Post-Draft, Looking on the Bright Side – Part 6
Zach Kruse of Packers Wire wrote on May 5 that he doesn’t expect much impact from the Packers’ rookie draft class this season. Specifically regarding A.J. Dillon, he thinks he’ll be the third-string “rotational” RB behind Aaron Jones and Jaamal Williams. I hope he’s wrong, but it all depends on Coach Matt LaFleur.
Rookie Running Backs
There’s a widespread misconception around the NFL that rookies seldom contribute much to their teams in their rookie seasons. That might have some general validity, but it doesn’t apply to exceptional running backs. Several RBs in recent years have proven to be the exception to the general rule.
In the 2016 draft, Ezekiel Elliott, the Big Ten’s MVP out of Ohio State, was the fourth overall draft pick. As a rookie, he rushed 322 times for 1,631 yards (5.1 Ave.) and 15 TDs, and also caught 32 balls for 363 more yards. That’s six yard short of 2,000 yards of total offense. Zeke led the league in rushing by over 300 yards – that’s some rookie.
In 2017, Leonard Fournette, a consensus All-American out of LSU, was the fourth overall draft pick. Due to an ankle injury and violating team rules, Fournette played in only 13 games as a rookie. Still, he got 268 carries for 1,040 yards (3.9 ave.) and 9 TD’s, as well as 36 catches for another 302 yards.
Christian McCaffrey was the eighth overall pick in 2017. As a rookie, he made his mark as a receiver, catching 88 passes for 651 yards and 5 TDs. As a runner, he got 117 carries for 435 yards (3.8 ave.) and 3 TDs. Though he only started in ten games, his total offensive contribution was 1,086 yards and 7 Tds. The more work he gets. the better he plays. His monster year last season featured total offensive output of 2,392 yards and 19 touchdowns.
Alvin Kamara proved in 2017 that one doesn’t have to be a first round draft pick to excel as a rookie. Kamara, out of Tennessee, was an early Round 3 pick, 67th overall – slightly lower than A.J. Dillon. Like McCaffrey, as a rookie Alvin did most of his damage as a receiver: 81 catches for 826 yards and 5 TDs. As a runner he had 120 carries for 728, for a fine 6.1 average. His total offensive production was 1,556 yards and 13 TDs. Kamara was named the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Dillon’s Potential
I’ve been harshly skeptical of GM Brian Gutekunst’s 2020 draft decisions. But since the GM chose A.J. Dillon with the 62nd overall pick, there’s a way for the club to answer all the critics: start Dillon in Game 1 and let him show us what he’s got. If Dillon is given the chance, and turns in a rookie season like the above four phenoms, I’ll be the first to sing his praises.
It’s a highly plausible scenario. As TP has earlier detailed (here, here, and here), Dillon is a huge and powerful man with a sculpted body, but he’s also possesses good speed and agility. He had a great college career playing for Boston College in the AAC.
Of course I’ve got to consider his athleticism? There’s a product out there labeled SPARQ Ratings – it’s an acronym for Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction and Quickness. It’s designed to measure sport-specific (not just the NFL) and position-specific athleticism.
Guess what? A.J. Dillon Dillon had the highest-rated Adjusted SPARQ Percentile of all 2020 RB draftees (.97). Jonathan Taylor was second (.96), Cam Akers was fifth (.71), D’Andre Swift was eighth (.63), and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was tenth (.60). Dillon and Taylor were well ahead of the rest of the group.
Dillon is not just a very good athlete. Last year Seahawks receiver D.K. Metcalf was the consensus “freakish athlete” of his college class. I’d say that this year that title goes to A.J. Dillon!
Athleticism pretty much defines a star running back’s potential. Dillon is right up there with Elliott, McCaffrey, Fournette and other highly successful NFL running backs. It’s not far-fetched to envision him having a similar pro career to these guys. Oh, by the way, Dillon was only 21 years and 11 months old when drafted – he’s still maturing and developing.
Todd Gurley Comparison
Todd Gurley (6’1″, 224#) was the tenth draft pick in 2015. Befitting his ability, as a rookie he had 229 carries in 13 games, rushed for 1,106 yards (4.8 ave.), and scored 10 TDs. He was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, and in 2017 he upped that to Offensive Player of the Year.
In just his fifth year, however, Gurley’s rushing production fell to 857 yards in 223 carries (3.8 ave.) – and the Rams released him. In April, Gurley signed on with the Falcons, but for only one year and only for $5.5 million.
