This writer views Green Bay’s 2020 draft conduct as one of the most momentous events in the team’s history. The repercussions will affect the team’s prospects for years to come. There are myriad topics and issues here that can keep TP gainfully occupied right up to the opening of training camp. At the risk of beating a dead horse, I’m going to take a further look at GM Brian Gutekunst’s draft history.
In my previous post, I produced compelling evidence that Gutekunst departed wildly from most other scouting assessments leading up to the 2020 NFL draft. He gambled on any number of players who were not nearly as highly-rated by other forecasters, and chiefly by Pro Football Focus. In this post, I’ve gone back to look at the Packers selections in 2019 and 2018 – the first two years of Gutekunst’s reign as general manager.
A quick note on comparators: There are at least a dozen national publishers of mock NFL drafts, though not that many make predictions covering all seven rounds. I’ve shopped around and sampled several such sources. These organizations, or in some cases individuals, derive their profits or earn their livings based on the accuracy of their forecasts.
They depend on the reputations they develop over time. They are generally knowledgeable, thorough, and best of all, they have no built-in bias in favor of a certain team. They are a great source of knowledge and experience that should not be disregarded – especially when they line up in lock step in disagreement with Gutey’s selections. It should be a bright red flag whenever a team’s draft picks differ so greatly from such a body of experts.
Green Bay had the luxury of 11 selections in Gutekunst’s first year on the job. I did comparisons with Walter Football (WF), draftsite.com (DS) and Bleacher Report (BR).
The Pack selected Jaire Alexander in Round 1, with the 18th overall draft pick. BR had him on the nose at 18, DS at 33, and WF at 42. The Pack aligned with the consensus.
The Pack chose Josh Jackson in Round 2, at 45. BR had him at 18 and DS at 23 – with both projecting Jackson to go before Alexander. WF had him at 40. Again, the Packers aligned closely with convention. Unless Jackson rebounds in his third year in the pros, it looks like everyone, not just the Pack, overrated the Iowa cornerback.
In Round 3, the Pack made Oren Burks a surprise pick at 88. WF had him at 127, BR at 245, and DS left him off its list. This constitutes a wild gamble by Gutekunst, and one that has failed miserably to date.
In Round 4, the Pack selected receiver J’Mon Moore at 133. BR rated him closely, at 129, but DS had him at 222, and WF omitted him entirely. The variance of opinions rendered this pick a considerable gamble, and by now it’s obvious the pick made a big mistake.
Early in Round 5, the Pack picked Cole Madison at 138. WF and BR were closely aligned, at 142 and 147 respectively, while DS had him back at 238. A consensus pick in two out of three cases.
The Pack selected Equanimeous St. Brown in the sixth round, at 207. DS had him at 65, and WF at 67 – numbers in line with a late-second round or early third-round pick. BR had him way down at 241. Chosen at #207, he was certainly a worthwhile late-round risk.
Interestingly, there was a guy who the Packers passed on, though all three comparators had him on their lists: Allen Lazard was rated at 202 by WF, at 212 by BR, and at 255 (second to last) by DS.
I did comparisons with the 2019 mock drafts of Walter Football (WF), CBS Sports (CBS), and nfl.com (NFL).
The Pack selected Rashan Gary in Round 1, with the 12th overall draft pick. WF and CBS both precisely predicted Rashan would go at #12; NFL had him at 17. Though many have doubted this pick, Gary was a consensus choice – we’ll see how he does if he is given increased playing time.
The Pack chose Darnell Savage at 21. WF had him at 43; CBS at 65; and NFL at 35. GB chose him earlier than others would have, but still the pick was in the ballpark.
The Pack chose Elgton Jenkins at 44. CBS had him at 48, and NFL had him at 78, while WF missed this boat entirely. Again Green Bay had him out ahead of others, but not wildly so.
The Pack chose Jace Sternberger at #75. WF had him at 81, CBS at 61, and NFL at 54. For once, Green Bay appears to have gotten a bargain: a player who others thought would be chosen earlier.
The Pack didn’t choose again until the fifth round, when they selected Kingsley Keke at 150. WF and CBS had Keke at 101, and NFL had him at 97. All three comparators agreed that Keke would go around 50 choices earlier than he did – maybe we should view his potential as that of a third-rounder rather than a fifth-rounder. I look forward to Keke getting on the field more often.
