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Random Musings on this Team of Destiny

I don’t know how many NFL teams have an official historian, but the Packers do, and Cliff Christl has a book coming out in early December titled “The Greatest Story in Sports.” The timing is excellent, and the title is accurate. These 2021 Packers are in the midst of adding another chapter to the story.

It was a great win, and a gritty win, by a team with a bounty of resources: a great QB, All-Pros galore (though most are in recovery), developing second- and third-stringers, guys picked up off waivers or from practice squads who are outperforming expectations, several veteran leaders, a completely revamped coaching staff and front office, and a young but top tier head coach who’s gets better with every game. The victory over the Cardinals has to be one of the two or three most satisfying wins of the Rodgers era.

The Head Man

Surely this was Matt LaFleur’s best game as a head coach. He not only had this team ready to play and actually expecting to win, but he had a great game plan to counter the absence of the team’s top three receivers – and his play calling executed that plan to near perfection (except in the Red Zone). What else is there to say about the guy who has the entire – yes, him too – squad playing inspired, winning, and happy football?

The Next MVP?

Kyler Murray impresses even when he’s has a down game. You knew he would lead his team back late in the game, just like you know Russell Wilson will do the same. You knew he’d start running freely when the fourth quarter rolled around. Despite this, however, Kyler’s rushing line was only: 6 carries for 21 yards, and none longer than 9 yards. That’s a tremendous credit to the mostly unsung linemen and linebackers who maintained pocket integrity throughout the game.

Though Kenny Clark, Rashon Gary, and Preston Smith were quiet, up stepped De’Vondre Campbell (a sack and 2 TFLs), Dean Lowry (a sack and a TFL), Kris Barnes (4 tackles), Kingsley Keke, Tyler Lancaster, Whitney Mercilus, T.J. Slaton, and even Oren Burks (3 tackles).

Containing Murray

Historically, running quarterbacks have caused nightmares for Packers fans. Think: Colin Kaepernick, Michael Vick, Russell Wilson – and Fran Tarkenton for my age group. For the Packers to hold Murray to 21 rushing yards (3.5 average) was a credit to the Packers defenders as well as the defensive coaches who formulated the defensive game plan.

Murray didn’t run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, but there’s a video out there showing him matching Cards’ WR Andy Isabella stride for stride during a practice – and Isabella was timed at 4.31 seconds for the 40-yard dash at the 2019 Combine. So, how do you even find a defender who can conceivably shadow Murray?

Murray’s rushing yards are way down from both his rookie and sophomore seasons, when we ran 93 times for 544 yards and 133 times for 819 yards, but this is surely due to defenses being forced to concentrate on limiting that yardage. While Murray’s run production has fallen, however, his passer ratings have gone from 87.4 to 94.3 to 110.4 so far this season. In his seven previous outings he was only held below 104 once: against Jacksonville in Week 3, when his rating dipped to 93.1. So how did he do against a wounded Green Bay defense? 67.0!

Prevent Defense

The Pack’s conservative defensive game plan was pretty darn effective. In the Cards’ previous six games, they scored fewer than 31 points only once.

At the same time, however, I couldn’t help but notice how the Packers assumed an all-too-familiar defensive posture for much of the second half that allowed the Cards to move freely down the field at the cost of using up a lot of time. I believe that Murray had only 71 passing yards in the first half, but finished the game with 274.

Fans have seen this strategy employed by the Pack for much of the past decade or more. I believe that what the Packers employed for most of the second half was a classic prevent defense, which basically allows short completions in exchange for discouraging long completions. You can argue that it worked, but I despise it in all but exceptional cases (such as this one?). On the other hand, in the Cards’ previous six games, they scored fewer than 31 points only once.

Maybe the unusual circumstances of this game made the defensive strategy prudent. All the same, I hope we don’t see the strategy used with any regularity.

A Hard Lesson

Though Kylin Hill had been used only sparingly, Green Bay coaches viewed him as having good development potential. I’m all but certain that he was under orders not to run out any kickoffs that he caught in the end zone. Not only did he defy the instruction, but he came out stumbling and unbalanced, which rendered him unable to make enough off a maneuver to avoid a direct hit by the defender. As a result, a knee injury will cost him the rest of the season. I have doubts that this long-shot late seventh-round pick will ever again make an NFL roster.

I’ve seen many kickoff returners ignore all common sense and bring out a kickoff that carries well into the end zone. Such players are usually youngsters who seldom get on the field, so they become determined to prove themselves and maybe get promoted. The lack of discipline by Hill has likely cost him any future as a pro – it’s a shame, but coaches can no longer trust him to follow orders. Add to that: he was most fortunate not to have committed a costly turnover.

