On Draft Day, Packers Should be Thinking “Instant Starter”

GM Brian Gutekunst showed us with his free agency signings that he is committed to winning now – not building up for 2020 or 2021. For this and other reasons, Green Bay should be aiming to send one, or possibly two, of its 2019 draftees out on the field as starters on September 5.

It’s financially advantageous to get as much playing time as possible out of all players while they are operating under their rookie contracts. Finances aside, it’s a waste of resources to plant a first-rounder’s butt on the bench for a year or two. It’s also been established over and over that every year there are many more than 32 college players who have the ability to start from Game 1 – especially if you look to premier college football programs, like Alabama, Auburn, Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame. And especially O-linemen.

I’d add that if you’re looking for a player to have an instant impact, it helps if he has three solid years as a collegiate starter, and if he’s gotten better each year. Players who merely busted out for one big year are too risky and unproven to select in the first round.

After the cruddy 2018 season, everyone has been saying the team has more gaping roster holes to fill than usual. That’s the clinching argument: we need a couple of draftees who are ready to meaningfully contribute NOW.

Last year the Packers had the luxury of selecting in the first round at number 18. They did well – Jaire Alexander started almost every week, and played significant amounts of time in all 16 games.

Let’s have no more of those Ted Thompson drafts, where we squandered first round picks on the likes of Datone Jones, Nick Perry, Derek Sherrod, and Justin Harrell.

 

Green Bay currently has the following overall picks: 12 and 30 in Round 1, 44 (Rd. 2), 75 (Rd. 3), 114 and 118 (Rd. 4), 150 (Rd. 5), 185 and 194 (Rd. 6), and 226 (Rd. 7).

 

Packers’ Pre-draft Visits to Date

Each year at this time I look to who the Packers have interviewed or invited for a workout as the draft nears. These visits provide real clues as to what the Packers’ brain trust is thinking.

I always concentrate on which positions are likely to be targeted in the early rounds, as opposed to which of over 300 players the Packers might select.

As I write, I believe that twenty players have been interviewed or scheduled for pre-draft visits – 11 on offense and nine on defense. Most teams schedule more interviews, with some teams doing 40 or more.

The Packers often interview players who they don’t intend to draft at all, but might want to bring to camp as undrafted prospects. I’m not interested in the long shots – my focus is on the first four rounds, and this year the Packers have six picks in those rounds. Having six of the first 118 picks is an opportunity that has to be maximized if the Packers are to return to winning football over the next half-dozen years or so.

I’ve found WalterFootball.com (WF) to be smart draft forecasters. The lists below are the collegians I’m aware of who the Pack has scheduled or held pre-draft visits with this year, along with WF’s estimate of when each player will be selected in the draft.

Draft Prospects – Offense

WR Penny Hart, Georgia State – unranked

WR Cody Thompson, Toledo – unranked

WR Jeff Smith, Boston College – unranked

WR A.J. Brown, Ole Miss – # 26

OT Kaleb McGary, Washington – # 66

OT Jawaan Taylor, Florida – # 7

OT Olisameka Udoh, Elon – # 137

TE Noah Fant, Iowa – # 21

TE Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M – # 69

TE Andrew Beck, Texas – unranked

RB Nick Brossette, LSU – unranked

Draft Prospects – Defense

DT Daylon Mack, Texas A&M – unranked

DT Quinnen Williams, Alabama – # 2

DT Ed Oliver, Houston – # 9

Edge Jachai Polite, Florida – # 42

Edge Montez Sweat, Miss. State – # 5

Edge Randy Ramsey, Arkansas – unranked

CB Tim Harris, Virginia – unranked

CB Blace Brown, Troy – unranked

S Lukas Denis, Boston College – # 157

Analysis

What’s the first thing you notice? The Packers would appear to have no chance at getting Williams (2), Sweat (5), or Taylor (7). They might be thinking about trying to move up from the # 12 spot – but I doubt it, in part because the team initiating the trade almost always get the worst of the deal. Maybe they just want to be prepared in case one of the three is surprisingly still available at # 12. Opinions vary re Montez Sweat, so he could still be around at # 12. If Ed Oliver were to be available, he would be hard to pass up.

At any rate, let’s drop Williams, Sweat, and Taylor, as likely being gone before the twelfth pick. Let’s also exclude those who might not even be selected in the upcoming draft. That leaves:

WR A.J. Brown, Ole Miss – # 26

OT Kaleb McGary, Washington – # 66

OT Olisameka Udoh, Elon – # 137

TE Noah Fant, Iowa – # 21

TE Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M – # 69

DT Ed Oliver, Houston – # 9

Edge Jachai Polite, Florida – # 42

S Lukas Denis, Boston College – # 157

Wide Receiver

I’m been puzzled for many years by the Packers’ thinking regarding wide receivers. A team with Aaron Rodgers should at some point expend a first round pick on a sure-fire wideout. Given they’ve got a surplus of mid- and late-round WRs on the roster, I can’t imagine why they’d be looking for more of the same, much less at receivers who are likely to go undrafted. And yet they seem to be.