Green Bay’s late-round picks were also somewhat in line with the comparators. WF had Ka’Dar Hollman going at 162, and the Packers took him at 185. CBS had Dexter Williams going at 172, and NFL had him at 194 – and the Pack got him exactly at 194. Finally, WF had Ty Summers going at 170; Green Bay got him at 226.
In 2018, his first year as GM, Gutekunst adhered to the scouting consensus in most of his picks. However, the Round 3 choice of Burks, is looking like a misguided gamble. Also, the fifth-round gamble on Marquez Valdes-Scantling went against the consensus, as none of the three comparators had him anywhere on their lists.
In 2019, the club adhered pretty closely to the conventional wisdom, especially in the critical first three rounds. Gutekunst appears to have gotten some excellent values in obtaining players that comparators predicted would have been picked off earlier: Sternberger, Keke, Hollman, Summers. This was Gutey’s best draft – and the one most aligned with the scouting community.
It was in 2020 that Gutekunst strayed far off the reservation. As noted in my previous post (here), Jordan Love is a huge gamble, something you don’t want to be doing in Round 1. RB A.J. Dillon was an even more dubious choice – I checked with six prognosticators, and most had him going nowhere near Round 2. Nor did the comparators think much of TE Josiah Deguara, the Round 3 pick – Pro Football Focus viewed him as a sixth- round prospect.
Whenever Gutekunst has departed wildly from the general consensus, his gambles appear at this juncture to have been costly mistakes, such as with Oren Burks, J’Mon Moore, and MVS.
But in 2020, Gutey went completely against the grain on all of his highest picks: Love, Dillon, and Degurara. Sure, it’s premature to utterly write off these gambles, but the post-draft verdicts have been damning: the strong consensus is that Green Bay had not just a poor draft, but the league’s worst draft.
They say that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. My sense is that Gutekunst, who was given a contract through 2022, has become overly confident and power-hungry in his third year on the job. His choices suggest that he thinks he can outsmart the rest of the NFL’s GM’s and owners. He just took huge gambles on all three of his first picks, and gave up his fourth rounder.
Our GM is staying true to the board – but this board has his imprint all over it. The board is his own creation. Our GM has gone rogue!
What Brian Gutekunst is relying on is his own judgment, and in doing so he’s disregarding that of almost every NFL scouting and drafting expert in the country. That’s a leap of faith I’m not prepared to make.
Now, more than ever, the Packers will have to rely upon those who were already on the roster – little-known guys who I’ve previously spotlighted, like Jace Sternberger, Reggie Begelton, Raven Greene, Curtis Bolton, and Chandon Sullivan.
Green Bay got zero immediate help out of this draft – that’s unheard of. Unless we get a bunch of breakout performances by relative unknowns – and that’s possible – Gutekunst just rendered the Packers a rebuilding project.
Quarterbacks in general are risky picks *yawn* How many have the Jets and Jaguars drafted again?
On the surface it looks like this draft doesn’t have immediate contributors, but the fact of the matter is, we have no idea how the season is going to play out (if it is even played). Disclaimer: I am not comparing this squad to the 2010 super bowl team. If you told me going into the year that Bryan Bulaga, Andrew Quarless, James Starks, and Sam Shields we’re going to be key players for that super bowl team, people would have called you high. Granted Bulaga was going to replace Tauscher at some point but he was not pencilled in as the starter to begin the year. Let’s just cool it a bit with this whole none of these guys matter to the 2020 season and just let it play itself out
Give him a fishing rod on that riverboat. Then he can tell us tall tales on how the draft board and Love “just fell to him”. – PF4L
Here’s a guy who doubted Gary…
“I can see why teams would feel like they could be the ones to really tap into his potential, but I think the downside risk would be too much for me to take him on the first night of the draft.
There are sometimes when potential trumps production, but I’m just not sold that this is one of those times.
It is what it is.” – Stephen White ..Ex NFL Def. end. Apr 25, 2019, 9:41pm EDT
Then top it off, not having a place to start him. Is this how you give the team immediate help….Gute?
Fine, i’ll finally say it, this should be Gute’s last season. If anyone has a problem with that and wants to debate me on Gute’s Pro’s and Cons of his personnel moves, lets do it. Don’t worry about packing a lunch, it won’t take me that long.
