The Crux of the [Rodgers] Problem – and the Resolution!

After a few sleepless nights, I think I’m starting to gain some insights to the crisis that suddenly afflicts the team and Packer Nation. I’m not talking about the fine details, I’m focusing both on what precisely provoked this predicament and how it can be resolved.

What is it that has Rodgers so peeved? I think we can eliminate a number of things, which he might be objecting to, or frustrated over, but which aren’t the reasons the organization is suddenly staring into a yawning abyss.

Let’s rule out the absurd notion that this is all about the money. We can also dismiss the argument that the Packers haven’t acquired enough quality receivers for Aaron to throw to. It’s true, but that’s not what this rift is all about. In particular, the claim that Aaron reached a breaking point over Green Bay letting Jake Kumerow go is bogus – that took place last September, and Jake has demonstrated over six years, and while with five teams, that he’s a borderline Pro player.

It is the Packers’ drafting of QB Jordan Love, on April 23, 2020, at the core of Rodgers’ displeasure. Undoubtedly. But that only begins to tell the whole story. Rodgers has definitely stewed over the drafting of Love for over a year now, but only recently has he concocted a plan to do something about it.

Though Rodgers is legally contracted/obligated to be with the Packers through the 2023 season, there are always loopholes, and many sports heroes over the years have brought enough external pressure to bear on their teams that their wishes or demands were granted. Since not long after the 2020 season ended, we now know that Rodgers has been asserting pressure on the team’s front office. This has been in the form of getting a contract extension very much to Rodgers’ liking. That behind-the-scenes drama suddenly went public last Thursday – the first day of the 2021 draft. Maybe it was merely the reminder of last year’s draft that caused Aaron’s meltdown.

Rodgers and the Packers have been deadlocked for some time now regarding efforts to extend his contract, and it seems that negotiations have broken down. The logical assumption is that Rodgers, who has previously declared he wants to play for the Packers for the rest of his career, is demanding an extension with language that essentially guarantees he will be Green Bay’s starting quarterback until HE decides otherwise. In other words, I suspect that Rodgers and his agent want to supersede general manager Brian Gutekunst’s authority.

Forget about all the smaller complaints and perceived slights. The crux of the matter is that Aaron wants ironclad job security.

He may get his way, but only if the team backs down, and in particular if CEO Mark Murphy folds under the pressure. Historically in the sports world, the team backing down has been the most common outcome when players hold out or demand to be traded.

The Options

As you might imagine, no team high official or owner wants to give a player carte blanche (complete freedom to act as one wishes or thinks best) in personnel matters. Not Brian Gutekunst, not Russ Ball, not even wishy-washy CEO Mark Murphy.

The sides are obviously at an impasse on this point. What we’re now witnessing, in my opinion, is an effort on Rodgers’ part to apply leverage.

To assert leverage, it appears Rodgers (through his surrogates or leakers) has gone public in hopes of getting fans to side with him and pressure team officials to give into his demands. Despite Rodgers’ immense popularity and likeability, my impression is that these efforts met with almost instant disdain by the fans and the general public. Rodgers doesn’t fit well into the role of an abused victim or underdog.

Since Plan A wasn’t gaining traction, Rodgers and his camp immediately rolled out Plan B: threatening retirement, rather than have to fulfill the remaining three years of his contract. Additionally, rumors have spread that he is trying to get the general manager fired – that’s yet another notion I think we can safely say isn’t going to happen, and probably isn’t even true.

Another leveraging effort is more likely: Rodgers might refuse to show up when the team assembles for the coming season. Historically, such holdouts are quite common, and more often than not they are effective. It all depends on how resolute, or stubborn, are the team’s top officials and owners.

The other option that is being urged is for the Packers to trade Rodgers. If team management doesn’t cave into a player’s holdout demands, this is the most typical resolution to such disputes. It would not shock me if this happens, though it appears that if it does it won’t be until early June, as until then there are financial reasons for holding off on signing such papers.

I’d estimate that in about 75% of these disputes, the result is that the player is traded. However, when it concerns a starting QB who’s the reigning MVP and who the entire roster and coaching staff have been built around, a trade becomes more of a challenge and more time-consuming. This isn’t on the level of trading away a disgruntled wide receiver.

For their part, the Packers quickly went on record as saying Rodgers won’t be traded. That’s also the response of most teams when these quarrels surface – though more often than not such promises are not kept.

Retirement?

Let’s explore the retirement option. Should Rodgers announce his retirement, he’ll owe the Packers lots of money, but that’s beside the point. For a guy who fervently desires to play until he’s at least 40, you’d think retirement is a non-starter.

There are a few sports stars who’ve actually carried out a threat to retire. Redskins’ running back John Riggins sat out the 1980 season. Montreal Canadiens’ hockey great Ken Dryden sat out the 1973 season. In each of these cases, however, the players and teams made up over time and the players returned the following year. This is an undesirable result, as both the players and the teams suffer – there are no winners.

Another example of the retirement threat is that of Edmonton Oiler superstar Mark Messier. In the aftermath of the 1990-91 season Messier was upset – interestingly, because the team let go of teammate Adam Graves. He issued a very public trade demand, and the team eventually caved. In what was announced as a cost-cutting move, Messier was traded to the New York Rangers for three players. Messier went on to play ten more seasons with the Rangers, including winning the Stanley Cup in 1994. The Oilers haven’t claimed the Cup once in the 30 years since Messier’s departure.

