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Post Mortem: Examining Gutekunst’s Big Board

Shortly after GM Brian Gutekunst used his top pick to select Utah State QB Jordan Love, he gave this explanation:

“We go through the same process every year. . .we build our board and try to stay true to the board and take the best player available. The way the board fell this year, he was the best player left and we’re excited to get him.”

I view the GM as a pretty transparent and truthful guy. Let’s take him mostly at his word, and see where it leads us.

I assume that the “board” the GM is talking about consists chiefly of two player lists: (1) the players in order of how the team ranks them as the best draftees, regardless of position; and (2) the best draftees at each of the various positions.

I’m going to chiefly use Pro Football Focus to see how it rated the Packers’ top picks. PFF is among the most respected analysts of college players entering the pro draft, and I understand that several pro teams employ PFF to assist them in determining who the best draft prospects are.

QB Jordan Love

The Packers traded up, to pick #26, to get the QB out of Utah State – he was the fourth QB chosen. PFF had Love rated as the 6th best QB in the class. However, on its overall best draftees board, it ranked Love only #76 – which equates to the twelfth pick of Round 3.

RB A.J. Dillon

Dillon went to Green Bay in late Round 2, at pick #62. I’ve checked and re-checked, but PFF did not list Dillon among their top 250 draft prospects! nfl.com had him going at #112; CBS Sports at #128; and Sports Illustrated at #174. Walter Football projected him going in Rounds 3-5, and USA Today had him going in Rounds 5-7.

TE Josiah Deguara

The Packers picked Josiah Deguara in Round 3, at #94. However, he was only listed as #191 on PFF’s big board – which equates to the twelfth pick of Round 6.

The pattern repeats itself with respect to the Packers later round selections. Green Bay chose Kamal Martin in Round 5, with overall pick #175; PFF had him going at #232. Gutey’s next pick, Joe Runyan, was taken at #192; PFF had him rated as #214.

The Packers picked Jake Hanson at #108, Simon Stepaniak at #209, Vernon Scott at #236, and Jonathan Garvin at #242; none of the four, however, was on PFF’s list of top 250 prospective draftees.

From top to bottom, and without exception, the disparities between Gutekunst’s board and almost everyone else’s is gigantic. Therein lies the problem.

The Packers almost without exception rated their draftees higher – much higher – than the many others who published mock drafts. This also means that Green Bay rated a great many players lower than did the other experts – including many of the players that the other 31 teams actually chose.

When I have more time, I’d like to go through the same analysis with the Packers’ 2018 and 2019 draft picks – will the same pattern of going against convention show up?

 

Packers GM Brian Gutekunst at NFL Combine

Feb 25, 2020; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst speaks during the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Who Green Bay Passed Up

Had the Packers not gone after a quarterback, and had they kept their 30th pick, who was available? At WR, there was Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman, who went at 33 and 34. If the Packers were insistent on adding a running back, all of the best were available at #30: LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire (32), Georgia’s D’Andre Swift (35), and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor (41).

When they chose RB A.J. Dillon at #62, they passed up Houston OT Josh Jones (ranked by PFF at #14, drafted at 72) and Wisconsin OLB Zach Baun (74). nfl.com had Dillon going in Rounds 3-4, and Walter Football had him in Rounds 3-5.

Their third-round pick, TE Josiah Dugerara, came at #94; PFF rated him at 191. More highly-regarded tight ends who were still available included Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet (98) and Adam Trautman (105). Again and again, Gutenkunst’s board skips over the scouting community’s consensus picks in favor of dark horses.

So, had Green Bay roughly adhered to the conventional scouting wisdom – and even if they were crazily insistent on getting a QB, they could have landed Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts (rated #65 by PFF, chosen 53 by the Eagles). And this could have been done without trading away their fourth-round pick, so they could have snared another player at #136.

The stats for Hurts last season: 237 completions out of 340 passes, a 69.7 completion rate, for 3,851 yards, 32 TDs, 8 interceptions. Oh, and he can run: 233 attempts, 1,298 yards, 6.5 average, 20 TDs. Jordan Love’s line: 293 of 473, 61.9%, 3,402 yards, 20 TDs, 17 interceptions; he also rushed 81 times for 171 yards, a 2.2 average – and no TDs.

