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The Moneyline: Lafleur’s Impressive Streak Faces Tough Test

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The Matchup:

Los Angeles Rams


Green Bay Packers 

Sunday November 28, 2021 3:25PM CDT

Line as of 5pm Saturday via Bovada Sportsbook. (Click here to see all NFL current lines)

Rams -2 

Total: 47

Matt Lafleur has two and a half seasons under his belt as head coach of the Green Bay Packers. In that time, all he’s managed to do is put forth two 13-3 regular season records and two NFC Championship game appearances. As remarkable as that all is, what might be the most impressive is that as the leader of the Packers, Lafleur has never lost two games in a row.

That particular streak will be in serious jeopardy Sunday when the Packers host the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field as 2-point underdogs. The last time the Packers were home underdogs in a game where Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback was all the way back on December 11, 2016. That’s how rare this is.

And what happened on that 26-degree day when the 8-3-1 Seattle Seahawks sauntered into Lambeau Field as 3-point favorites over the 6-6 Packers? The Packers scored first and never trailed, Russell Wilson threw five interceptions and the Packers curb-stomped the Seahawks 38-10.

Three weeks prior to that, sitting at an all-but-dead 4-6, Rodgers said to a disbelieving press corps, “I think we can run the table. I really do.” And run the table they did, reeling off 6-straight wins in the regular season and two more in the playoffs in route to an appearance in the NFC title game.

A Rare Occurrence/Opportunity

In fact, the Packers are 4-1 ATS when a Rodgers-led Packers team is getting points at home. So maybe Lafleur’s streak isn’t in serious jeopardy after all. Perhaps this type of slight will provide the precise amount of disrespect needed to fully activate that chip on Rodgers’ shoulder we’ve all heard about for the last couple decades.

But at the same time, this feels a little different doesn’t it? This is a beat up team. This is a tired team. This is a team playing their third-string left tackle for crying out loud, a death sentence for mortal NFL clubs. This is a group in desperate need of their bye that sits on the horizon, just out of reach. And instead of motivational catch-phrases from their all-world quarterback, the Packers (and the rest of the world) instead got unwanted close-ups of his feet. Blech.

Not only did the Packers streak of nine successful covers evaporate with the loss last week to the Minnesota Vikings, but so did their run of seven straight games under the total. Meanwhile, the Rams started the season with four straight overs, but have now gone under the number in five of their last six. The over/under for this contest opened at 50 and has since plummeted to 47.

Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon (28) is congratulated for scoring his second touchdown by teammates wide receiver Davante Adams (17) and wide receiver Randall Cobb (18) during their football game Sunday, November 14, 2021, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin
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Cali Cool…But Cali Cold As Hell?

The temperature at game time Sunday should be hovering right around freezing. Not too bad for Wisconsinites, but maybe bad enough to push the team from Los Angeles to at least a measure of discomfort. More importantly than that, with the wind blowing in the neighborhood of 15 MPH steadily throughout the game on Sunday, it isn’t surprising to see the total drop in this manner.

At the end of the day this game could boil down to the performance of Yosh Niman, who will be protecting Aaron Rodgers’ blind side as the left tackle. David Bakhtiari continues to rehab his ACL from last year and with the loss of Elgton Jenkins last week with the same injury, the Rams will undoubtedly focus on Niman and try to wreak havoc on his game. It should be a dandy.

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Andrew Chitko

Andrew Chitko is an excellent handicapper and a below average bettor. Although he is capable of uncovering keen insight in to sides and totals, he will almost certainly derail his profit margin chasing ridiculous parlays that have almost zero chance of cashing. Despite his self-awareness on these matters, expect the trend to continue until he hits a 12-teamer for a six-figure score. If he steps out of line and is convinced he has a lock, mortgage your house and bet the other way.



  1. PF4L November 28, 2021

    Bovada Sportsbook and Live-Dealer Casino has multiple deposit/withdrawal options and 24-hour customer service.
    Line as of 5pm Saturday via Bovada Sportsbook.
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    Bovada Sportsbook, Casino, Live Casino, Racebook and Poker Room is your one-stop spot for all your online gaming interests. Learn more here!
    As far as the fluff in this commercial.
    I learned, if you bet trends last week ….you lost money.

  2. PF4L November 28, 2021

    Against the vikings……
    “TAKE THE UNDER!” – Andrew

  3. Howard November 28, 2021

    Did the over/under drop because of the weather, Rodgers toe/no practice, or because of all the ailments Stafford has been going through? Sore throwing arm/elbow, chronic back pain, and ankle injury. I would normally take the injury problems for Stafford as a bunch of crap, but as I previously commented Stafford has had a couple of bad games in a row against the Titans and 49ers. Stafford and the Rams offense did not look good/out of sorts. I thought it was just the Rams trying to expand their offense? However, it is may be more likely the Rams were trying to protect some of Stafford’s injuries/ailments. In the Titans and 49ers games you can in hindsight see how the alleged Stafford injuries might have impacted the Rams offense. Odd that all Stafford’s issues come out before this game and Stafford does not show up on injury reports.

    1. PF4L November 28, 2021

      The line, or the over/under gets adjusted as the money comes in, if the money is heavy, one way or the other, the line will adjust accordingly.
      Of course…the root of it is public opinion, Why are the gamblers betting a certain way as to move the line.
      Hard to say, could be a plethora of reasons, as you stated.