STRAIGHT GAMES, which leaves them sitting at 2-7 O/U on the year! So to put it lightly, the Packers are streaking, and I don’t mean naked through campus to the Quad.
Strong Seattle Streak
The team from Green Bay isn’t the only one in the midst of a major trend towards the Under. The Seattle Seahawks, who have struggled the last few weeks without Russell Wilson, have gone under the total in SIX STRAIGHT GAMES as well, and sit with a record of 1-7 O/U on the year!
Like the Packers, the Seahawks have been a good team beating the number as well, as they currently sit with a record of 5-3 ATS. Despite losing two of their last last three with Geno Smith at quarterback, the Seahawks have covered in three straight. Getting Russell Wilson back will certainly improve their ability to win games and certainly will impact the number the Seahawks will be seeing on a week-to-week basis moving forward.
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Series History Furthers Narrative
If you didn’t find the previous trends to be jarring enough to peak your interest, consider this: The Seattle Seahawks are 0-6-1 ATS in their last SEVEN STRAIGHT GAMES at Lambeau Field!
So that does it, right? Take the Packers and the Under and start figuring out how you’re going to spend it all when you hit that parlay at +244. (+244 means…2.44 to 1 odds. Ex. A $10 bet returns $34.36. The ten dollars wagered and the $24.36 odds.)
Not so fast there, Kaputnik. With Aaron Rodgers coming back from Covid-19 and Russell Wilson coming back from a month on the shelf, there is a reasonable chance that either one of the quarterbacks will play below expectation. But which one?
When it was announced Aaron Rodgers would return to the lineup and start versus Seattle, the over/under almost immediately shot up from 49 to 50.5, not an insignificant line move. However, the Packers line didn’t really budge. It stayed at Packers -3 (-125) to -3.5 (+100) in some shops. By the bettor’s rationale, Rodgers starting for the Packers increased the likelihood of more points being scored overall, but didn’t really change perception on the outcome of the game. I find that interesting while understanding a bookmaker’s reluctance to move off this crucial number.
So with that, I’m of the opinion that with the super-strong trends pointing to under for both teams, this most recent line move in the opposite direction and the chance that either one or both starting QBs struggle, the Under 50.5 is the value play. Will Rodgers and Wilson both play lights out coming off their respective situations? One wouldn’t think so. In fact, one would suspect just the opposite and because of this I would say avoid the side and lean towards under the total.
The Play: Packers/Seahawks Under 50.5
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I don’t know Andy. Can you be “an excellent handicapper and a below average bettor?” Always looking for that one big score? Good luck. You’ll need it. Fortunately gambling, along with alcohol, was never a vice I acquired. Women on the other hand. Brian Gutekunst’s team is by far superior to John Schneider’s team at virtually every position. Based on talent, the Packers should win. Gutekunst has out drafted and out GM’d Schneider over the last three years and it isn’t even close. While John Dorsey, another preferred GM candidate after Ted retired. Drafted Baker Mayfield and Denzel Ward instead of Josh Allen and Jaire Alexander. Then hired Freddy Kitchens as HC instead of Mike McCarthy or Matt LaFleur. And let’s not forget trading a first round pick for OBJ. Can’t imagine why he got run out of town. And then there’s Eliot Wolf. Many a Packer fan’s sentimental favorite to replace Ted. Is he even still in the NFL? Last I heard he was Belichick’s water boy. No one talks about him when GM openings come up. So go all in on the Packers Andy. I did last week and they couldn’t pickup a blitz or come up with a game plan to adjust to one. I’m just glad I didn’t bet the farm.
John Schneider’s best drafting came the few years after he left the Packers, when he drafted Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, etc. I always wondered if Schneider just walked off with the Packers draft prospect info. After those years, the only pro bowl picks have been a couple of receivers with a ton of first round draft busts.
Here is one important distinction between Gutekunst and John Schneider when comparing their accomplishments as General Manager.
Keyword….accomplishment
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Schneider turned over the Seahawks roster and built a winning SB team under his watch.
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Isn’t that how you measure a General Managers success in the NFL?
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Here’s an idea…….when Gutekunst accomplishes the same thing, we can then….and only then, compare the accomplishments of Schneider vs. Gutekunst.
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Sure….we could talk about Gutes draft picks, where he is batting around .500 in rounds 1 and 2.
About the league average.
But past the 2nd round…the rest of his picks is a short conversation….very short.
Both teams are top 10 in scoring defense. Even if the QBs are rusty both defenses are stingy in allowing scores. If the Packers defense could reduce the TDs allowed in the red zone they would be a top 5 scoring defense. The Seahawks defense is the opposite. They are stingy in the red zone but give up a lot of yards. It would be nice to see the Packers offense perform better in the red zone against a stingy red zone defense. Everything screams take the under. Isn’t that when you do the opposite? ;-)
I’ve said this before, but the fact that I’m in charge here instead of Howard goes to show meritocracy truly has no place in these modern times