Gutekunst himself brags about using the “best player available” approach – but he does not. I exposed the BPA idiocy back in early 2017 – see “Clearing Up the ‘Best Player Available’ Nonsense”. Even at that time, GM Ted Thompson claimed he used the BPA approach, though he really didn’t. Gutekunst now makes the same claim, but he doesn’t either: there’s no way Green Bay’s picks last week were the best college players still available. NO WAY! But if Brian thinks they were, then for sure it’s time for a new GM!

Conclusions

Let’s set aside for now the whole question of what the Packers biggest needs were, and whether they were addressed. It’s inescapable that the Packers are rating players markedly differently than everyone else: other teams, other draft experts, other media analysts, and even their own fans.

What is it that the club’s scouts and other front office personnel are viewing in a different light than most others? Is the club placing too much, or too little, emphasis, on: athleticism, speed, size, fitness, age, intelligence, years of college ball, the quality of their college opponents, big school vs. small school, football powerhouses vs. unsuccessful football programs, injury history, rawness/polish, work ethic, character, criminal record, whether a player (in Gutey’s words) “fits with our culture,” playmaking ability, versatility, clutchness, whether one is a team player, aggressiveness/roughness, demeanor/presentation, decision-making ability, etc.

Gutekunst and Co. have to be factoring some or many of the above traits differently than most others. The Packers are so out of the mainstream with its 2020 picks that it’s almost certainly a catastrophic series of blunders. Only the most optimistic and patient fans will insist on waiting several years to verify that’s the case. It took the jury of fans but minutes to render its verdict this season.

The damage is done. The best that can happen is to fix it going forward. That might entail massive changes in the way the team’s board is compiled, or making drastic changes in the personnel who have been compiling these boards.

Mark Murphy needs to privately launch a full examination of Gutekunst’s board, and take appropriate steps to prevent a reoccurrence. I know, I know. . .but it had to be said anyway.

Here’s another thought: maybe Gutekunst has commandeered the entire process, whereby he’s the sole person dictating who lines up where on the board, and the team’s scouting personnel, who number close to 20, have been reduced to being yes-men.

I can’t help but wonder: would a performance appraisal of the third-year GM reveal that, behind that meek and mild exterior, Brian Gutekunst is just a wayward gambler, who relishes taking wild risks rather than playing the conventional odds?

Tags:
Rob Born

I’m with Matt: “You gotta make those chunk plays!”

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56 Comments

  1. PF4L April 27, 2020

    I heard an interview on sports radio with a guy really close to Pittman, although i didn’t catch in what capacity, but…..
    *
    He talked in high detail about Pittman,regarding his route running,and various details about his game, strengths, weaknesses, etc.
    He was so articulative and passionate about Pittman’s game, I kind of got sucked in, partly because i don’t follow college ball much except when there is top ranked match-ups, or the Badgers are playing. But i heard other pundits also lauding his potential, so i kind of quietly was hoping the Packers picked Pittman

    Reply
    1. Ferris April 27, 2020

      Must have been his Dad, the one person who is not objective. Raise your hand if you saw a BC game the past 3 years….if you did raise your other hand if this guy stood out. I saw the National Championship and Queen stood out. Those are the players you draft. This NFL GM thing is not that hard.

      Reply
      1. PF4L April 27, 2020

        Yea, you might be right. things don’t always make sense. If were going by production, i know a QB that threw 17 picks, and had 13 fumbles that got picked in the first round, by a team who didn’t really need him.
        *
        We live in a crazy world Ferris.

        Reply
  2. Robster April 27, 2020

    Correction: Guard/center Jake Hanson was chosen at #208.

    Reply
  3. Big B April 27, 2020

    Here I was worried about getting terribly ill this weekend with COVID-19, only to have the Packers draft sicken me. I should have been wearing a mask in front of the TV- to catch the vomit. I hope I am wrong, along with most of the NFL analysts, but I gotta bad feeling about this.

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 27, 2020

      Lol….hear that, No…you’re not wrong, nor are the analyst.
      *
      But here’s the thing Big, it isn’t even a matter (about) hoping your wrong, or hoping the Packers win the SB this season.
      *
      It’s about a franchise giving up for now, and start building for a new offense, a new QB. The Packers world will soon be chocked full of a running game, and short play action passes (a mirror of the 49ers). This draft had nothing to do with improvement for the 2020 season, it has to do beyond that. It’s about time others admitted that, like the Packers.