The Packers Faithful

How is it that Green Bay has so many raucous fans at games played at Glendale, Arizona? Is it because so many dairy-landers have retired to the desert? Are many of these fans snowbirds, who seasonally migrate to the warmer climes? Or maybe when local fans see a Packers’ game scheduled in Arizona, perhaps many of them plan a vacation there to include attending the game?

The Ground Attack

Based on the game against Washington, many were bemoaning the Packers’ rushing game. They didn’t get it that Coach LaFleur and his brain trust had a game plan focused on exploiting the WFT’s vulnerable secondary. The team willingly chose to all but abandon the run, so the fact that Jones, Dillon, and Hill had only 12 carries for 27 yards was inconsequential.

Ignoring that game, here’s what the run game has accounted for (not counting the QB’s runs) in the other three most recent games: 133 yards in 22 carries (6.0 ave.) against the Bengals; 24 carries for 135 yards (5.6 ave.) against the Bears; and 32 carries for 148 yards (4.6 ave.) against the Cards. Those are robust and encouraging numbers – league-wide, those numbers put Green Bay right around the top-five teams both in terms of rushing yardage and average yards per rush.

Oct 28, 2021; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) and teammates during the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Utilization of Aaron Jones

I’ve griped endlessly about this topic over the last four years. Finally, I have some positive news to report. Aaron Rodgers had 16 rushes and caught 7 passes on Thursday. Though his higher numbers were undoubtedly due to the lack of available receivers, Aaron’s productivity was on full display.

Despite the defense keying on the Packers RBs, and placing so many defenders in the box, Aaron averaged 7.3 yards on his seven catches, and 4.9 yards on his 15 rushes. In his four prior years in Green Bay, Jones has only once had as many as seven catches in a game. Last season, the most catches he had in a game was five. Seven catches would be a quiet day for the likes of Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey or the Saints’ Alvin Kamara. Kamara had 10 catches for 128 yards last Monday in the win against the Seahawks.

A.J. Dillon was right there with Aaron in terms of productivity, averaging 4.9 yards on his 16 carries. The Packers neglected, however, in failing to throw to Dillon even once in the game. In the team’s three most recent games, Dillon has only been targeted twice, and only produced two yards – which suggests that these were dump-offs, not pass plays designed for the big guy. Alas, now it’s A.J. who’s being underutilized as a receiver.

Over the long term, I suspect that Dillon will prove to be at least as valuable a receiver as Jones. He’s got great hands, he’s faster (4.53 vs. 4.56 dash time), and he’ll likely break more tackles than Jones evades.

All in all, the platooning of the team’s two fine RBs has been working out very well. It should also pay dividends in the second half of the season, as both players are not being overworked.

Rob Born

Smart drafters don’t select the best available players, they fill a team’s positions of greatest need.

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15 Comments

  1. Deepsky November 1, 2021

    De’Vondre Campbell is the main reason for the Packers improvement in defense this year, Campbell was a decent linebacker for the Falcons and Cardinals, but with the Packers he’s a Pro Bowler. He didn’t exactly spy Murray, but there were a lot of times you could see Murray wanted to run, but there was Campbell in the middle close to the line waiting for him. Campbell may have known Murray’s tendencies having played with him last year.

    Reply
    1. Mick November 1, 2021

      I agree! For the 1st half of the season, Campbell has to be the MVP on GBs’ defense. Having played for the Cards last year, he knew their offensive tendencies but, he has been solid all year— so far. Finally, they have a legitimate playmaker at ILB. So far, Campbell has 76 tackles, 1 sack, 2 ints’ , and 2 forced fumbles. Can’t remember when they had that kind of production at that position. Not too shabby for a FA pickup!

      Reply
    2. Robster November 1, 2021

      Stay tuned for my next post. Campbell’s come quite a ways since his days with the Blue Dragons at Hutchinson Community College.

      Reply
  2. Ferris November 1, 2021

    I would like to see a stat on how many kickoffs that reach into the end zone and are then returned make it past the 25. My guess is less than 10%. Take your knee and move on. Hill is done for the season/career and the guy who hit him looked dead. Next stop…no more kickoffs. They already have the fair catch rule in College.

    Reply
  3. Howard November 1, 2021

    I’m not so sure the Packers are going into prevent defense as much as the Packers defense has some problems getting aligned, making calls, and changing personnel when opponents go into hurry up mode. It has happened in a few games. Last year against at least the Colts and this year against the Cardinals, and I think the Bengals and maybe Steelers. Opponents will start taking advantage of the Packers earlier in games with hurry up if not corrected.
    .
    I still believe having Barry as the DC helps against the NFC West offenses as Barry has been game planning against those teams, players, and coaches at least twice a year for the last few years. I won’t take anything away from Campbell, he is playing very good. Campbell to me is Barry’s Corey Littleton. Littleton just made plays under Barry. Littleton has not done as well since going to the Raiders. Of course it helps having a guy like Aaron Donald in front of you. Barry and Campbell are a good marriage.

