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Breaking Down the Main Betting Lines for the Packers’ Season Opener

Most Packers fans will have a fair idea of where the team stands in the eyes of sportsbooks as we
move towards the start of the 2020/21 NFL season. The Green and Gold are firmly in the middle
ground, ranging around 12th -18th place in the average odds for Super Bowl LV success, with the most
common price around the 25/1 (+2500) mark.

For the moment, though, let’s leave that aside, and take a look at the first game of the Packers’
regular season. As fans will be aware, it’s a visit to the home of NFC North rivals, the Minnesota
Vikings, on September 13th . The two teams are co-favorites to win the division (more on that later),
so this match-up could be crucial to both gaining early momentum and qualification for the NFL
Playoffs. Yes, Week 1 is often too early to make assumptions, but we could be talking about fine
margins this season.

Below we take a look at the main betting markets for the game, as well as seeing if we can glean
anything about the season ahead. Odds are taken from 888sport, which is a good source for NFL
betting tips, but they are, of course, subject to change between now and game day in mid-
September.

Game Winner:

Vikings 11/20 (-182), Packers 6/4 (+150)

As you can see, the Vikings are reasonably well-backed to take the win in the season opener. The
Packers won both games against Minnesota last season, including a memorable performance that
saw them clinch the division last December. As mentioned, the two teams have almost identical
odds to win the division this term, and they are practically tied in most metrics in the countless NFL
power ranking articles you will see online. So, you’d have to gather that the Vikings are favored for
this game because of home advantage. And yet, will that count for as much when there are not
60,000+ fans packed into U.S Bank Stadium? We don’t know the prospect of games without fans will
affect team performances this season, but you can almost be sure that it will help the visiting team.

Over/Under:

Over 46.5 pts 10/11 (-110), Under 46.5 pts 10/11 (-110)

This is always an interesting market, and it is arguably geared towards those who use statistics for
betting. Of the last 12 meetings between the Packers and Vikings, only two have seen a combined
score over 47 points – the 29-29 draw at Lambeau Field in 2018 (where the Vikings scored 22 in the
4th quarter) and the memorable 38-25 win for the Packers back in 2016. In the early 2010s, there was
a general trend for the teams to have more high-scoring clashes than they have in the last few years.
So, can we make any assumptions for the odds-setters putting a higher band on the game totals? It’s
probably more about doubts over Minnesota’s defense than anything else. Can the Packers punish
them? It remains to be seen.

The Spread:

Vikings -3.5 (10/11), Packers +3.5 (10/11)

The spread is, of course, going to reflect the main money line betting markets, and -3.5 seems about
right in relation to those odds. Let’s be clear: Most Packers fans won’t really care if the victory comes
by three points or thirty-five points, although they will certainly cherish the bragging rights that
would come with the latter. Betting on the spread in a game is often a double-edged sword for fans
of a particular team, and it can be painful for bettors in very close games. While Minnesota vs
Packers games tend to be quite close in recent years – more often than not within 10 points – it’s
still difficult to make a case for backing the Green and Gold with a few points theoretical advantage.

If you believe they will take the win, then back them in the main market for better odds without the
handicap advantage.

 

Green Bay Packers TE Jace Sternberger catches TD against San Francisco 49ers

Jan 19, 2020; Santa Clara, California, USA; Green Bay Packers tight end Jace Sternberger (87) scores a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers during the second half in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Ed Rooney

Just a guy with too much free time trying to help out.

    1

17 Comments

  1. S.A.P. July 21, 2020

    Lacking practice will hurt, and the Vikings will be using some new faces. Rodgers hasn’t been on target for a long time now, and he’s undisciplined as well. This game should certainly belong to the Packers, in consideration of all of the experienced players that the Vikings have lost. RB Cook and Coach Mike Zimmer will both be lost, and lacking new contracts. WR Diggs is finally gone, so there are less distractions, and targets for Kirk Cousins. The Packers will probably be after Cousins, early and often. Without Diggs, Cook, and Cousins, the Minnesota Vikings should be no match for Green Bay.

  2. PF4L July 23, 2020

    “It was back to more of a normal year for us,” Murphy said.

    I would agree, after missing the playoffs two years in a row, we saw more of the normal embarrassment of the Packers deep in the playoffs.

    You’d like to think that with LeFleur’s knowledge of Shanahan, plus the experience of playing the 49er’s already in late November, they have a better game plan and would be more competitive than getting blown out 27-0 at halftime.

    2011-2019

    Normal

  3. PF4L July 23, 2020

    This article below by Frank Schwab is a pretty good read. On thing he didn’t mention was that, out of the Packers 6 tight ends, they only accounted for 20 catches last season, collectively. How long have the Packers been searching for a solid tight end? Like i’ve mentioned in the past, sometimes it takes years and years for the Packers to remedy positional needs. Mercedes Lewis being our #1 tight end, speaks volumes. When you look at the receivers and tight ends as a whole, this has to be one of the weakest groups in the NFL.
    .
    https://sports.yahoo.com/2020-nfl-preview-the-packers-odd-offseason-plan-will-be-under-scrutiny-and-not-just-this-year-130053619.html

    1. Ferris July 26, 2020

      They had Cook on the relative cheap but were too stupid to resign him. They’d rather overpay for a relic in Jimmy Graham and screw Jordy over.

      1. PF4L July 29, 2020

        For the money Cook has been a good get for the Raiders and the Saints. If he had stayed with Rodgers i think he would have even better numbers, as they were building rapport.

        Looking back…..i remember some conflict with Cooks agent and Ted/Ball. But replacing him with Bennett, then Graham, has proven to have been colossal mistakes, both by the old GM, and the new one.

    2. Cheese July 26, 2020

      I’m not a big Madden fanatic, my most recent copy is 13 years old and on a PS2, nor do I think Madden ratings are always accurate. With that said, I saw the current ratings online for the Packers WR & TE groups. All I have to say is … ouch.
      .
      First we have Davante who is rated a 94. That is where the good news ends. After Davante, GB doesn’t have any WR’s or TE’s rated in the 90’s or even the 80’s. The next closest pass catcher would be Devin Funchess at 79, and Lewis at 76. That means their top three guys grade out to an A, C+, and a C, with the rest of the roster grading out at C’s, D’s, and F’s. Or, you could put it as the Packers have a #1 WR and a bunch of #3’s, 4’s, and 5’s.
      .
      When comparing this to other teams rosters GB’s lack of quality pass catchers is even more evident. There are teams who have as many as 4 players rated in the 80’s and 90’s, all compared to GB’s 1. I know that not everyone needs to be All Pro to make an impact but that’s also not an excuse to completely ignore a position of need for 6 years. What about Jimmy Graham you say? He topped out at 78. That makes him a C+ player who got paid like he was a valedictorian.
      .
      Obviously, we don’t need a video game to tell us that the Packers WR/TE core is garbage. We all know that. It’s just another creative way to blow off steam and ease the pain of disappointment while poking fun at the Packers terrible front office. Here, have a look for yourself-
      .
      WR
      94 Adams
      79 Funchess
      74 MVS
      71 Lazard
      70 Kumerow
      67 St. Brown
      65 Darrius Shepherd
      .
      TE
      76 Lewis
      68 Sternberger
      67 Josiah Degura
      72 Tonyan
      59 James Looney
      58 Evan Baylis
      .
      LOL!
      .
      PS. Remember Geronimo Allison, the guy who was supposed to be groomed into GB’s next #2 WR? He’s now in Detroit and scored a whopping 73, edging on a C-. How about Trevor Davis who was being talked about last summer like he was developing into GB’s next big thing? He’s now in Chicago and scored a 68. While the Packers continue to daydream over what UDFA is going to be their next diamond in the ruff, the rest of the league is miles ahead of them.

  4. Ferris July 26, 2020

    Bert Favre just dropped all the way off the cliff for me. Maybe he an the Dotard exchanged dick pics.

    1. stiggy July 26, 2020

      Like Brett Favre gives two shits who you are. go back to reddit.

      1. Ferris July 29, 2020

        I don’t give a single shit about you.

    2. PF4L July 27, 2020

      I’m with Ferris…Brent Favre can eat a dick. Just when you think enough time goes by and you might shake his hand one of these years if you met him.

      He takes in a million dollars from a fund for the poor, for doing nothing. (i know he’s paying it back) but why did he have it to begin with?

      He compares Colin Kaepernick (heroic’s) to Pat Tillman.
      What a stupid parallel to draw.

      I can live with the fact he doesn’t give 102 shits who i am.

      Like how he didn’t give a shit how many picks he throw.

      Like how he didn’t give a shit if he was married.

      Like how he’ll show up for a charity event, as long as he gets his appearance fee. (Yes, i do know about it)

      1. stiggy July 28, 2020

        You provide many better reasons for disliking favre than golfing with the president

        Wasn’t kato run off this board for political bullshit? Maybe he was right about whiny liberals such as ferris.

        1. PF4L July 29, 2020

          I thought Kato was driven off by someone for repeatedly talking stupid. As a innocent bystander just watching it unfold, that’s the way i saw it.

    3. MMSUCKS July 28, 2020

      I feel the same way.

  5. PF4L July 27, 2020

    So, a few thoughts….What’s going on? Did the rookies and QB’s report already? It looks like veterans report tomorrow,

    Mr. Rooney..it’s good to see you have the free time to contribute an article here and there. Without you this might be close to a ghost town. You have authored 6 of the last 8 articles..Thank you….I would assume the CEO/COB and the regulars here appreciate it as i do.

    My .02 on betting this early….Don’t do it!!
    Years and years ago i found that it’s better to wait 2-4 weeks and get a feel for where the teams are and get a flow of the season.
    This year especially, considering the lack of camps, i’m guessing full padded practice’s will be reduced, and of course, They will have no pre-season. This season has the potential to be be played somewhat ugly across the NFL for a few weeks, citing the reasons above, and players still getting into football shape.

  6. NobodysBurfect July 27, 2020

    Well the Marlins just cancelled the next two games because 14 players came down with Covid. Might want to find something else to bet on because if they can’t keep it out of baseball, there’s no way there will be an NFL season. Good health to everyone.

    1. PF4L July 29, 2020

      Yea…maybe 16 or 17 now. If that happens to an NFL team…WOW.
      Man…..you want to think positive but you have to wonder if the NFL will make it to week 8.

  7. PF4L July 29, 2020

    Good to see you men stick around through the slow times here, especially Cheese and MMSUCKS and the rest of you animals.

    I cheated on JP yesterday and posted on another Packer site. Feeling guilty….i sent him a free pass to the Packers HOF along with a buy 1 Whopper, get one free coupon and a PF4L golf shirt.. Then i took a shower because i felt ….dirty.
    .
    We should be good now.