      Reply
  4. stiggy April 27, 2020

    Best Part of Robs Writeup – it’s time for a new GM!

    Yes I realize i just pulled that fake news style out of context…but Gute is a hack. Plain and simple. He is undeserving of his job…and Im thankful the only contribution i give to this franchise is my nielsen rating.

    Reply
  5. PF4L April 27, 2020

    “I view the GM as a pretty transparent and truthful guy.”
    *
    If someone tells me we are in a win now mode, that the SB is our yearly goal, and his actions do nothing to corroborate that, and does just the opposite, i would gladly….call that man a liar to his face.
    **********************
    Lets go here…Lets go to reality….
    The Packers got rolled twice last year by the 49ers, i think we can all agree on that.
    So now that free agency and the draft is over.
    Did the Packers…..
    A) Catch up to the 49ers?
    B) Stay the same?
    C) Lose ground?

    Reply
    1. stiggy April 27, 2020

      Lost ground. The niners lost Buckner but turned that in to the 13th pick and guess what they did with it? They drafted a player to fill that hole.

      The niners were caught off guard by Joe staley telling them he is going to retire so what so they do? Lock up perennial all pro tackle trent Williams with their 3rd round pick.

      Seems like they got an all pro at an area of weakness + 13th pick for an all pro and a 3rd round pick.

      Compare that third round pick to josiah deguara. They say he’s supposed to emulate the niners full back which would be a great use of a 3rd round pick…..but I’d rather have Trent Williams replacing bulaga and trot out the best line in the NFL.

      They are going to kill us.

      Reply
      1. PF4L April 27, 2020

        You are correct Sir!!. That player was Kinlaw, plus they got Aiyuk
        *
        But don’t forget. The Packers have 3 bench players that can come in and wreak havoc on any team that gets in our way :)

        Reply
      2. Adam April 27, 2020

        Adding insult to injury, the Niners traded Kyle Juszczyk on day 3…. For a 5th round pick.
        ***
        We literally could have had the exact fullback they’re trying to emulate, two rounds later than the TIGHT END they took for the same purpose.
        ***
        Josh Jones would have sounded real nice in that third round instead.

        Reply
    2. Howard April 27, 2020

      Free agency is over? When did that happen? There are a lot of free agents still unsigned and there will be more as the off season continues including final cut downs. I thought today was the day that teams could sign free agents without them counting against next years compensation picks? Did the NFL change something this year because of the COVID deal?

      Reply
      1. PF4L April 27, 2020

        Well…if the NFL didn’t raise the salary cap because of the COVID deal, how much money do the Packers have left?

        Reply
  6. Wael Rashidi April 27, 2020

    Cole Kmet went 43rd not 98 Hansen went 208…..did this guy do any research or just used his own number to post a blog

    Reply
  7. Adam April 27, 2020

    The “win-now” rhetoric from Gute is, and has been, a joke. The only reason he says it aloud is because this team far exceeded expectations last year and he knows the fan base would absolutely resent the organization for openly rebuilding during Aaron’s final years. There’s no doubt this draft was a rebuild. Partly with an eye to the future (which was questionable, at best, with his selections) and partly to reshape the offense to MLF’s scheme. That hybrid mashup we saw last season of MLF’s offensive recipe with McCarthy seasoning was just a transition phase to fully reshape playbook in year two – personnel and all.
    ***
    Gute was never going to draft a WR regardless of the glaring deficiencies we all saw because MLF’s scheme doesn’t ask for a spread offense. I saw a lot pf other pundits make the same connection by the end of day three, but to think that you intentionally avoid a day one/two pick on a historically deep class like this is just absolute incompetence. Any WR taken off the board in the first two rounds already walks into the building with a higher ceiling than anyone behind currently behind Davante. FFS we tried using Geronimo Allison as a slot receiver all of last year. KJ Hill was available into the seventh round. Sheer incompetence.
    ***
    I have a feeling MLF did not sense buy-in from Aaron last year. They very much drafted Love to groom into his successor, and they won’t be waiting to exercise his fifth-year option before doing so. You don’t trade up in the first round to take a flyer on a guy you don’t already have big plans for. If Love replaces Aaron and flops, Gute and MLF are married to that failure. If they don’t promote Love in a couple years end up trading or releasing him, Gute and MLF are still married to that failure. So why would there be any reason to think they don’t give him that shot? Which makes Aaron’s contract extension look real foolish on the organizations part.
    ***
    Maybe Love pans out, I sure as fuck hope so because it’s clear our eggs are in his basket and the timer is officially running, but I have a feeling we’re going to look back on this draft with historic sulk over the other options and talent we passed on.