    Reply
    1. PF4L November 1, 2021

      I defer to Howard on these matters, but it seems to me the defense is more aggressive across the board.
      .
      The flash plays and the sacks, etc may not be there to lead the league, but to the eye test, they aren’t laying back as much and just seem to be going after it more.
      My .02
      But then again, isn’t that what MLF wanted, and the reason Pettine is gone?

      Reply
    2. Stickman November 1, 2021

      What I saw last week (I think) was there D was timid on hitting #28. QUADZILLA- I wonder if he’s a mudder?

      Reply
      1. PF4L November 2, 2021

        His mother was a mudder.

        Reply
  4. PF4L November 1, 2021

    I read the Title of this article, and frankly…i looked cross eyed at it
    .
    A team of destiny?
    I thought the last two seasons could have been a team of destiny.
    Based not on faith, but on the fact they got to one win away from the Super Bowl….twice
    .
    A game here, a game there, anything can happen right?
    .
    But beating Arizona means the same as beating the Titans last season…it means nothing, until it means something.
    If anyone understands that.
    .
    We’ve played and beaten some average to below average teams before the Cardinals. We are expected to beat them.
    We also got our asses handed to us by a team over .500
    .
    It’s great that we beat Arizona, the Pack won a game against a winning team. Fantastic….no one thought the Packers would win that game, or the odds were against them, me included.
    .
    But….they haven’t won anything.
    The vikings or bears, or lions could beat a very good team in the middle of the season, that doesn’t mean a damn thing.
    .
    Kudos to the Packers, well deserved win, but i’m not crowning them. Play the meat of your schedule and get to….and win…an NFCCG game….THEN…i’ll bring up a team of destiny.
    Not because they beat a good team in weak 8.
    .

    Reply
  5. Tom M November 1, 2021

    A QB’s best friend isn’t a second WR to pad his stats. It’s a running game. We’ve got that in spades with Dillion and Jones. And they’re both remarkably good receivers. This offense always works best when the ball is spread around. We’re now 7-0 in games Davante Adams has missed because it forces a more diverse game plan. We’re also 0-2 on his return from injury. It’ll be interesting to see if Rodgers reverts back to forcing everything to him Sunday at Arrowhead. Careful for what you wish for Rob. Jameis Winston got tackled attempting to run and is now done for the season. Lowry, Keke, and Clark are getting sacks because of the constant pressure provided by Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. Even Jonathan Gavin has flashed. The pass rush has masked a rookie corner on one side and a practice squad player on the other. Certainly Matt LaFleur deserves credit but the unsung hero here is Joe Barry. He’s got his unit playing inspired football, playing aggressive yet controlled. Murray didn’t run much because defenders stayed in their lanes. There’s just too much talent on defense for us not to be better than we were last year. Joe Barry is getting the most out of everyone. Now if we can just get Jaire Alexander back. We’ll need him come playoff time as we face the Bucs, Rams, and Cowboys.

    Reply
    1. PF4L November 3, 2021

      I think Rodgers best friend on this team is Randall Cobb, he served as best man at Cobb’s wedding.
      .
      It’s a damn good thing Gute had the good sense to go trade for Cobb, it helped us beat the Cardinals…no doubt.
      Plus Cobb’s tied for the team lead in TD receptions.
      Kudos GUTE!!

      Reply
  6. PF4L November 1, 2021

    I’m not so sure that the Packers 2021 season is going to add a chapter in a book about the greatest story in sports….but ok :)
    .
    I think when we bring up great Packer historians.
    It would be remiss not to mention the Legend, an icon in the history of the Green Bay Packers.
    The late great Packer historian Lee Remmell.
    .
    When Remmell was writing about the Packers. Cliff Christal was getting his diaper changed.
    .
    Packerfans should know of who I speak of.

    Reply
  7. Mick November 2, 2021

    Other news; the Packers have released LB Jaylon Smith after 2 games and 27 snaps……. per Packers Wire (Zach Kruze) Also, it’s reported that they are looking at TE options before the trade deadline.

    Reply
  8. Tom M November 2, 2021

    And speaking of TE’s. Jace Sternberger got released by Washington. There’s something up there. I don’t know if it’s drugs, or if he’s got a bad attitude, or what. You can’t tell me he’s not talented enough to come in and be a third or fourth string TE. He’s more talented than the guy they signed a few weeks back off someone’s practice squad. I don’t see Josiah Deguara or Dafney significantly better either. He knows the offense and he’s cheap. He can’t block but he’s more of a vertical threat than what you’ve got now….

    Reply
    1. PF4L November 3, 2021

      Gutes battle for a decent 3rd round pick, continues, and continues, and continues.

      Reply

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