Riverboat gambler’s sometimes win because they have balls and smarts. This fucking moron has neither. I can’t even believe I’m saying this, but after waiting forever for the white rat to be put out to pasture, this fucking douchebag has the potential to be even worse. Didn’t think it was humanely possible. This team had a horseshoe up its ass last year. Worst 13-3 team ever. Needed help in a few key spots. Got stugots!
This article made me rehash the ‘18 draft when Derwin James was sitting there for us. Gooey trades down. Rather have James or Jaire at this point? Jackson next and blows like so many other of his hair brained picks.
Packers the laughing stock of the NFL right now. Have a brain dead GM and a HC that hopes to be Kyle Shanahan. Gonna be a long season and a long time to recuperate from this fucking debacle. Good news is we’ll be drafting early in the years to come. And as long as the Stooges (Gap tooth is Moe) are running the show, we’ll be back in the pre Favre era in no time.
That’s as positive a spin as I can put on this pile of dog shit
Laughing stock? Yeah ok broski. Try the jaguars, Texans, browns, Jets, lions, Rams. Do you know the definition of laughingstock?
Green Bay got zero immediate help out of this draft – that’s unheard of. Unless we get a bunch of breakout performances by relative unknowns – and that’s possible – Gutekunst just rendered the Packers a rebuilding project……
MAYBE… but don’t you think we need the season to play out before this assessment? Take a look back at 2005 draft grades for example. Post draft the Packers got lots of D’s and F’s…. Sound familar?
Team Kiper Dr. Z Bell Borges Prisco Pompei Rang Pierson Gosselin Maske
Kansas City C C+ C A C- A B B- D C+
Green Bay C B- D B+ C B A C- C A
San Diego C B+/A- B C+ A A- A+ B+ C A-
Jacksonville C+ B- C C- B D B+ D C B+
Minnesota B+ A B A A A+ A A A+ C-
San Francisco B B+ B C A B- A+ B B B
Cincinnati A- B- C B A C+ B B C C
I see one D, as the worst in 2005.
I think Pierson may sum it up best: “If Rodgers eventually replaces Favre with any degree of success, it will be a great draft.
So, with that said, this years draft, is what it is, until proven different. Just because Rodgers was a success after Favre. Is no guarantee Love will have success. It has to be earned, on the field.
If Love eventually has success, then at that time and only that time, will success be acknowledged. Once it is earned.
2005 2nd round pick…Nick Collins
“Safety Nick Collins, the first of two second-round choices, hails from the Division I-AA ranks at Bethune-Cookman and no doubt will have a hard time getting on the field as a rookie because of his mental shortcomings.” – Bob McGinn
Collins was an instant starter playing 6 full seasons. 3x Pro Bowl…3x All-Pro. Potential HOF player had he not injured his neck in the 2nd game of his 7th season.
Maybe Favre’s words carry more weight than mine i reckon, i probably suffer the same mental shortcomings as Nick Collins, Truth is, i’m not very bright. But anyway……
“Green Bay’s one of [the teams] that should be playing for now,” Favre told Eisen. “They don’t draft any weapons, not just in the first round, but any weapons that can help immediately to my knowledge. And that just sends a disrespect message to Aaron Rodgers.”
For those who might suffer the same mental shortcomings that i do. I think Favre is pointing to the lack of high round offensive skill players. He may have a point considering the last 1st round skill player drafted by the Packers was Rodgers in 2005. That was ummmm about 15 years ago.
Again, i’m not to proud to again acknowledge, that Rob had it right.
In fairness to the Packers, lets acknowledge that they brought in highly skilled players to help, like Marty Bennett, Jimmy G and D. Funchbunches.
Favre’s first round ‘weapons’ were Javon Walker and Bubba Franks. Walker had one good year. Franks was solid, but no Gronkowski. Sometimes I wonder if Favre was talking about himself. Notice how he said ‘don’t draft’, not ‘didn’t draft’.
In fairness, the Packers tried trading for Robby Anderson, and signing Emmanuel Sanders, but the price was too high for both. Please keep trying
Look back on the grades given to the Packers 2005 draft. Specifically the picks of Rodgers and Nick Collins. At the time conventional wisdom had the packers drafting for there front 7 on Defense to give Favre another super bowl run. In the end this draft gave us the 2010 Lombardi trophy. You are just like the draft geeks. Wanna be G.M.s smarter than the guys paid to do the drafting. Let time give the test on this draft not your 1 week hindsight 20/20 vision.
