The Hindsight: Bets That Hit, That We Probably Missed

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The Green Bay Packers were in the midst of an epic run before they stumbled against the Minnesota Vikings this past Sunday. Not only did the loss end 9-straight ATS covers by the Packers, it also ended a streak of 7-unders in a row. To see a team on such a roll with both side and total is very rare…and now it’s over

If you were sharp enough to bet these plays without the luxury of hindsight, then that’s a job well-done. For the rest of us, we can only stare at the list below, shake our heads in dismay and utter repeatedly. “I knew it.”

AARON RODGERS OVER 300 YARDS PASSING & MVS OVER 100 YARDS RECEIVING (+1200)

If MVS were to have over 100 yards receiving in any game, isn’t it an almost-given Rodgers would be over 300? $100 returns $1300. Badda bing.

NO TURNOVERS (+900)

I actually looked long and hard at this offer and felt like it was a reasonable price. If the Pack and Vikes were to play this game under identical circumstances 9 times, isn’t it reasonable to assume one of those times would be a turnover-free game? I felt so, which made it a profitable bet. This was a missed opportunity. Not unlike Darnell Savage’s missed opportunity to make this bet a losing one.

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AARON RODGERS & KIRK COUSINS TO EACH THROW FOR 325 YARDS OR MORE  (+850)

AARON RODGERS & KIRK COUSINS TO EACH THROW FOR 300 YARDS OR MORE  (+400)

AARON RODGERS & KIRK COUSINS TO EACH THROW FOR 275 YARDS OR MORE  (+240)

To think how easily both players covered 275 yards is a little sickening. It is all so easy after the fact, right? Some really nice prices influenced by recent trends in the opposite direction. When you buck a strong trend, you can typically uncover some value that has accumulated along the way.

DAVANTE ADAMS & ADAM THIELEN 1+ RECEIVING TD EACH (+250)

I have no scientific or statistical data to back this up, but Adam Thielen ALWAYS scores against the Packers. ALWAYS! Doesn’t he? Sure seems like it. And you know Davante is usually good for one or more.

THIS WEEK: THE BEAT UP PACKERS TAKE ON THE WELL-RESTED RAMS

Rams at Packers

Line: Packers -1

Over/Under:  48

Click here to check the odds on all upcoming NFL games

Holy Toledo, Ohio! Pick ’em? This game is listed as pick ’em? What’s that you say? The Packers are actually favored? There must be a blizzard due to hit Sunday then. No? Actually, the forecast looks mild with an estimated temperature of 38 at kickoff. Practically balmy.

I love my Packers team but I think one should strongly consider backing up the Brinks truck, putting it all on the rested team coming off the bye and cheer like hell for the ultra-injured, ultra-weary team to make you pay dearly for your disloyalty. That’s how I’m leaning as we approach the Rams at Lambeau. BEEP. BEEP. BEEP.

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Image Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports