As most sports fans are well aware, it’s always best to take betting markets with a pinch of salt. More often than not the preseason favorite for the Super Bowl does not go all the way lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the end of a long campaign. In fact, only on a handful of occasions in the last 20 years has the team deemed the top pick by bookies gone on to win the Super Bowl. On the other hand, teams backed in the betting markets tend to do quite well overall. The Chiefs were among the favorites last season, for example.
But for fans, perspective is always important. If we go all the way back to 2010 and the Packer’s journey towards Super Bowl XLV glory, it’s interesting to see how the odds ebbed and flowed throughout the year. In February 2010, the Packers were priced at around 16/1 (+1600). Those odds started to tumble across the summer months, with the Packers eventually starting the season as 11/1 shots. A 10-6 season will always have its up and downs, but Green Bay had shot up to 22/1 by Week 15. By the time the Packers reached the Conference Final, they were the favorites (8/5). The rest, as we know, is history, and the Packers started off Super Bowl XLV as the odds-on favorite (7/10) before defeating the Steelers at Cowboys Stadium (all odds sourced from sportsoddshistory.com).
But what about this season? Can we get any clues about the Packers’ chances? Let’s dive in for a complete look at what the sportsbooks are saying:
Super Bowl Odds
We used Freebets.com to compare lots of different bookmakers, and the most common price we can find for the Packers at this point is 20/1. That’s coming from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, Coral and Betway. That gives the Packers a ranking of 12th in NFL. The price of 20/1 is actually quite similar to the odds offered last season when the Packers were just one game away from the Super Bowl, so nobody should be dismissing the team’s chances. The highest price we could find was 28/1, coming from Unibet and 888sport. Sky Bet seemed to have the most faith in Matt LeFleur’s men, offering odds of 16/1.
NFC Conference Odds
As for winning the NFC, the most frequent odds seem to be around 10/1 and 11/1. Those prices are coming from the same bookmakers who put the 20/1 chance on a Super Bowl win. 888sport has cited 14/1 for the Packers to win the NFC, almost as a high a price as the 16/1 Sky Bet had for the Super Bowl victory. Those margins bear thinking about it if you to do decide to bet on your team preseason.
To Win the NFC North
A really interesting market here because very few bookmakers split the Packers and Vikings in their assessment. The best odds you can get for either team seems to be the 7/4 offered by Paddy Power. Some bookmakers rate the Bear’s chances relatively highly at 3/1, and none really rule out the Lions (6/1, general). It points to a tight race.
To Qualify for the Playoffs
A simple yes/no market, but one that is clearly important for fans. The good news for Cheeseheads is that there is unanimous agreement among sportsbooks that the Packers are more likely than not to reach the postseason. 888sport offer odds of 7/10 that they do go to the Playoffs, and it’s 11/10 that they finish the season early.
Total Wins
You will find countless articles trying to predict exactly how many wins and losses the Packers will rack up this season, and you can guarantee that all fans would be happy with another 13-3 regular season like last year. Bookmakers will differ on where they put the line for over/under markets. Unibet seems to have taken the sensible approach, putting it at 8/11 for over 8.5 wins and at 11/10 for under 8.5 wins. For Packers fans, the former feels like the bare minimum for the season, whereas the latter would spell disaster.