While it doesn’t look good reading all of the projections, it’s been fun for me to watch some of the highlight films, on the newest players. 4 or 5 years ago now, the Vikings selected Laquan Treadwell, with the 16th pick of the draft. Let’s think in that a little.
Do you see him as a Viking Superstar now?
Let’s compare him to the Vikings # 1 WR now, Adam Theilen. Did any of you notice where Theilen was drafted ? Any guesses for all of you geniusas out there. We did not quite as bad with J’Mon Moore, only because he was a 4th rounder, but he is gone now, but we still have receivers here that are capable enough to have stayed on our roster, and they were picked much later. Some of you people profess to be so smart, as to who we draft and why. There are players that get drafted in every round, that probably can’t read or write. But not being able to grasp a complex offense, or study a playbook, well enough to get on the football field is really a waste also. Then you have players like Diggs, Javon Walker, Antonio Brown, and a few others that have to be the center of attention, and destroy the chemistry of an entire team, making trouble, or getting into it wherever they may go. I’ve been proud of the Packers, for as long as I can remember. There has always been a tradition of sweeping trash out the door, and selecting players that bring much more to Green Bay, than just the mere bit of being physically talented. It becomes a bit more than football for a lot of these, and it looks like a stronger bond was then formed by earning respect both as a citizen and a player. I have noticed this a good many times, in all my years of being a fan here. I can remember us having to lose a few players, because they didn’t cut it, as far as using intelligence, or meeting all of the criteria that this here proud franchise demands. I can cross a lot of draft picks off of my list, if I am picking players for The Green Bay Packers ! I hope that this tradition continues, and I trust that a lot of thought went into acquiring what it takes.
Rather than suggesting that we had a bad draft, I’d rather think that we have people in place that can mold these young men into something we can all be Proud Of. Maybe there’s a good reason the draft don’t look so good, to so many, on paper. Let’s see what we got, once we have given these boys the opportunity to play for the greatest franchise on the planet.
When you go on an incoherent rant trying to insult people…at least spell geniuses correctly you moron. WE all want you to shut up, so WE can discuss this draft for what it was, a pile of shit. You know in the 2016 draft when Minnesota picked Treadwell, Green Bay traded up in the second round to select turnstile dumpster fire Jason Spriggs. That may be worse that a bust receiver at 16 because it cost THEM another pick to do it. Just like Love did. Stop saying WE like you’re on the payroll fool.
you are right…Treadwell was chosen in the first round. So were DeAndre Hopkins…Julio Jones…obj…Mike Evans…and a host of others.
Do you want to use your logic and go over first round quarterbacks who didn’t pan out?
Why do all these deep thinkers keep missing the point. Jason Spriggs was a 2nd pick, Bahktiari was a 4th round pick….that’s not the point.
Listen to me, listen to Favre…it’s about giving up, and not helping the team NOW.
Fuck …i would have hated being some of your teachers in school…holy shit.
I remember John Ross, Matt Jones, Charles Rogers, and other infamous 1st round wide receivers who were supposed to be studs. You people are so special, I loves y’all. Thanks for the entertainment and wailing away.
I’ll give a 1st or 2nd round pick (that plays) a better chance of helping the team immediately. Versus two 1st or 2nd round pick who sits on the bench.
Sure. But was a 1st (or 2nd Round) guy going to beat out Funchess or any other incumbents for a starting job, especially in an off-season like this one?
Frankly, i don’t understand how a guy who catches barely over 50% of his targets still is employed in the NFL.
Show me another receiver who averages at least 30 catches a season that keeps his job with that catch percentage. I’d be somewhat shocked if you found even one.
Remember when people here were bitching about all the drops Adams had his first two seasons? His target catch rate was 55.3%. That’s higher than Funchess career catch rate. Shouldn’t be too hard to figure out how that’s going to roll out.
PF4L sounds like a hysterical housewife. Let me spell it out to YOU. This whole exercise of looking at mock drafts and a “consensus” is a joke. THERE IS NO CONSENSUS! Your own article illustrated how radically different the draft evaluations are from one person/publication to the next. What a pathetic waste of time.