Reasons for Optimism

I don’t feel Rodgers will retire, and I don’t feel that other forms of holding out will be productive. Why? Because Rodgers is greatly concerned about his legacy. So, if the team stands firm – and that’s a big IF – my opinion is that this logjam can and will get resolved.

What is legacy all about for a sports hero? It’s like those who are still referred to as President, Governor, or Judge even though they’ve retired from those jobs twenty years ago. It’s being paraded onto the field before a game and being individually introduced 30 years after you’ve last picked up a ball. It’s having fans line up at your table in Vegas to pay for your signature – though it’s been 40 years since you’ve played the game. It’s having your name permanently displayed in two-foot high letters at the stadium. It’s having your jersey number retired. It’s having a wing of the local hospital named after you. Most importantly, it’s showing your children and grandchildren your MVP trophies. It’s about leaving lasting memories.

Legacy takes on a special meaning in a place like Green Bay, where revered players are considered not just a player on a team, but a part of the community. Rodgers cares greatly about his legacy. Like most great players, he’s driven by the desire to accumulate records, win awards and honors, and be singled out as one of the all-time greats. We also know he’s concerned about his legacy because he’s told us so.

Aaron Rodgers is one of a kind. Over his 16 years with the Packers, he’s made few false steps. He’s been a choir boy, a boy scout, the ideal teammate, and “the team leader.” His image has been glimmering, and his standing as a good guy has up to now been nearly impeccable. He’s been a public relations dream.

At this very moment, however, Rodgers is in grave danger of damaging the reputation he has so painstakingly built up. While many sports legends have tarnished their legacies, some have reclaimed a portion of it as the years passed by. Think Brett Favre. I personally will never feel quite the same about Rodgers again.

Though Aaron might still not grasp it, he has significantly sullied his reputation and image over the past week. Instead of being known as a team guy, he suddenly appears to be a me-first guy: self-absorbed, power-wielding, bitter, vengeful, even disloyal. He’s bitten the hand that feeds him.

Since the story broke, what little we’ve heard from Rodgers is second-hand. Reporter Mike Tirico briefly talked to him at the Kentucky Derby, and related this: “He expressed a couple of times how much he loves Green Bay, loves the fans, loves the franchise.”

Aaron’s actions belie his soothing words. In allegedly demanding to be traded, he’s turning his back on not only all of his teammates, but on every employee of the team, and all his fans. One media person even termed Rodgers as having a “scorched-earth mindset.” Yikes.

As I said a few days ago, Aaron needs to “step up and personally and publicly address this issue – right away.” Remaining silent at this stage strikes me as lack of leadership at best, and cowardice at worst. It just allows the wound to fester. While he’s at it, he might at least express some sympathy toward Jordan Love, a 22-year-old who through no fault of his own has been cast as a villain.

Depending on the circumstances, sometimes sports holdouts have drawn sympathy and support among their fans, and Rodgers might yet turn the tide and achieve such an outcome. I doubt it, however, for to date the Rodgers camp has come across more as vengeful and vindictive than principled. Aaron appears to have a very fragile psyche, and this is just another occasion that it’s been on display.

The Solution

So long as the Packers’ front office remains firm in its convictions (the big IF), it becomes in Aaron’s best interests to settle this dispute. Aaron instigated this, so it’s now his move. The solution is simply to come to an agreement on the terms of a contract extension.
There’s plenty of ways each side can find to “meet in the middle.” We don’t know what in the Packers’ extension offer Rodgers is unwilling to accept. The Packers can probably give in a bit, but not to the point of letting the player dictate who will be the starter and certainly not who the teams will acquire as a back-up (and probable successor).

Though Aaron already has a contract through 2023, the current deal is written in a way that makes it easy for the team to tear it up, either after 2021 or 2022. There’s no doubt in my mind that the Packers were contemplating trading Rodgers after 2021 or 2022 if his production continued to decline as it had over the previous four years – and of course depending on how well Jordan Love was progressing.

The team’s front office has not only a right, but an obligation, to make plans for eventually replacing Rodgers. Given Rodgers’ fabulous turnaround in 2020, the team should have no hesitancy in extending his contract through 2024 or maybe even 2025 – when he’ll be 42 by season’s end.
If Rodgers and his agent insist on an ironclad “no trade” provision, however, I’d view that as unreasonable and as a deal breaker. No player should be allowed to supersede the decision-making of an owner or general manager. If that’s what the Rodgers camp is insisting upon, then I say end negotiations, force Aaron to play through 2021, and then trade him.

I wonder what the parties would think of a provision whereby Rodgers is flat-out guaranteed to be the team’s starting QB so long as he maintains a passer rating of 100 or greater over the previous year. That means he’d have to perform right about at the level of a top-10 quarterback – if he fell below that standard the team could of course still choose to keep him. Sounds fair to both sides to me.

In sum, there are countless ways in which Aaron can be given strong assurances that he’ll be the starting quarterback for years to come, but no player he should be given a no-trade guarantee, and especially not after one has reached the age of 40.
There’s also the matter of saving face. By throwing in a few provisions that benefit one side or the other, each side can claim that they compromised a bit for the good of the team.

I also remain in favor of Jordan Love being traded (for a player or a high draft pick). That would achieve a trifecta: it might appease Rodgers, It would give the team a good return on its first-round investment, and, the way Aaron is playing, it would be doing Love a favor, rather than consigning him to warming the bench for four or five years.

Maybe we can still have a “Summer of Love” in Green Bay in a month or so.

Note: In a day or so I’ll publish some research on other times mega-sports stars have held out, demanded a trade, or made threats to retire – and what the outcomes were.