Player personnel is front and center as we approach the free agency market, and then the NFL draft six weeks later. I’m not here to argue whether the Green Bay Packers made sound personnel decisions regarding many of their recently departed players. Those decisions involve lots of factors: how much they were scheduled to be paid under their existing contracts, whether they were physically declining or reduced by injuries, whether they wanted to go elsewhere for personal reasons, and so on.
I’m confining myself strictly to one issue: whether the Packers have been getting the most out of their players, given their talent and/or potential. I’ve talked about many of them previously, but I’m trying to add some additional items – especially how they were rated by Pro Football Focus last year. I think a pattern jumps out.
Casey Hayward – He had a terrific rookie season with the team (six interceptions, though starting only seven games), and a fine fourth season (65 tackles, though no interceptions). Upon becoming a free agent, the Packers made no attempt to keep him, though he only commanded $5 million per year. Two years away from the Packers, Hayward has twice been an All-Pro and Pro Bowler. He’s had 11 interceptions with the Chargers. Pro Football Focus gave him their highest cornerback grade of 96.4 for last season; he was more than four points better than runners-up Tre’Davious White (92.0), Jalen Ramsey (91.8), and Marshawn Lattimore (90.5), and more than 10 points better than well-known guys like Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Chris Harris, Richard Sherman, Xavier Rhodes, Patrick Peterson, Malcolm Butler, and Josh Norman. PFF rated Casey’s “coverage” (as opposed to his run defense) as the NFL’s best by an even bigger margin.
Micah Hyde – Strangely, he was never a season-long starting safety for Green Bay in four years – despite always making at least 55 tackles, and having eight interceptions in his last three years. As with Hayward, the Packers made no effort to re-sign him. As a starter for the Bills in 2018, this textbook tackler had 82 tackles and five interceptions – and again like Hayward he made the Pro Bowl and was named All-Pro. PFF rated him tied for fourth, with Seattle safety Earl Thomas, in his coverage ability.
Tramon Williams – He put in eight good years with Green Bay, ending in 2014, when the Packers decided he was over the hill at age 31. He’s out of the league by now, right? No, he’s down in Arizona – where PFF just ranked him as the ninth best cornerback of 2017. Green Bay’s corners came in at 81st (Damarious Randall), 98th (Davon House), 107th (Josh Hawkins), and 115th (Kevin King). Painful!
Jared Cook – The Packers were smart enough to acquire him, but too dumb to give him a multi-year contract, or to feed him the ball. In 10 games, he had 377 yards and just one touchdown catch. Then the team insulted him to the point he cut off negotiations in 2017, and signed with the Raiders. There he had 86 targets, 54 catches, 688 yards, and two touchdowns. These should be viewed as the approximate numbers the Packers gave up in 2017 by letting Cook get away.
Julius Peppers – We know it would have been costly to keep Peppers another year, but this post is about production comparisons, not salaries. The old man went from 7.5 sacks to 11 sacks with Carolina. He went from 23 tackles to 33. He went from three fumbles forced or recovered to four. All this was in reduced playing time – from 57 to 50 percent of his teams’ defensive snaps. I also have to wonder if his 141 special teams snaps in his final year in Green Bay was the best use of his talents. The stats suggest he wasn’t optimally utilized in Green Bay.
Martellus Bennett – Sure there was an injury, but by that time Bennett was obviously pissed off by his whole Green Bay experience. He even announced his intent to retire at year’s end – since retracted. He was thrown to 44 times in seven games (by Aaron Rodgers in the first five): 30 catches, 286 yards, 6.1 yards per attempt, no TDs. In his prior year with Tom Brady, he had 73 targets, gained 701 yards, had a 9.6 per catch average, and caught seven TD passes. So, Bennett was thrown to more (per game played) by Rodgers than by Brady, and yet was way less productive. Regardless of whether the Packers should ever have acquired Bennett, he’s been much more productive with the Pats than with the Pack.
Damarious Randall – A promising rookie season has been followed by a disastrous 2016 and a mediocre third year. Our PFF friends rated him 81 out of 121 eligible cornerbacks in 2017, and 82nd in terms of coverage. No first-round pick should be doing so poorly after three seasons. He’s yet to play anywhere near his potential – but I’m still holding out hope.