The biggest clue I see in looking at the pre-draft invitees is Ole Miss wide receiver A.J. Brown – who WF projects as being drafted # 26. Why would Green Bay be scrutinizing a guy almost certain to be selected before the second round, and especially now that they are in the final assembly stage of constructing their draft board?

There’s one and only one reason: they are contemplating selecting a wideout in the first round – to which I can only say: finally! I have no idea if it will be Brown, only that they are looking at a first round WR. For what it’s worth, WF has only three WRs forecast to go in Round 1: D.K. Metcalf (also Ole Miss!) at 13, Parris Campbell (Ohio State) at 22, and Brown at 26; they list five more WRs as Round 2 choices.

I’m inclined to think the Pack will use pick # 12 on a wideout. I don’t see another position that cries out for an instant starter.

Offensive tackle

In interviewing two highly-ranked offensive tackles, the Pack is signifying to me that they hope to pick up an OT early on – probably to compete with Bryan Bulaga this year and replace him next year. I think either the # 44 or the # 30 pick will be used. WF lists the top OTs as being selected as #’s 7, 17, 18, 23, and 30 – and none taken in the second round.

Normally I’d never use a first round pick for an O-line player, and the Packers have subscribed by this theory, and still got quality players, in the past (Sitton, Linsley, Tretter, even Bakhtiari). This year, though, might be the exception. If not used for the 30th pick, McGary would be good value if he’s around at # 44.

Tight End

Gutekunst, barring a sudden trade, has committed to Jimmie Graham for the next year at least. He’s being paid to be a starter, and in fact a star, at tight end. So, why are the Packers looking closely at Noah Fant and Jace Sternberger? Sure, for the post-Graham future, but the future is now for this team. The earliest I can see Green Bay drafting a TE would be in Round 3, with pick # 75.

Many others, however, think this will happen no later than the 44th overall pick, in Round 2. I’d add that, much like the McCarthy-Thompson Packers, up to now I haven’t seen Coach LaFleur intent on making a TE a key receiver. He seems to look for tight ends who can block – and they can be readily found in the middle rounds.

Safety

With Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Kentrell Brice gone, we’ve got Adrian Amos and Josh Jones at the top of the depth chart. I believe Jones will step up at the least to being a solid starter this year. That pretty much leaves the Packers with Tramon Williams as the backup. Experience tells us we can almost count on losing one or two starting DBs for a good part of the season. We need more depth, and someone to step in if Jones bombs out.

It must be a rotten year for safeties: Walter Football has none forecast to be a first round selection. It does, however have four second round picks: #’s 24, 36, 58, and 61. Sounds to me like the # 44 slot is ideal for this.

Defensive tackle

I don’t view this as a big need for the Packers, but many other forecasters disagree. As often as not the Packers only have two interior linemen out on the field at a time, and we have rock-solid Kenny Clark and Mike Daniels, plus improving Dean Lowry as a fill-in. After seven seasons, Daniels has started to miss games, and his production is waning – including just two sacks in 2018. My hunch is that the Packers will look for Daniels’ eventual replacement (and a contributing backup this year) in Round 4.

Quarterback

The Packers lacked a competent backup QB through nearly all of the McCarthy-Thompson era, other than for Matt Flynn. They’ve paid heavily for it in both 2013 and 2017. Though they’ve so far had no luck with Brian Brohm (Round 2 in 2008), Brett Hundley (Round 5 in 2015), Joe Callahan, or DeShone Kizer, there are always QB prospects still around in the middle rounds.

The Cowboys came up with Dak Prescott at pick # 135 – maybe Green Bay can scoop up a similar bargain with one of its two Round 4 picks. Too bad they let Taysom Hill get away. My druthers, however, since we dare not yet mention seeking out a replacement for Rodgers, would be to pick up an NFL journeyman backup QB, as so many other teams have done.

Edge

Forgetaboutit. $118 million was invested in the free agent Smiths. That’s the route we’re going.

Summary

# 12 – wide receiver

# 30 – offensive tackle

# 44 – safety

# 75 – tight end

# 114 – defensive tackle

# 118 – quarterback

In 2019, I’m ready to see six new players starting for the Packers: a newly drafted wide receiver and O-lineman, the two free-agent OLBs, Adrian Amos at safety, and free agent lineman Billy Turner.