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Luck of the Draft Draw Argues for Packers Trading Down

The final mock drafts are rolling in and there’s a disturbing similarity. Many of the players that the Green Bay Packers seem to want the most are penciled in to go in the four or five picks just before the Packers are scheduled to choose at No. 14. If that happens, the remaining players the Packers have been linked to are mostly near the end of the first round.

That’s not an optimal setup. The Packers could end up having to take a player at No. 14 who is really more of a late first round talent. That would yield the same result as in most of the past decade. The Packers picked 27th in 2016, 30th in 2015, 21st in 2014, 26th in 2013, 28th in 2012, 32nd in 2011, and 23rd in 2010.

Those seven picks didn’t pan out very well. They include Damarious Randall (2015), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (2014), Datone Jones (2013), and Derek Sherrod (2011). The best of the seven might turn out to be either Kenny Clark or Nick Perry.

I’m not a big follower of draft prospects, but the positions I keep hearing about for the Packers are cornerback/safety, edge rusher and back a ways, wide receiver. Though the Packers’ defensive backfield need appears to be for a cornerback, two safeties are getting as much attention by the forecasters as are the CBs.

The defensive backs, in abundance this season, include:

  • CB Denzel Ward, Ohio State 5’11”, 183
  • CB Josh Jackson, Iowa, 6’1”, 192
  • CB Mike Hughes, UCF, 5’10”, 189
  • S Derwin James, 6’2”, 215
  • S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama, 6’, 204

The edge rushers being bandied about include:

  • EDGE Marcus Davenport, UTSA, 6’6”, 264
  • DE Bradley Chubb, NC State, 6’4”, 269
  • DE Harold Landry, Boston College, 6’3”, 252

There’s less agreement on receivers, but some of the top names mentioned for Green Bay are:

  • Courtland Sutton, SMU, 6’3”, 218
  • Calvin Ridley, Alabama, 6’, 189
  • D.J. Moore, Maryland, 6’, 210

Here’s a look at some of the projections.

Bleacher Report

After the first five picks (at positions the Packers aren’t seeking), here’s six through 10: Ward, James, Davenport, Jackson and Fitzpatrick. The hopeful news here is that these guys have the Packers getting Bradley Chubb, who was thought to be gone long before pick number 14, though his stock is suddenly falling. The bad news is that in the 19-27 slots are Sutton, Moore, Ridley, Landry and Hughes – not great values if chosen at 14.

MMQB

The first six are of little interest here, except MMQB has Fitzpatrick at number seven. A group of CBs come in at 13-16: Ward, Jackson (the Green Bay pick), James and Hughes. Davenport is at 18, Moore at 19, Ridley at 24 and Landry at 25.

Pro Football Focus

After their top five, PFF has at picks six to nine: Jackson, James, Landry,and Chubb, who all come before acclaimed running back Saquon Barcley. Ward is at 11 and Fitzpatrick at 13, followed by Green Bay choosing cornerback Jaire Alexander out of Louisville at 14. Ridley is at 19, Davenport at 25, Moore at 29 and Hughes at 31.

I should add that Louisville’s Alexander has only recently come into the conversation as a first-round pick. He’s 5’10” and 196 pounds – though small cornerbacks have been injury-prone in Green Bay, there just aren’t a lot of 200-pound cornerbacks out there.

SB Nation

It has the usual suspects from one to six, other than Bradley Chubb at number four. Then come the defensive backs: James at seven, Ward at 10 and Fitzpatrick at 11. Landry is at 14, Davenport at 18, Ridley at 19, Moore at 23 and Jackson at 24.

NFL.com

This source has eight prognosticators taking a shot at the first-round picks. Three of them chose Marcus Davenport as Green Bay’s 14th pick, two went with Fitzpatrick and two with Hughes. The final choice was defensive lineman Vita Vea. Five of the eight had Derwin James being taken well before the Packers are set to choose.

Comments

I don’t see the Packers trading up, as it would likely cost them their first and second-round picks. An investment of that size is only justified when going after a franchise QB. Speaking of that, the two teams most likely to trade up with the Packers appear to be QB-needy New England and Jacksonville, who currently sit in the 31st and 29th spots, respectively.

While listing 11 names is hardly nailing down who the Packers’ top pick will be, it will probably be one of these players, whether the Packers trade up, trade down or stay at number 14.

That’s unless general manager Brian Gutekunst takes a flyer on Washington’s massive nose tackle Vita Vea. If he does, it would be two years in a row the Packers picked a Husky with their first pick.

If there is a trade, I suspect it will happen while the Packers are on the clock, though it will have been tentatively pre-arranged depending on how the first 13 picks go. Should Bradley Chubb or Derwin James (or possibly Minkah Fitzpatrick) somehow make it to 14, drop the trade talk. Otherwise, I’d entertain trading down.

The Packers scouting team has been very tight-lipped under Gutekunst’s leadership. Usually by this time it has at least slipped out which position the Packers are most intent on filling and it’s down to two or three likely choices.

I predict this year’s televised draft show will have record viewership, as there is such a high amount of uncertainty and intrigue all around the league.

Tags:
Rob Born

Due to Aaron Rodgers’ reckless ways, I’m officially launching the Campaign for GM Gutekunst to Acquire the Best Available (Veteran) Backup Quarterback – NOW.