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 27, 2020

      The strange thing about Love is, if Rodgers stays healthy, Gute may not be here to watch Love play.
      *
      But then again, Rodgers may do what he’s always done, give everyone job security.

      Reply
  8. BigGayClay April 27, 2020

    I think Gutey is banking on MVS, St. Brown, and Lazard to take that jump. Throw in Funchess and we might not be as bad off as you think. However I am worried about us not taking a highly touted MLB or DE. We are going to get ran out of the building when we play the 49ers.

    Reply
    1. MJ April 28, 2020

      You raised a good point, but Gute had last year as a second chance for his guys, yet, no clear progress in sight. Even if one of the guys makes a jump (big if), how much higher ceiling did the 2020 WR draftees have? We could have had a credible threat of a passing game, so teams would not stack the box against LaFleur’s run-first offense.

      ****

      Good second point too…
      I cringe when I envision our defense face the run against the 49ers. Even worse. Teams have seen we are a joke at stopping the run. If they have any imagination, they should run, run, run on us until we prove we can force a 3 and out.

      Reply
  9. Skinny April 27, 2020

    Its like the national media for 20 plus years asking Jennifer Aniston when shes gonna have a baby. At some point over the years Aniston became so sick of being asked about it that she just decided shes not having kids and therefore never giving the satisfaction to the media. Its the same concept with the Packers and drafting WR or skill position players high in the draft. Picking a WR or any skill position player is too fucking obvious for the Packers and it would give us the Packer fans the satisfaction which they want nothing do with! They will never admit they need a WR, never! The Packers say fuck our fans! We’re rolling with that undrafted guy from the Canadian league just to piss off everybody. Thats the mindset though. Pure stubbornness and ego!

    Reply
  10. Packers Bob April 27, 2020

    OK, let’s me break this shit down for you chumps cause y’all really have a hard time understanding it (and in the popular P4F(ail)L format with stupid asterisks for your entertainment.
    ***
    Stop repeating what you hear Bleacher Report and self-proclaimed experts on Youtube say. Ignore their stupid draft grades. Most of them said Christian McCaffrey was a horrible pick and Deshaun Watson was overrated. Hell, they said picking Rodgers was stupid. Nuff said.
    ***
    The Aaron Rogers, Mike McCarthy-style West-Coast offense is OVER.
    ***
    This is now a run-first pound the rock offense. Actually look at who they drafted for gawd’s sake. A bruiser RB, a blocking TE, multiple offensive lineman.
    ***
    Whether you like it or not Love is the future.
    ***
    If you don’t like what they did tough shit. Nobody cares, especially the Packers front office. Carry the G or piss off.
    ***
    Hasn’t whining like a bitch for the better part of a decade gotten exhausting? You people are so damn easy to troll….
    ***
    Y’all screamed for MM and TT to be fired. This is the result. What’s that saying, careful what you wish for? Maybe take a minute to reflect (lol, you won’t).
    ***
    MOST IMPORTANTLY, it’s time to decide if you’re a Packers fan or an Aaron Rodgers fan. The later is free to following him out the door when he departs. You won’t be missed. KTHX BYE!!
    ***
    Finally, here’s my prediction for Total TMZ Packers:
    2021: FIRE EVERYBODY
    2022: FIRE EVERYBODY
    2023: FIRE EVERYBODY
    2024: FIRE EVERYBODY
    2025: FIRE EVERYBODY
    2026: FIRE EVERYBODY
    2027: FIRE EVERYBODY
    .. you get the point.

    Alright, I’m out. You’ll never hear from me again. It’s been fun. Enjoy your little circle-jerk of misery.

    Packer Bob AKA Mike Ditka’s Mom, Dog, Fish, Cat, etc

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 28, 2020

      Fair enough, take care Nancy.

      Reply
    2. rj April 28, 2020

      Love is not going to pan out ,,did you READ the article , watch any videos of him ,, he played in division 96 triple D and was average ,,,, “easy to troll” the only thing you nailed, you are a troll

      Reply
    3. Kato April 29, 2020

      To your greater point, post draft grades a worthless. I remember everyone loving the Bengals pick of John Ross a couple years ago at 13. Yet here we are…..