The Packers did miss a VERY SLIM opportunity to improve their receiving corps in the first round. I guess Gutey didn’t feel like betting this years’ draft capital and some of next years’ for that chance. Sure next year you’ll be able to cherry pick the one guy that made an impact in the NFL and say “Look the Packers could have had this guy!” But that would be after the fact BS. Instead, tell me RIGHT NOW what one guy you would’ve taken, then eliminate the draft picks we did get from what it would have cost us for that player(next years picks also!) and then let’s see if your hysteria was warranted.
Take a page from SF and BAL draft classes. There is your benchmark. To make the point fair, the comparison should be between team’s full classes, so no one cherry picks the “one case that is successful”. We all know draftee success is all over the place. However, there is a statistical decline in likelihood of being a starter vs the round in which they were drafted. We also know that WRs tend to adapt fairly quickly to the NFL. You see a lot of high profile rookies from last year being strong contributors to their teams (yds, TDs, snaps played, receptions). That is nearly unfamiliar with the Packers. THAT kind of help is what we were looking for out of this draft.
Apparently GBPAKRZ must believe Gute when he said Love just fell to him.
But then again he probably thinks it was smart to draft Rashan Gary 12th instead of drafting a skill player or trading down to acquire an extra pick.
Maybe he thinks giving up a 4th for Love isn’t a big deal because good players don’t last into the 4th round.
Maybe GBPAKRZ thinks 1st and 2nd round draft picks riding the bench is the best way to win now.
Maybe i need to just acknowledge GBPAKRZ’s superior intelligence.
THERE IS NO CONSENSUS!…Except of course in here, and in the media.
I’d be interested in knowing how the Packers compare in the last few years to the draft pundits, but comparing the players drafted to the “Best Available Players” lists produced before the draft.
I associate myself with the remarks of PF4L. The braintrust of the Pack failed not in drafting a QB, but in trading up for one, when they could’ve traded up for Patrick Queen. Not only did they utterly refuse to address the need at WR, they ignored the obvious hole in the middle of the defense. Life Favre said, they disrespected Rodgers. The Packers have had the best QB play in the league for nearly 30 years, yet they’ve only won 2 Super Bowls in that time, in large part because they’ve failed to surround their HOF QBs with the players to help them win.
So, you so realize that over 82% of Rodgers TD passes have went to players drafted in rounds 1-3 right? That’s the highest out of the top ten ranked passers in NFL history. 46% of Phillip Rivers TD passes have gone to undrafted players. Jesus Christ.
In other words, Jordy(2nd round), James Jones(3rd round), and Davante(2nd round) have caught the majority of TD passes. COOL.
So it seems to me, it really does pay off to select skill players high in the draft……Good point Kato.
Not sure who the 1st rounder is but he wasn’t drafted by the Packers after 2005.
Awwwww. Are your feelings hurt that the Packers didn’t draft a first round guy when the issues were clearly on defense? The narrative that the Packers haven’t surrounded Rodgers with talent is bullshit. It’s lazy, and not introspective into the limitations of an offense run by Rodgers with young players. Phillip Rivers has 46% of his TD passes thrown to undrafted players. Wtf does that tell you?
Have you ever thought about the fact that maybe part of the reason young receivers have struggled with Rodgers is because he plays outside the confines of the offense so often? When Rodgers was at his best, it was with at least two receivers with at least three years of experience. Guess what? Those players are nearing second, more expensive contracts. Remember when the Packers would tie up at least $30 million in cap space to the detriment of other positions? What did they win?
Remember when the Packers went defense heavy in the draft since 2012?
Remember when the Packers used every 1st round pick on defense from 2012-2019?
Remember when the Packers doled out 155 million in free agent Def. player signings last year?
What did they win?
Yea….that’s about what i thought you’d say. nothing, as usual.
You think you make these great points, but when called on them, you go silent. You’re mentally bankrupt.
Kato….look clearly, thats because the other QB’s threw a majority of the TD passes to 1st rounders leaving very little percentage available to 2-3rd rounders…just sayin
Does anyone remember the 2018 Ravens draft class? They picked two tight ends, one in the first round and one in the third. Anyone know which one is starting and is considered one of the best in the game?
You mean to tell me…that a 3rd round pick outperformed a 1st round pick? Has that ever even happened before?…Man, unbelievable!!!! That is a lot to digest….
WOW……I gotta lie down for awhile.