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16 Comments

  1. Kato April 25, 2018

    Absolutely zero way Bradley Chubb falls outside the top 5. Derwin James going outside the top 10? Remote.

    I don’t follow MMQB anymore after Peter Kings outspoken politics have made their way into his column, and have haven’t even been remotely interested in what he had to say after the school shooting in Florida.

    1. r.duke April 25, 2018

      Who gives a shit about your bogus self-righteous bullshit

      1. PF4L April 25, 2018

        I do, so fuck off.

        1. cz April 26, 2018

          I agree with, Duke.

          Rob states the obvious and what everyone else already knows…

          Then, in his articles, he points to those predictions “he” made which everyone else already was discussing before he posts his.

          It’s pathetic really.

          Now, he stupidly predicts

          “I predict this year’s televised draft show will have record viewership”

          … when it is common knowledge the draft will be 1st time held primetime on network/free tv

          Brilliant, Rob.

          Usually I agree with PF4L, but he seems oblivious on this

          1. Howard April 26, 2018

            Duke was responding to Kato not Rob. I don’t think PF4L was oblivious to Duke’s comment to Kato, or Rob’s articles.

            I think you should give Rob a chance, but that is your decision.

            I may not always agree with Rob on his input data or conclusions. I do appreciate his work. Keep up the good hard work Rob.

          2. KILLER April 26, 2018

            I thought CZ’s response was fricking hilarious! And spot on! (though abusive. Sorry Rob, I like you but it made me laugh)

            He probably knew R.Duke was talking about Kato and purposely chose to pretend he misunderstood it. Either that or it was a happy accident.

            I admit I have not heard about Peter King’s politics. If Kato does not care for them it is not self-righteous, it is just a personal preference. To not mix sports and politics.

            I admit I personally am poor about not mixing the two at times when it seems relevant. It has apparently caused Piffle (PF4L a.k.a. Monty) much heartache. Can’t say I’m sorry.

            PS I’d like to think Rob did not know this year’s draft would be on FOX. Otherwise… yeah, pretty bad miraculous prediction. Not exactly Babe Ruth in the 5th inning calling the home run to center field now is it?

  2. FTS April 25, 2018

    I just saw a mock draft on Bleacher Report and they had Denzel Ward going to the Jaguars at 29? LMAO

    Yea, good one guys…

    1. Kato April 25, 2018

      Unless they can read the future and know a video of him snorting coke comes out tomorrow morning

      1. MJ April 25, 2018

        LOL! One offensive lineman dropped several spots last year after a video of him smoking emerged from the depths of the internet.

      2. KILLER April 26, 2018

        Maybe a video of the Bleacher Report writers snorting coke, meth, and bath tub salts…..

        Ward will never make it to #14.

  3. TyKo Steamboat April 25, 2018

    The most logical trade partner I see going up with would be the Raiders at 10.
    The packers have the most picks (12) & wouldn’t need to give up a ton to move 4 spots.
    I also see the Raiders with several connections with GB & needed more picks. We’d probably have to give up the 1st pick of the 4th round. But I simply see no one so incredible in the top 10 worth giving-up picks for

    That been said, my prediction is will move-up 4 spots to nab either Fitzpatrick, Ward or James.

    1. TyKo Steamboat April 25, 2018

      Also, the buzz is that Gutekunst wants to show Packers fans that he is more aggressive than Uncle Ted.
      Cool, we got Wilkerson & Graham, but lets not get into a penis measuring contest in the name of image…

      There is no shame in being patient & doing the old “stick-&-pick”. With 5 QBs likely going in the top-10. The Packers should be picking the 8th or 9th best player on the board. Let’s trade-up in rounds 2 or 3 for less capitol rather than giving away precious 3rd & 4th rounders. That 1st pick of the 4th round is precious because it’s the first pick of day 3 & you can sleep on it :)

    2. KILLER April 26, 2018

      Let us consult YE Olde Tradeth Charte here. To move from #14 to #10 the point differential (arbitrary trade chart points — think bit coins of the draft) is 1100 (#14) to 1300 (#10). The Packers pick at the top of rd 4 is worth only 96 points. The Packers pick in rd 3, #76 overall, is worth 210 points. About right.

      So it would cost a 3rd round pick maybe to move up 4 spots….

      I sure as F would not do it. Especially considering that the Packers have SO MANY needs.

  4. Larry April 25, 2018

    Here is a novel idea. Forget what all the “experts” say cause they are morons. Try watching and living everything college football. Than you see for yourself and do not have to rely on clowns. For instance there are some good WRs. Miller from Memphis has made over 170 catches in the last 2 seasons. Dude has some serious YAK. Trading down is a classic dumb asz Teddy move. Gute needs to shut out all the nonsense and let the tape tell ya who to pick cause the tape never lies. If you want player X at 14 you take him. Screw those who will say ya reached.

  5. frankthefork April 25, 2018

    oh boy sherrod, worthy, mandrich, no way Larry…only the ego trades up but the wise trade back.
    Trade up in the 3rd and 4 th rds where the hype and expense is lower.

    1. frankthefork April 25, 2018

      Should add springs to the list come Sept.