Clay Matthews – He’s averaged 6.3 sacks per season from 2015-17 – at times when he was 29 to 31 years old. This is a guy who’s made six Pro Bowls and three All-Pro lists. I can’t accept that he’s aging prematurely, and I don’t think injuries can fully explain his drop-off – he’s missed an average of two games per season over those last three years. Even if we grant that he’s spent maybe 20 percent of the past three years at inside linebacker, why shouldn’t he be unable to get sacks and QB pressures from that position? This very talented player is unmistakably underperforming at this stage of his career.
Randall Cobb – He’s a classic, and much talked-about, case of backsliding. The consensus is he’ll need to drastically renegotiate his contract or be released by the Packers.
Corey Linsley – The Packers kept Linsley and let J.C. Tretter go. In 2017 Linsley was given the 22nd best overall grade (51.7) for centers by PFF. Tretter, playing better with the Browns, was ranked 13th (70.5).
Guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang – There’s a tendency, and I’ve fallen into this trap myself, to say that the Packers saved money and got commensurate performance when they got rid of Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang. But for 2017 PFF graded these two ex-Packers as the fifth and 13th best NFL guards. Their replacements, Jahri Evans and Lane Taylor (in his second year as a starter) were only ranked 30 and 34. Sitton and Lang have been more productive with their new teams than they ever were with the Packers.
Davon House – An interesting case, he underperformed in four years with Green Bay, was discarded, immediately turned in a fine year in Jacksonville in 2015 (60 tackles, 23 passed defended, four interceptions), then returned to Green Bay and went back to underperforming (44 tackles, six PDs, and one interception). House had more interceptions in 2015 with the Jags than he’s had in his five years with Green Bay. Makes you wonder, doesn’t it?
Bryan Bulaga – He once appeared headed toward being one of the top right tackles in the league, but has gone seriously downhill since his high-water year in 2014. In playing seven games in 2017 prior to having an ACL injury, PFF had him at average at pass blocking, poor at run blocking, and below average overall.
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – Most of us thought he didn’t deserve Pro Bowl and All-Pro status in 2016. He went out and proved us right in 2017 – ranking 40th (and below average) among league safeties by PFF.
Morgan Burnett – I’m a fan of his, based mainly on his sure tackling and dependability. However, his numbers are far off his 2014 highs for three years running. He’s been slowly but perceptibly heading downward at a time when the 29-year-old should be peaking. If he should go elsewhere in 2018, it will be interesting to see if he reverses course, as have so many others who left Green Bay.
Nick Perry – He had one sudden fine year in 2016, his fifth season in Green Bay. He went backward in 2017, but he also had injury problems. He certainly hasn’t progressed as one would expect of a first-round pick.
Of current players who’ve been with the team at least three years, or two years in which they’ve been given ample playing time, I’d say David Bakhtiari (top-rated NFL tackle by PFF for 2017), Blake Martinez, and Davante Adams are the Packers’ select group of guys playing up to their potential.
Those who have stayed pretty consistent in recent years include Mason Crosby, Mike Daniels, Aaron Rodgers, and Jake Ryan.
In addition to those discussed above, others who haven’t improved, gone backwards, or have not been given meaningful opportunities might include: Geronimo Allison, Trevor Davis, Brett Hundley, Jeff Janis, Aaron Ripkowski, Richard Rodgers, Quinten Rollins, and Joe Thomas.
It’s hard to rate the trajectory of Ty Montgomery, due to his many injuries. We won’t know the direction Jordy Nelson’s career is going for another year – let’s hope 2017 was an aberration.
Conclusions
I’m seeing an inescapable pattern here: the Packers draft and development program has been failing – in the development phase more than the draft phase.
Why have so many players failed to reach their potential with the Packers? Why have so many stopped improving or headed downward as their careers have progressed, but before their age should be a relevant factor?
All I’m saying for now is that with a pattern this widespread I would look to the very top of the team’s leadership pyramid for the answers.
Wow, if this doesn’t scream red flag I don’t know what does.
Although i disagree with a couple things, the overall excellence of this article and research involved would make me look petty.
Probably the best read this year.
Nice work Rob.
i agree. New head coach.
To paraphrase Mars Blackmon, “It’s gotta be the coach.”
Very good read. Thanks, Rob, it surely shows that you did your homework on each of the players.