It wasn’t that long ago the Green Bay Packers were considered about the most frugal and cost-conscious team in the NFL. The Packers almost always were near the top of the league in available cap space heading into free agency and the draft. In most years they still hoarded the money rather than using it.
That seems like a distant memory now.
The Packers currently have eight contracts at or near double-digit millions per year. These consume about 61.7 percent of the team’s cap hits. A week ago Jordy Nelson would also have been on the list. They are:
- Aaron Rodgers – $20.6M
- Randall Cobb – $12.7M
- Clay Matthews – $11.4M
- David Bakhtiari – $11.1M
- Nick Perry – $10.75M
- Davante Adams – $10.5M
- Jimmy Graham – $10M
- Mike Daniels – $9.8M
Kicking the Can Down the Road
It started in 2014, when Green Bay signed Clay Matthews to a five-year deal worth $66 million. His yearly cap hits were $11 million, $12.7 million, $13.5 million, $15.1 million (an obscene amount for 2017), and finally back to $11.4 million this year.
Things continued in 2015 when the team signed Cobb to a four-year $40 million deal. Those cap hits were similarly back-loaded, as follows: 2015, $3.35 million; 2016, $9.15 million; 2017, $12.66 million; and this year, $12.72 million. By shoveling much of the cap hit money on to future years, the Packers have created a log jam of payments that just came due in 2018.
Also in 2015, Aaron Rodgers signed up for five years for $110 million. Those cap hits increase slowly but steadily from $18.75 million to a projected $21.1 million in 2019.
Mike Daniels got his four-year $41 million deal in 2016, with a little less backloading: $7.4 million, $10.4 million, $9.8 million, and $10.9 million this year.
David Bakhtiari got his big contract one week into the 2016 season: the four-year $48 million package was very backloaded: from $6.2 million to $11.1 million to $14 million in both 2019 and 2020.
In 2017 Nick Perry got his five-year $61 million bounty. Same pattern: $5.9 million, $10.75 million, $14.7 million, $14.3 million, and $14.1 million this year.
The Davante Adams deal takes the cake. There’s a strong consensus among fans that he’s being overpaid – his four-year deal averages out at $14.5 million. Not only that, the payments go from about $10.6 million the first two years to $16.6 million in both 2020 and 2021.
I don’t yet have information on how Jimmy Graham’s three-year deal is going to be spread out.
Yes, fans, the salary cap squeeze will only be getting worse in coming years.
Pay vs. Performance
If these eight highly-paid guys live, or have lived, up to the expectations that resulted in these fat deals, we could take some consolation.
We all can reach our own conclusions on this score. Not counting Adams, Bakhtiari, and Graham, who have yet to perform under their new contracts, I’d say Rodgers is a plus, and Daniels sneaks into the plus category. Cobb, Matthews, and Perry have not justified their gaudy salaries. Davante will have to rival Julio Jones and Antonio Brown over the next four years to justify his pay.
Who Is to Blame?
Houston, we have a problem. And the Packers problem is massive. It’s what directly caused Jordy Nelson to be released by the team. It’s what now prevents the team from going after a top free agent cornerback, or receiver, or edge rusher, or just about anyone else. And it’s a problem that will continue to plague the team for at least the next four years.
There is really only one solution: continue to release the most highly-paid players as they enter the final year or two years of their contracts. That’s why Jordy is gone, and it still might happen this year to Matthews or Cobb. In future years, it will likely happen to Perry and possibly to Graham.
Who’s to blame? There’s lots of it to go around, but I’d say that Russ Ball, who is constantly hyped as being a cap space maestro, is the guy who made these deals, and Mark Murphy is the one who approved them.
I fear the team’s fate has already been cast. What’s taken place in a couple office rooms in the bowels of Lambeau Field over the last several seasons might impact the 2018 Packers more than anything that happens out on the field.
I don’t know, the Saints were in cap hell, had one good draft and became immediate contenders. Patriots ride the edge and stay there. Everyone complains when GB makes moves and when they don’t. I hope they release Matthews, he has little impact anymore, that long hair doesn’t give him real strength. Too bad they chose Jordy to send packing instead of Matthews but someone had to go.
The saints kept pushing salary cap money towards “later”. Well….later came knocking.
Good post Ferris…I think the PAckers know they are over paying on the defensive side, but i;m guessing they feel like their hands are tied getting rid of Mathews because the overall talent pool is already void. As far as Perry, that trainwreck of a signing is far to new as he still has over 19 million in dead cap money.
