Prior to Ed’s recent post on the draft, I hadn’t realized Geronimo Allison is about to become a free agent. This poses quite a dilemma.
Who knows what we have in Geronimo? In three seasons, he’s managed to start eight games, get 55 catches, gain 758 yards, and score four touchdowns.
As his spare frame suggests, he’s pretty frail. He struggles mightily to gain separation, but he has compensated by making some acrobatic and contested catches. Then again, he’s dropped a number of easy ones. He also runs well after the catch.
His athleticism is inferior. That alone leads one to wonder if last year’s rookies have brighter long-term prospects. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers has confidence in throwing his way.
Depending on how you make those assessments, the matter of how much and how long to pay him becomes harder still. Based on such uncertain potential – and an excess of average receivers already on the roster – do you lowball at, say, a 3-year deal at $1.5M per? Do you try to get him on a one-year deal, and see if he emerges at or near the top of the current logjam of receivers?
Part of one’s thinking has to be: are any other teams, especially those bottom-dwellers with huge chests of money, willing to sign him up for $3-4 million per year. If so, I’d say that’s game over for the Packers.
Geronimo, however, might just be thinking: I’ll never look as good, or play as much, on a team quarterbacked by someone other than Rodgers. If he were to turn down a low offer by the Pack, he could very easily be on no one’s roster when the season rolls around.
Maybe my numbers are way off, but it looks to me like the team, not this player, is in the driver’s seat here.
I am personally more interested in Jake Kumerow, who has the higher combine-type scores, and is 6’5” vs. 6’3”. Though Kumerow is a year older, he has less NFL game experience than does Geronimo. If things don’t work out, Kumerow could always go off-Broadway or on the road playing the lead in Jesus Christ Superstar.
That logjam I mentioned includes Geronimo, Kumerow, J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown, and, yes, Randall Cobb. Assuming the Packers draft another wide receiver in the first three rounds, and that Trevor Davis will not be retained, two or three of these six players will likely be looking elsewhere for work by September.
I always assume that deciding to keep or drop existing roster players is a jointly made decision. Winnowing down all these receivers is going to be one of GM Brian Gutekunst’s and Coach Matt LaFleur’s biggest challenges.
Or perhaps I should include Mr. Rodgers as one of the decision makers?
18 Comments
This reads as though McCarthy is still the head coach. 7 WRs on the roster was a McCarthy thing, as was 5 TEs and 3 FBs. I’ll be surprised if LaFleur keeps more than 5 WRs and 3 TEs. There is a cost McCarthy never figured out by keeping roster spots for all these extra guys that McCarthy never used. An extra o-lineman here, a safety there might have been beneficial. I dare say the days of the Packers leading the league in undrafted free agents making the team in bunches year after year will be coming to an end.
Under no circumstances would I keep Allison. Not for any amount of money. Not with a gun to my head.
MVS and ESB are athletic freaks who were drafted as pure projects, but are shockingly ahead of schedule in development. They’ll start alongside Adams in 2019.
Kumerow is already better than Allison, now that he’s developing chemistry with Rodgers. Just a superior athlete and player–no contest moving forward.
Moore was lost in Year 1, looking much like Adams in Year 2. But Moore is far more talented than Allison, and will likely surpass Geronimo in 2019.
As for Cobb, anyone advocating keeping him–at any price–simply hates the Packers.
With all our IMMENSE needs at edge rusher, right guard, tight end, and safety, the thought of spending free agent dollars or a highdraft pick on a receiver is borderline insanity. If an excellent slot guy falls to the 3rd round, that’s fine–but otherwise, no freaking way.
This is the most physically imposing WR group I’ve ever seen in Green Bay, and they’re developing ahead of schedule. So let’s do the adult, rational, sane thing, and invest assets elsewhere.
I doubt there is a market for Allison. I say sign him to a veteran minimum deal with little guaranteed money and let him compete in training camp. What’s the worst that could happen?
^^^^
I think Allison is a restricted free agent. The Packers do have some options, but I don’t see them exercising those options unless it is the lowest qualifying offer.
If a team offers him a dollar over minimum, it’s a dollar too much. they can have him. Plus i doubt he’s offered any guaranteed money, unless it’s something like $25,000 for his agent to feel like he got a win.
If the Packers offered the lowest qualifying they would be giving Allison a raise of about 1.3 million over the leagues minimum for a fourth year rookie. I don’t think they do that, but may try to sign later at league minimum.
The interesting development today is four Packers are going to get an increase for Proven Performance Escalators. That would increase each one of those players salaries by about 1.4 million each for next year. Each was projected at approximately mid 600,000. Now they are projected at a little over 2 million each. Basically those 4 are going to receive (if they make the team) the value of the lowest qualifying offer for a restricted free agent.
Fackrell, Martinez, Lowery, and Morrison according to the CBA are due the escalators. If each make the team next year that will mean the Packers 2019 salary cap will increase by approximately 5.6 million. All this is because each played over 35% of the snaps and fall within a certain draft slot. Performance does not matter just being on the field.
Rob has a lot on his plate, but I wonder how often the players who hit that escalator are cut, and how often those players later get a large contract? Are they just getting paid because they were bodies or are they performing when on the field?
I get it, but i wouldn’t sign him to a qualifying offer to begin with.
As far as the escalaters….sometimes i think i know a lot, until i read the rest of your post.
I’m pretty sure you can thank your expertise in the NFL to your sobriety from alcoholism, when i said…enough was enough..
You’re welcome.
:)
James Lofton still looks to be in pretty good shape. Plus he’ll be cheap and fit right into the league as an alleged sex offender. He was found not guilty by a jury of Packers fans…so he’s innocent.
#bringbackthereal80
Mossy Cade and Darren Sharper might feel slighted though.
All we have is Davante. That’s it. All these guys are just guys. If the Packers are smart they go get Antonio Brown and Cole Beasley and watch this offense start scoring 40 pts a game again.
Some predicted Allison as our # 3 receiver last off-season, i can’t blame them for having that hope. As far as signing him, i think Allison will sign any contract put in front of him, it beats working for a living.
I think everyone likes this cat, but it seems like he’s always going to be a work in progress the rest of his career. Not everyone has the mental make-up to succeed in this league.
Keep him, let him go, idc. I couldn’t be anymore neutral about someone.
Seeing Jmon move last year in preseason… I like the physical traits he brought to the offense and how he moved in space between the hashes.
I feel he could break out if he gets the mental aspect down… which should presumably be “easier” in an offense where every route isnt predicated on exact timing/highly specific leverage and always winning a matchup.
The idea of the new andy Reid offensive wave is to get your guys free runs in space. Jmon moves very well.
I’m still a proponent of keeping their eyes out for a burner or considering a veteran polished slot receiver like cole Beasley.
We will see.
They already have guys with speed. All three guys they drafted last year. MVS has burner speed. Cole Beasley would not be a bad option.
If anyone remembers, Moore had a bad 40 time at the combine but ended up correcting it at his Pro Day.
Here’s the kicker…..He blamed his 40 time on not knowing where the starting line was. I’m going to skip making jokes about that. But i will say this, That was a flag, a big flag, the Packers ignored it, but soon found out what his problem was. And it wasn’t his speed.
Wow… didnt know that.. great anecdote
Brett Hundley looked good in pre-season too when he was on the team…real season…well you know.
I agree preseason isnt telling of actual production but at least gives you and idea if a prospect has potential. He looked better than a lot of the players I saw out there.
Physically jmon certainly passed the eye test. The guy can move and cut like a blue chipper… but apparently his issue is not understanding which way to run after he gets open.