      Reply
  11. Mike April 27, 2020

    Obviously the Packers front office has been doing something right for the past two plus decades as their record shows. Would you rather they use the approach of teams such as the Browns who seem to always draft towards the top of the order and still consistently finish with a losing record? I’m quite certain BG and his team are more knowledgeable than the fans and so called “draft experts”. How can anyone grade a draft class when the picks haven’t even reported to their respective teams yet? You can’t get a good read on a player for at least 3 – 4 years. Show some faith and PATIENCE!

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 29, 2020

      Obviously the Packers front office has been doing a lot of things wrong for the past twelve years or they’d have more than one SB appearence. Even the casual fan can see that, Not only are they 1-4 in NFCCG, each loss had highly embarrassing elements.
      *
      Since we can’t get a good read on players until the 3rd or 4th year. This next season will maybe tell us if Patrick Mahomes is any good.

      Reply
  12. Mitch Anthony April 27, 2020

    Gutekunst himself brags about using the “best player available” approach – but he does not.

    That is very true and when that happens my advice is: get up slowly, stretch a little, then go walk off a bullshit cramp. It works.

    There are some very poor evaluators populating this franchise and in typical fashion for this team, they will be gainfully employed here for a long time. Some might even be named Stephen and Alberto. We might as well accept it because Murph and the BOD seem to have. Examples have been present for the last few years and quite a few fans of the team were actually expecting a bit of a bed shitting. I thought, no way, not this time. I was optimistic that with the players that were available they would do well this time around. Oh well.

    Again, I really hope JLo does well. I hope he learns, adapts and thrives and the team and fan base treat him well. He didn’t ask for this. I just think this was at least one year too soon for this type of move. But the JLo move aside, the guys they picked were reaches one and all. In looking at mocks and doing my own scratching in a notebook I momentarily looked at AJ Dillon and penciled him in for a while. There are some attributes to like but I can guarantee it wasn’t the second pick. They passed on a chance at the 2nd highest rated TE prospect (Kmet) to get the tenth rated one (Draftek ranking). Still, good luck to those guys and the other picks. Go out there and overachieve. Please.

    Reply
  13. Zwoeger April 27, 2020

    I still think the Gutter panicked after missing on Aiyuk and never got his senses back after.

    Reply
  14. Alberto April 27, 2020

    Lane Taylor is still here, so we will likely have enough O linemen. The RB & TE we drafted, were special players, inked onto a list of bruisers. The supply of receivers we stocked up on 3 years ago, will be weeded out. We likely aren’t done making trades, to get adequate cap space to sign cull players from other teams. Rodgers is either going to conform to the system, or play for the Bears, in the not too distant future. With the salary cap savings there, they will more than likely just need a quarterback that can call the plays, and hand off the ball to the correct back or H, TE. Most of the passing game will become defunct. It may not even be necessary to have a quarterback on the field, as the new center may be employed to both make the read, call the play, and even snap the ball laterally. The best part of that being, there’s no one just standing around like Rodgers, or any other QB for that matter, and all players are participants in blocking or running to move the ball forward. Rodgers gets paid too much to do this, and he really can’t run anywhere but backwards, so it will take a tougher QB.
    This new type of offense would have been excellent with a tough QB, say Brett Favre.
    Look for that new Center to start early this season. 🤔 Duh, I dunno, makes me sad !

    Reply
  15. Howard April 27, 2020

    About 11 million after the draft pool. The draft pool is about 8 million. That is without cutting any players or restructure of any contracts. So is free agency over?
    I hope you and Stiggy aren’t trying to say Kinlaw is an upgrade over Buckner? Buckner to Kinlaw is lost ground for the 49ers. Aiyuk is not an upgrade over Sanders, yet. Lost ground again. After those two picks I think the 49ers only had 3 more picks starting in the fifth round. Trent Williams has missed 29 games in the last four years, including the last 19 regular season games. The tumor was the majority of the issue, but don’t forget Williams had Surgery for a Patellar tendon rupture at the end of 2018, and hasn’t played a down since. I think the Packers stay the same with the 49ers, at this time, and that isn’t good enough.

    Reply
    1. Howard April 27, 2020

      The above was for PF4L and Stiggy further above.