Yes. Because draft picks are literally coin flips. Tell you what. You are probably bored with this stay at home order. Look at the first round of the 2013 draft class and get back to me with your findings
The Packers are lazy and don’t want to surround Rodgers with talent because they haven’t taken enough first round players. Waaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!
The best thing about coming in here, is being able to learn. The 2nd best thing is, it’s free.
Thank you Kato, for you, and others like you for your teachings. I can’t express enough gratitude, in mere words.
You are welcome. Glad I can educate you on the fact that all is not lost on drafting for the future with your first pick. Let me guess. You were one of the guys in 2007 that were hoping the Packers would trade Aaron Rodgers for Randy Moss? I can guarantee you were based on your completely unhinged response to this draft. Let me repeat. They brought in a veteran NFL receiver with 5 years experience, and have MVS, ESB, Allen Lazard, and Jace Sternberger coming back with a year of experience in the offense. In an off-season that will not be conducive to rookie wideouts having a great chance of succeeding. I tried to go through this logically, but I know emotional responses are natural with you and you are a Rodgers fan above a Packers fan. The team already took a step in taking a lot off of Rodgers plate last year. You can make the case that last year was the least Rodgers had to do with a winning season since 2010. It was a more balanced team. The receivers will be better, and I would put money on that.
My point was they traded up for the wrong position, and ignored the porous run defense exposed by the 49ers. They did nothing for the immediate problem, to win in 2020.
Yeah, I don’t necessarily think you are wrong. But I am not sure that they win this year regardless. Does Patrick Queen automatically make you a winner in a rematch with the 49ers? He doesn’t play offense, and doesn’t change the fact they have scored 0 points in their past two first halves of NFC championships
“Let me guess. You were one of the guys in 2007 that were hoping the Packers would trade Aaron Rodgers for Randy Moss? I can guarantee you were based on your completely unhinged response to this draft.” – Kato
Ok…are you guessing, or guaranteeing?
Kato….go take a nap.
“Phillip Rivers has 46% of his TD passes thrown to undrafted players. Wtf does that tell you?” – Kato
That you’re not sure what to do with your time and you need a nap.
It means that the people bitching about Rodgers’supporting cast are retarded. Why did Cobb have his best season in 6 years?
Well, it was 5 years, but i know you’re tired.
Could it be because he went to a new team, wanted to make a good impression and…
….most importantly, tried harder, ran quicker, quicker cuts. He did well, he even tied Jimmy Graham for TD’s last season, at 3.
We could pretend Cobb’s production didn’t go down every year since 2014 with the Packers, we could also pretend his effort didn’t go down along with it.
Now seriously Zippy…about that nap, it’s time
Lmfao. He “tried harder.” You do realize that Cobb and Rodgers are good friends off the field right? You think Rodgers would be friends with him if Cobb was dogging it on the field! Holy f’ing s***
Something tells me Rodgers is very demanding of his teammates, and he expects the best out of his teammates, particularly the guys he is throwing the ball to. Isn’t the discussion always the proverbial”trust” factor with Rodgers when it comes to wideouts and they have to prove themselves to him on the practice field? And your theory is he just loaded it and him and Rodgers are still friends and hang out in the off-season. I am learning so much.
If you have a HOF QB making 30 million dollars a year you draft to win NOW. HOF QB’s don’t grow on trees, you get him help TODAY. It was a terrible draft. The whole point of drafting a QB in the 1st round is to build around him and his rookie salary, by the time Love plays if he is any good (spoiler he is not) he will already be getting 20 million a year and they won’t be able to build around him unless they hit home run after home run in the draft.
This^^^^ Right on with the numbers. They have way too much in the game already to throw it all away. Mostly because they cannot choose the correct players in the first few rounds of the draft most of the time.
Another smart Packer fan. The “new” GM is mirroring the “old” GM. They do not draft the requisite talent needed. They continuously draft players 1 to 2 rounds too EARLY. They also continue to bypass proven NFL talent to go after another player who is either a stretch, a tweener, a project, has an injury history, or has little to no drive but all of the talent in the world upside. So far, that has not worked out so well . . . Gute IS TT (the Frugal GM) Period.
It is like they are playing Blackjack at home holding 19 (Rodgers), and ask to be hit again. They already have a great shot of winning . . . and then they blow it.
He’s gone rogue? Get a grip man.