If they insisted on cutting cap room for Graham, imo…they should have cut Bulaga, if not Cobb, There is a fair chance we don’t see Bulaga ready at the start of the season anyway.
No, it is poor drafting that have put the packers in this predicament. They have failed to draft an above pass rusher since Nick Perry in 2012. Five drafts have taken place since then. Ditto for corner. The last viable corner they have drafted was Casey Hayward. Offensive lineman? Hah! One from the 2011 draft onward, unless you count Lane Taylor or JC Tretter. Both nice players but hardly among the best at their positions. Tight end? Total train wreck. I understand that every team has weaknesses and have issues, even John Schneider has had issues putting together a competent offensive line. But really every position group has been poor except MAYBE defensive line. And even then they have had a couple big misses. Poor drafting led to bad contracts for Perry and Adams. And desperation deals for Bennett, Jimmy Graham, Ahmad Brooks, Nick Perry.
Jimmy Graham’s deal is essentially a one year deal by the sounds of it.
I forgot the Cobb contract came on the heels of one very productive season. Again, that came when the packers didn’t have a viable #2 guy at the time (Adams was coming off a rookie season) and were basically forced to sign him to a deal that he would have likely gotten on the open market.
I was only pissed at the Cobb deal. I knew they would never see the return on that in terms of quality of play. Its just a fucking ridiculous contract when you look at. The Packers were sleeping when they drew that up.
Yeah, we have some shitty contracts on the books right now, but it’s not as bad as it appears on the surface.
Cobb and Clay are both playing out the last year of their deals. If they let both of them play out, that’s $24 Million we get back in cap next summer. Additionally, all of Clay’s guaranteed money is already paid out. He could be released anytime between today and the start of the season and we pay him zero, recovering all $11.3 million of his cap this year. We could even release Cobb if we needed to before for season starts and get $9.5 Million in cap back for this year too. That’s a combined $20M we could make available right now if we needed to.
Mike Daniels is probably too expensive to release this year (if you wanted to), but only counts $2.4M in dead money next summer. You could recover $8.5M to the cap next year if you so chose.
Graham’s signing bonus is guaranteed on the 3rd day of the year next off season. If he underwhelms, or the Pack want out, they could release him prior to that and owe nothing.
Bakhtiari’s contract is going to balloon to $14M next year and the year after. I don’t think there’s a scenario where you realistically say “we need to get rid of one of the most solid left tackles in the game” regardless of how much he’s making. But if you wanted to, you could get away with it after next season, and recover an additional $11 Million in cap money.
To me, Nick Perry is the worst deal of the group. It’s too expensive to get out of his deal before 2021. He has too much in guaranteed money coming – at LEAST $7.4 Million in any dead cap through the 2020 season.
We’ll have to wait and see with Davante’s deal. He’s relatively affordable for the next two years at $10.5 Million per season (as far as a budding top flight WR is concerned).
That is, until 2020 when his cap hit skyrockets to $16 Million per year. The one silver lining is that:
1) He’s 25 and entering/in his prime, and
2) They were able to pro-rate his guaranteed money onto last years contract
That makes the final year of dead money on his deal only $3.6M instead of $6M, and more palatable to eat in the event we need to get out. That would recover $13M in cap space in 2021.
^^^ Much better take on these contracts. And this analysis would be a lot more informative with a breakdown of how much / % of the cap the top 8 players on the other 31 teams eat up. Then we could measure if our front office is screwing this up or is behaving to market.
Here’s maybe even a better take….
We’re all sitting here trying to decipher how bad all these contracts are, what’s wrong with that picture? Remember way back when we would talk about the upcoming season in anticipation of going to the Super Bowl?
Now what are we doing?….Deciding which contract is the worst of all the bad contracts.
God help us…lol
All of the blame falls on all that were into player procurement and drafting PERIOD. This team shit the bed annually in those departments. They should have been held accountable 3 or 4 years ago for their HORRIBLE lack of player assessments’. Now all of the fans must deal with their ineptitude “moving forward” . . .
Yes. If they had another outside linebacker that was solid on the roster, they wouldn’t have been forced into the bad Perry contract.
I’ll agree poor drafting didn’t help, and you both make solid points that are true, but i’ll also add, that i think they over value their own players, and they are terrible negotiators, who sometimes seemingly outbid themselves. Plus, lets not dismiss the tunnel vision of being inactive in player procurement, via free agency, or trades over the years, which is basically what MM is saying.
First of all Rob, thank you for being an additional voice of reason. One thing i will note however, is that the difference with Nelson and the rest of those guys outside of Rodgers, Nelson has been earning his money, and then some, sans Brett Hundley. Clearly there have been two players on this team getting paid under their peers based on production and value.