Gurley has averaged over 250 carries per year in the pros, and his body has not held up well. In particular, following the Super Bowl loss to the Pats in 2018 – in which Todd had but 10 carries for 35 yards – it was disclosed that he has arthritis in his left knee. That condition likely spelled defeat for the Rams in the big game two years ago.
Gurley can be cited as a cautionary tale about overuse of a running back. As I recall, however, Gurley’s primary mistake was continuing to play on a bad leg instead of resting and healing. Others would argue that having a seriously arthritic knee at age 23 is freakishly rare.
Aaron Jones Comparison
At least the Rams got great benefit out of Gurley while they had him – and while he was still under the contract he signed as a rookie.
The Packers, meanwhile, have handed the ball to Aaron Jones exactly 150 times per season in his first three years; in his initial two years (mostly under McCarthy) he averaged only 107 carries, a statistic only partially explainable by injuries. And yet we know Aaron was ready from the start, as he had two games of 125 or more rushing yards in the first four games he played in as a pro.
Coach Matt LaFleur is said to be closely modeling the Packers after the 49ers. In 2019, the Niners ran the ball 498 times, or just over 31 times per game. That’s enough run plays for Jones and Dillon to each average over 15 carries per game – keeping them both fresh for the whole season – playoffs included. I would prefer that they both line up in the same backfield on most plays, but they could also platoon.
It seems that professional success of star collegiate running backs is one of the easier calls to make at draft time. Since 2014, the only first round RB picks other than Elliott, Fournette, McCaffrey and Gurley were: Josh Jacobs (#24 in 2019), Saquon Barkley (#2 in 2018); Rashard Penny (#27 in 2018); Sony Michel (#31 in 2018); and Melvin Gordon (#15 in 2015).
Jacobs, despite fracturing his shoulder in Week 7, played in 13 games last season for the Raiders. He had 242 carries for 1,150 yards (4.7 ave.) and 7 TDs. He was named to the PFWA All-Rookie team.
Barkley, with an awesome total yardage of 2,028, was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2018.
Rashaad Penny, a consensus All-American in college in 2018, has been limited to 150 carries in his first two years with the Seahawks, though he has averaged 5.3 yards per carry while doing so.
Sony MIchel, though he started only eight games as a rookie, still managed to get 209 carries for 931 yards (4.5 ave.) and 6 TDs.
Heisman trophy runner-up Gordon just re-signed with the Chargers for two years for $16 million. In his rookie year in 2015, he ran 182 times for 641 yards (3.5 ave.). From 2016 through 2018, his total yardage varied from 1,375 to 1,581 yards.
Conclusions
The evidence is in: most highly-drafted NFL running backs prove themselves to be competitive and successful almost immediately. This is especially so for large and well-built RBs, and doubly so for highly-athletic ones.
The college ranks sent a handful of superlative RBs to the pro draft in April. I view A.J. Dillon as a first-roud draft choice in almost any other year.
If Matt LaFleur gives Dillon the carries I feel he merits, I believe the Packers will have two 1,000 yard rushers this season. I’ll be watching you, coach.
Though Dillon was chosen late in the second round, he’s one of the biggest RBs to enter the pro ranks. . .in league history! He’s 7 pounds heavier than Fournette, 14 more than Barkley, 16 more than Eddie Lacy, 22 more than Elliott, 25 more than Gurley, 27 more than Jacobs and Penny, 32 more than Gordon and Marshawn Lynch, 33 more than Kamara and Michel, and 45 more than McCaffrey. Amazingly, he’s is almost devoid of body fat, which was measured at 5 percent.
Other than for a handful of behemoths who had little success in, or pre-dated, the NFL (Craig Heyward, 280; LaRon McClain, 260; AFL/CFL player Cookie Gilchrist, 251), I can come up with only two larger RBs.
Leon Hart, 6’5″ and 257 pounds, was the Heisman Trophy winner in 1949, and the top draft pick in 1950. He had a fine career with the Lions from 1950 through 1957, but mostly as a receiver, not a running back.
More recently, Jerome Bettis, 5’11” and 255 pounds, the tenth overall pick in 1993, was a six-time Pro Bowler, mostly with the Steelers. Whereas the Bus was flabby, Dillon has a washboard belly.
Dillon is huge, strong as a bear, ultra-athletic, faster than average, rugged, smart, humble, and young – and he had three great years at Boston College. What’s not to like? I’m praying to see him lining up next to Aaron Jones at U.S. Bank Stadium on September 13. This is my bright-side formula for vanquishing the Vikings.