      Reply
      1. PF4L April 27, 2020

        For right now Kinlaw is lost ground, but the guys an animal. Sanders was very serviceable, but lets not pretend Aiyuk can’t outperform Sanders numbers, with Sanders age that should be a definite upgrade.
        *
        Yes, the 49ers lost Buckner and Staley, but didn’t we lose Bulaga and Martinez? Two very productive players. Gotta tell both sides my friend.
        *
        Yes, Williams has missed 29 games in 4 years, but didn’t Kirksey miss 23 games the last 2 seasons? Both sides
        *
        Most pundits viewed the 49ers draft as one of the best, while the pundits put the Packers right down at the bottom.
        *
        Lets stop pretending ok…A lot of teams got better. I don’t think any team is losing sleep over the moves that Green Bay has made, do you?
        *
        BTW..if history tells us anything, the Packers won’t be touching much of that 11 million going into the season, unless they want to resign T Willy at 2, or 3 million

        Reply
        1. PF4L April 27, 2020

          The Packers doled out 182 million in free agent contracts last year. The Smith Bros better keep it up, that’s some serious coin.
          *
          This year they spent 26.5 million.
          *
          They blew the load last year, plus they have 2 or 3 players up for renewed lottery tickets next year. The cap is going to get pretty dicey soon. I’m seriously starting to wonder if they view Rodgers as only playing one more season for them

          Reply
    2. Stiggy April 28, 2020

      Free agency is over for the packers…for the next few years. Thanks to their spending spree last year..

      ..
      If they want to keep Clark and bak that is.
      ..

      Things might look a little better if they hadn’t doled out a 150 million+ contract less than a calendar year before seleting love…but I digress.

      ….
      I understand its very hard to upgrade buckner but picking up trent williams and the #13 pick for buckner and a 3rd + Breida is quality work.

      ..

      The niners still have 3 very good defensive linemen and substantially improved their offensive line in the process.

      ..

      Yes sanders left…but he was a rental anyway.

      ..

      The niners biggest concern imo should be their secondary. Sherman is no spring chicken.

      ..

      The packers are where they were in Mike Sherman land….back against the cap…and unable to weather the loss of departing players for their second contracts.

      ..
      Gutes atrocious 2018 draft is killing them right now. At least the 19 draft was a little better.

      But hey …josiah deguara is gonna be rookie of the year so it’s all good.

      Reply
  16. PF4L April 28, 2020

    Since i’m here and wound up again.
    *
    We all know Gute said that Love “fell to them” as why they took him. We all know i have called bullshit on that. i have 3 strong (very strong) reasons why i feel that way.
    *
    First, Ian Rapoport who is highly respected. Making no mistake, said…the Packers were “adamant” at taking Love in the draft. so much so that they had a trade worked out with Seattle (which they ended up not needing) because they traded up with the Colts. Listen for yourself from Rapoport. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-network-total-access/0ap3000001111780/Rapoport-Packers-were-adamant-about-drafting-a-QB.
    *
    Second…doing a little research, i found out that Gute grabbed one of his top scouts, got on a plane last Oct, to go watch Love play against LSU. Not long after, Gute called one of Love’s old coaches, and had a long discussion with him, about Love.
    *
    Thirdly….Rodgers fell to to Ted Thompson, no one will dispute that. Jordan Love did NOT fall to Gutenkunst, like Gute explains.
    How the fuck….does a guy fall to you, when you made a trade, to go up and get him??
    *
    Jordan Love was the target before the draft started. Which is fine…but don’t stand up there like a moron and say….”Ah, well, umm, Love fell to us, and ummm, so we umm took him.
    *
    It’s things like this, and past ill advised moves, that makes you wonder if Gute is in over his head.

    Reply
  17. bolebg April 28, 2020

    Was Rashon Gary reach as well last year? DO you have numbers of other analysts from last year?

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 29, 2020

      He wasn’t a need in any fashion. Maybe Gute thought he was the BPA. Or maybe they miss the Ted days of drafting and converting,

      Reply
  18. Wael April 28, 2020

    Where did this guy get his research TE from Notre Dame was already drafted at 43….and Hansen was 208….Gutekunst is building this to beat 49ers and a WR was not going to beat miners u need to run and manhandle their line.

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 29, 2020

      So the Packers are ready to beat the 49ers now?
      *
      Or….(wait for it)……in the future?