More, when i read everyone’s comments and look at the details that came out on Grahams deal.
You choose your roster based on anticipated production… not what someone did 2 years ago. couldnt resist your Jordy plug could you? Davante seemed to do quite fine with Hundley with Qb (even won some games for the Pack despite being covered by the opposing #1).
How quickly you also forget that the Packers did stick by Jordy…. when they let the burner and at the time their best play maker Greg Jennings head off to Minnesota. You act as if Jordy got some terrible treatment that no other player got. FFS… they traded Favre to the Jets…. its a business.
And the Packers are leaders in the NFL in making smart business decisions.
BTW….Tell your sister “Diesel” i said hello.
Judging by years of playoff appearances… in addition to being a highly profitable… they are a well run business.
Last year was awful I agree but they also agreed and made some changes. For what it’s worth I feel Nelson had a good year left in him.
But turning his salary in to Graham and wilkerson is a good move.
Cobb was a good candidate to cut as well but odds are his age is more predictable of what to expect from him.
I don’t think we know if turning Nelsons salary into 2 new players is a good move do you? Or do we just say it’s good before they even play a game with us?
Cobb is predictable, i’ll give you that one, look at his stats the last 3 seasons. I’ll give you a moment.
See a pattern?
BTW..TURBO….Truth be told, you cant really say, we got 2 players for Jordy. The salary cap number for 2018 maybe similar, but actual cash paid to Graham and Wilkerson will be just shy of 18 million. Plus 7 million in future dead cap money.
So some “insider” on the radio today said that the Packers had a nice deal with Graham, that it has a one year out.
Well, what this kool-aid drinking homer doesn’t realize is….A) If you cut him after a year, it’s because he didn’t perform. But…you’ve already paid him 13 million, so then if you’ve accepted that, we therefore signed a bad deal and over payed another guy. Then, there is also the issue of carrying his 7.3 in dead signing bonus money against the cap in the 2nd year. Not to mention, he’s now the #1 paid tight end in the league per year average. In other words, he better be a rock star.
I can’t effen believe we pay Randall Cobb that much. Taylor Gabriel is a better player & for about half of the price. (4 yr. 26 mill. with the Bears)
An excerpt from an article stating that the deal the Packers gave Graham was one of the worst of free agency so far..
“The Saints signed Graham to a four-year, $40 million contract to make him the highest paid tight end in football back in 2014. Four years later, he somehow signed for the same average salary on a three-year deal with Green Bay to make him the NFL’s highest-paid tight end again at age 31. (NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Graham will make $13 million in 2018, a full $4 million more in cash than any tight end will earn this year.) Graham once overwhelmed opponents with his athleticism, but that’s no longer the case. He’s a strong role player at this stage of his career who is still getting paid like a superstar. After years of treating free agency like a contagious virus, Packers fans could wind up pining for the good old peaceful days under former GM Ted Thompson.”
That same article also said that Jordy Nelson’s deal was one of the worst.
So Jordy sucked and was cut, but not because Hundley had anything to do with the lack of chemistry/production. And Graham sucks because he had no chemistry/production once he was no longer paired up with Drew Brees. Hence both are overpaid and have bad contracts. I guess I can buy that, sure.
I think Jordy will have a better season than Graham, not because Graham suddenly forgot how to play football and is washed up. I doubt he will be utilized correctly in Green Bay. I don’t think Driver sucked as bad as his final year would indicate either. These guys literally don’t drop off a cliff overnight and forget how to play. Driver’s stats indicate more a lack of playing time and McCarthy wanting to look ahead and see what he had going forward. They probably did Driver a disservice by keeping him on the team but not utilizing him effectively.
Like I bet they do with Graham. Other than that half season in 2009 and McCarthy trying to make Finley the focal point of the offense in 2010 up until he got hurt, TE is an afterthought yet gets talked about as much as establishing the run. And save for that brief period in 2009-2010 they have yet to replicate or achieve anything remotely successful or realize the full potential of their TEs including Finley.
Spot on! The Buffoon has been clueless as to how to utilize a dominant TE.
There is no guarantee Nelson has a good season with the Raiders. The truth is, we just don’t know.
But here’s what i do know…….Nelson and Rodgers have been one of the best QB/WR combinations in the league…PERIOD. And it was that way until Rodgers got hurt. But somehow, someway, some genius figured out that the Rodgers and Nelson combination wasn’t any good anymore?
Riddle me this (anyone). When, at what point in time…..did Rodgers/Nelson stop producing? If you said they haven’t, stop reading this post, because you have seen the light.
If you asked me the same question regarding Rodgers/Cobb, i would tell you 2015. But lets keep him, he’s only 28….lol Keep him for what…one year? They gonna re-sign him for 10-12 mill/year? I don’t think so either. Keeping Cobb makes no sense.
But lets not let facts get in anyone’s way. Just say Jordy’s old, he sucks, he lost a step, he doesn’t have it anymore. Do that, and you’ll have thousands of kool aid drinking fools agreeing with you.
Nelson lost it they say, but i haven’t seen it with Rodgers. Nor has anyone else. All they do…..is light up scoreboards, who needs that right? After all, we have Cobb to catch his 4 td passes a season.
Kato, can you link me that article?
First off, why keep a guy who is less productive just because he’s younger? So you can get more subpar seasons out of him? Second, who says Cobb resigns with the Packers after his undeserving contract runs out? One reason would be that no one else is going to pay him as much as GB will because the only receivers they will have behind him will be some bench riding seventh rounders.
I completely agree with you PF4L about Nelson/Rodgers connection and performance and also Nelson having a good season. We don’t know until the season is played. I only said I thought he would have a better season than Graham. They could both shit the bed and be pathetic. But I think Jordy will fare better with Gruden/Carr then Graham will fare with McCarthy/Rodgers unless Rodger and Graham develop something in spite of McCarthy. Either way I wish both players nothing but success.
Yea, i thought that Nelson would flourish with Bree’s, based on the fact Bree’s is deadly accurate and could utilize Nelsons superior route running. I’m just not as confident with Carr.
Plus i wanted to see Nelson with the Saints because they are on the come up again, defensively, and have serious weapons in the run game.
For their salaries, Matthews and Perry should regularly be getting 10-15 sacks a season. They are the 5th and 6th highest paid outside linebackers at their positions. However, if the Packers didn’t pay them, they would have been paid by someone else.
Cobb is the 20th highest paid receiver. He’s really the 40th or 50th best receiver by yards.
Adams is paid like a star receiver, but he has yet to put up a 1000 yards and I’m not sure he ever will. He just doesn’t seem to have the physical skills of a Jordy Nelson or Donald Driver.
I’m afraid the final years of Aaron Rodgers are going to be years of salary cap issues and free agent losses without replacements in the draft. John Dorsey has snapped up Packer scouts Eliot Wolf and Alonzo Highsmith directly from the Packers, but when ex Packers scout Scot McCloughan went to the Browns after the Packers tried to get him, it was clear that there is something wrong with the Packers front office, and we have Mark Murphy to thank for that.
Hence why when Highsmith left he made the comment that he wouldn’t be the last person to do so. Something smells funny at 1265 Lombardi Avenue.
Conspiracy theory here . . . does Ginger Gap Tooth want to tank the team to sell it off? Why else would he FUCK IT UP SO BADLY? Why would anyone in their right fucking mind make an abomination such as this brain trust has with that ridiculous fucking slide? The fucking area reminds me of “Graceland” Tacky and garish. Or, on a more rational note; are they really this fucking bad?
All valid points….here might be another.
Murphy had one job, concerning football operations. Being Ted’s boss, watching over Ted, making sure Ted is doing his job well. Assessing his job performance.
All these years, even into 2018, Murphy has repeatedly stated that he doesn’t question Ted, and that Ted is doing a great job, (his words). Either he was too stupid to see what was happening, and the team declining through poor drafts..OR…he saw it and turned a blind eye out of loyalty towards Ted. I’m sorry, but it’s one or the other.
So the problem there is twofold. Either he’s incompetent at his job, or being loyal to Ted is more important to him than making decisions that are in the best interest of the team. Which is, by definition, his job.
The team was on a down slide, and he stood by, said and did nothing and watched it happen.
So then….he gets told to remove Ted (i believe that). So he finds him a cushy new job title, an office, and his same pay (i believe that also). But Ted doesn’t go to the Senior Bowl, or the combine. Friends in high places i guess.
So, Murphy needs to hire a new GM. While talking to people, he discovers a “lack of communication”. He had no clue about this? Hell, i’ve said before that i don’t think these guys talk to each other. And Murphys in the building everyday….go figure.
So because of this, he determines that he needs to have final say in all major decisions regarding football operations.
So my point being, he couldn’t do his one job, of being Ted’s boss. So he rewards himself and re-wrote the by-laws of the power structure, and decided to put himself in the Kings throne of everything.
Broken.