      Reply
  19. Skinny April 28, 2020

    Whoa! Anybody read Andrew Brandts article on SI? Goes over the story again on Rodgers falling to them in 05. Says some new things at least i had not heard on what happened in the draft room when it was clear Ted was going to pick Rodgers. Coaches storming out of the room. Hearing the boos all the way up in their draft room from the party below at Lambeau that night. Brett being constantly pissed knowing Rodgers around that season. Good stuff.

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 29, 2020

      Thanks for the heads up Skinny, i gave that a read. Sherman and part of his staff storming out is entertaining. but i doubt that Ted cared as Sherman’s fate was sealed by then anyway.
      .
      I agree with Brandt on two points….this won’t end well. (Unless Rodgers retires on his own in a year or two.) When i say it won’t end well, the Packers also know that, and discussed that issue already pre-draft, i’m positive of it.
      .
      Also, as i posted, 1st round QB picks don’t sit for 3 years. Rodgers was an anomaly.

      Reply
  20. Mick April 28, 2020

    R-E-L-A-X….we’re gonna be fine….we went 13-3 last season, right? Our success next year is singularly tied to the 2020 draft apparently. While a boom draft will always help a team, does a bust draft kill a franchise?

    How many players from the Packers 2015 Draft contributed to the team’s success last season? If you said ZERO, you are correct. Not one single player from that draft is even on the roster!! Experts gave the Packers a B- to C+ for that year’s draft. In that same 2015 draft, the Bears selected WR Kevin White, all the experts gave the Bears grades of A or B+ for their draft selections that year….so how’s Kevin White working out for the Bears these days?

    More recently, these so-called “experts” gave the NE Patriots stellar grades immediately after the 2019 draft…..A+ to A grades for every single selection, how exciting!!! Fast forward to the end of the 2019 season, those same picks graded out at D+ to C- by these same experts…..as for me, I won’t be jumping to any conclusions so early in the process, especially when there’s nothing, other than talking head opinion, to support the argument that this draft was a total bust. Only time will tell.

    The 2020 draftees haven’t even seen the Green Bay airport terminal and this conspiracy theorist blogger is calling for the Packers organization to fire the GM? Please….sit down and let this play out before you write another “doomsday” article. If it all goes to hell this season, as you seem to think, then you can say “I told you so”, but until that happens, let’s sit back and watch this process unfold…..and, as a Packer fan, hope these guys are even better than where we selected them….and I hope I’m right.

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 28, 2020

      Well….you can hope in one hand and sh…….

      Reply
      1. Mick April 28, 2020

        Ha! You seem to be the one slinging (and spewing) the s?!t, my man. Wait and see before you start calling to fire the GM..talk about overreaching…..

        Reply
        1. PF4L April 28, 2020

          Name something i said that wasn’t factual, and show me where i called them to fire the GM.
          *
          in other words, don’t sling shit, when you don’t know shit….my man

          Reply
    2. Kato April 29, 2020

      Good post Mick

      Reply
      1. PF4L April 29, 2020

        Good post Mick….Kiss me you fool.

        Reply
  21. Deepsky April 28, 2020

    This reminded me of past Packer drafts in the 80s. A bunch of no name guys taken too high in the draft. Starr and Gregg were great at doing that. Gutekunst’s 2018 draft is probably as bad as any Starr or Gregg draft. Unless a miracle occurs, Gutekunst should be fired within a couple years, maybe sooner if Rodgers demands a trade or tanks it, maybe even both, which really who could blame him.

    Reply
    1. PF4L April 29, 2020

      I would blame him if he tanked it and i would call him out on it. That’s unacceptable. But then again, i don’t believe he has that in him.
      *
      He has every right to request a trade if you believe two things…..
      1) If you believe that the Jordan Love pick was a target pick pre-draft. Which i do.
      2) If you believe that picking Love, giving up a 4th, and not picking up a legit receiver (for over two years now) is building for the future. Meaning, it’s being done at the expense of helping the current team now. Which i do.

      Note: I believe in getting a QB how they did it, but in a year or two. not at the expense of adding talent to the current team when it’s already been neglected. When they do that, it’s hard not to make the case that they are packing it in and stocking for the future.
      *
      Although you can debate how they got there, the team was 13-3 and 1 game from the Super Bowl. If this team was 4-12 last season, Gute wouldn’t be getting the heat he is now.

      Reply
  22. Kato April 29, 2020

    https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/04/24/2017-nfl-draft-tight-end-rankings

    https://walterfootball.com/draft2017TE.php

    Anyone see George Kittle near the top of the rankings? I see a bunch of guys ahead of him. If we are going to leave the Packers front office out to dry about how scouts ranked the guys they picked, let’s talk about the literal thousands of times they have been wrong. Point is the draft is a crapshoot. How about we let this draft class hit the field before we make proclamations that it was a “D” draft. Grading a draft immediately afterwards is for losers that still live in their parents basement.

    Reply
    1. Howard April 29, 2020

      If people want to be honest they need to go back to the 49ers 2017 and 2018 draft classes. I pick those drafts because they were the first and second year drafts for Shanahan/Lynch and the 49ers were in the process of changing a losing franchise into a winning franchise. Most of the picks in those drafts are not on the team or are way down the depth chart. Out of 19 picks in those two drafts I would rate Kittle Round 5-146, Glinchey 1-9, Warner 3-70 as big time contributors to the team. How did Solomon Thomas 1-3 turn out? Backup. How about Rueben Foster 1-31. Is Foster even playing? I think Witherspoon 3-66 is going from some time starter to role or backup player. Does Dante Pettis 2-44 even see the field?
      It looks to me as though the 49ers who had every ability to win the SB gets about 1.5 to 2 starter type or big contributors in each draft. The rest are gone or are ST/backup players.

      Reply
    2. PF4L April 29, 2020

      Fair enough Kato……then lets grade the draft on immediate need. What say you?
      .
      Look back on scouting reports of active players, non active players. The scouts have a pretty impressive record of generally getting it right.

      Reply
      1. PF4L April 29, 2020

        Kato…did anyone see Tom Brady near the top of the draft board?
        .
        Yes Kato, you can cherry pick and find that rare breakthrough player that was drafted late and had success.

        Reply
        1. PF4L April 29, 2020

          Just for clarification Kato. Where did you compile your fact that the scouts get it wrong thousands of times? Did you read it somewhere? Did you do a study? Have you read thousands of scouting reports? I don’t think they got there jobs based on a good recommendation from the manager at Burger King.
          .
          I look at scouting reports…a lot. Not just draftee’s, but active players, and even sometimes retired players. Scouts get it wrong sometimes, but it’s fairly rare.
          .
          I’m not doubting you, i’m just curious where you acquired that data.

          Reply
          1. Kato April 29, 2020

            I don’t have a specific statistic to cite. But I can literally rattle off several players scouts were wrong about. You brought up Brady. Tony Mandarich, Aaron Curry, Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Richard Sherman, Marques Colston, Nick Collins, Antonio Gates, David Bahktiari, James Harrison, Tony Romo, John Randle, Terrell Davis, Wes Welker, Jason Peters, Brian Waters, Priest Holmes, Matt Birk, Clyde Simmons, Kyle Williams, Joe Horn, Robert Mathis, Harold Carmichael, Rodney Harrison, Trent Richardson, Charles Rogers, Matt Leinart, Vernon Gholston, Tim Couch, Courtney Brown. Look, I can go on and on and waste more of my time (and yours by extension), but this is more than a handful of players scouts were wrong about. Literally, go back and look at any “redraft” that you will see by NFL analysts and they are typically wildly different.
            *******
            All of their picks could be total busts, I don’t know. I will wait for them to hit the field and see how they are used. It seems like it wasn’t necessarily best player available, but more who fit what the Packers want to do on offense best. This draft may very well have taken life support off of Aaron Rodgers chance of winning another Superbowl. Again, we literally don’t know that. We will see how it plays out, you may very well be right. Part of the fun is not knowing

            Reply
  23. Pack967 May 2, 2020

    Great synapsis Rob….don’t always agree with your positions..but spot on here…the only thing that makes sense to me….and here only for the Love pick…is that the brain trust does’n not believe there will be a 2020 season…no college or pro, had Love locked in and did not see another opportunity to draft a quarterback to their liking until 2022

    Reply
  24. Defense Rules May 21, 2020

    Well written, and unfortunately the new reality in GB. One items I disagree with…Mark Murphy is actually entirely to blame. This is all on him. It starts at the top, and he is the one who hired this GM, and orchestrated these changes. Tracing Gates career in GB is revealing. TT drafts declined as he promoted him. A damn shame!

    Reply

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