Jordy Nelson – Then, Now, and Going Forward

Do you remember the old TV show “To Tell the Truth?” The real individual had to tell the truth, while two imposters could lie in answering the panel’s questions, so they could trick the panel into thinking they were the real person. A good show.

So, is the real Jordy Nelson the guy who played for the Packers from 2008-16 (minus 2015), or is he the guy who’s been playing in 2017?

In that nine-year period, Nelson annually averaged being targeted 91 times, having 61 catches, for 14.3 yards per catch, and scoring 7.66 touchdowns. His highest yardage totals were: 1,519 (2014), 1,314 (2013), 1,263 (2011), and 1,257 (2016). In 2014, he averaged 94.9 receiving yards per game, and even last year he averaged 78.6 yards.

This year, Nelson has had one game with receiving yardage over 60 (75 against the Bears); he’s also had games of 0, 11, 13, 17, 20, 24, 28, 33, and 35 yards. In QB Aaron Rodgers’ return, Nelson was targeted six times, had three catches, and gained 28 yards. Even in the six games in 2017 in which Rodgers, and not Brett Hundley, fully played, Nelson has averaged only 5.7 targets, 3.8 catches, and 43 yards receiving per game.

Going so quickly from 78.5 yards per game to 43 is an astonishing decline in raw numbers and in productivity. What happened, and is it permanent?

The Logical Explanation

First off, it cannot be due to his ACL surgery. His numbers were fine in 2016 – and would have challenged his best year ever had coach Mike McCarthy not insisted on bringing him back so cautiously.

The underlying cause has got to be that Nelson is aging – even though he’s only 32. There’s simply no other explanation – same team, same QB (for six of those games), same coach.

When I say “underlying,” I mean that Nelson has indeed slowed down – both as to speed and quickness, and this slowdown has had a snowball effect, leading to a major drop off in targets, catches, and yardage.

As recently as 2014, Nelson was statistically computed to be the best deep receiver in the league. We’ve had 14 games to observe Nelson this year. He is not the deep threat he once was. He can still get deep, but now it is only for a brief moment as most defensive backs, being faster, can recover rapidly. When your deep threat deteriorates, defenders can guard you more tightly.

Next, look at Nelson’s footwork. His moves seem like they’re almost done in slow motion compared to, say, Davante Adams. As with his deep sprints, the separation he gains from defenders due to his moves is short lived. He does separate, but the quarterback usually has to anticipate Nelson’s break if he is to get the ball to him prior to the defender closing that gap. At any rate, that’s what I see on the film.

I think this explains why Brett Hundley had so little success in getting Nelson the ball. By the time Hundley got ready the throw, the defender was usually closing fast. Hundley threw a number of near-interceptions in this way.

When this happened, Hundley (and probably Big Mike) naturally became wary of throwing to Nelson, which would explain why the number of times he was targeted dropped off. The snowball effect again. Hundley threw toward Nelson nine times when he came in to relieve Rodgers in the Vikings game; in the next seven games, Brett targeted Jordy less and less — only 5.6 times on average.

Another aspect of the snowball effect is that as Nelson’s separation window became smaller and briefer, Big Mike and Nelson compensating by calling and running ever-shorter routes – and very often routes in which Jordy was hooking back toward Hundley. This caused Nelson’s yardage to decline in two ways: the completions were shorter and the yards after the catch went way down. It’s now Davante Adams who gets to run deep slants across the middle and ring up big yards after the catch.

Similar comparisons can be made regarding the Rodgers-Nelson connection. In the last eight games of 2016, Nelson was targeted by Rodgers an average of 9.9 times, and he averaged 93.5 yards per contest. As stated earlier, in Rodgers’ six full games this year, he’s targeted Nelson, on average, only 5.7 times, resulting in had 3.8 catches, and only 43 yards per game.

A final factor is that, by the second game of this year, Davante Adams had replaced Nelson as Rodgers’ go-to receiver – and that held true when Hundley took over. Adams has 885 receiving yards on the year versus 471 for Nelson – more passes and yardage for Adams means fewer for Nelson.

Nelson’s Future Prospects

I consider Nelson to be the finest man and role model I’ve ever seen put on a Packers jersey – the only one who even comes close would be Bart Starr. It is therefore with some sadness that I forecast that Nelson’s influence and effectiveness will never again approach what it was in his four best years.

I don’t foresee another 1,000-yard season for the future Kansas wheat farmer. Nelson caught 98 and 97 passes in 2014 and 2016 – I doubt he’ll surpass 80 ever again.

Here’s the annual yardage achieved by Packers great Donald Driver in the last seven years of his career: 1,295, 1,048, 1,012, 1,061, 565, 445, and 77. Driver was 37 during 2012, his final year. I predict Nelson’s career will follow a similar path.

I recall Nelson saying that he’d like to play three more years after this year. My guess is that he’ll retire at 34 after 2019 or possibly after 2020 – and that he won’t linger for a final year as a reserve, as Driver did.

Whatever happens, we’ve had the privilege of watching, I believe, the greatest Packers receiver since Don Hutson. He should wind up second on the Packers’ all-time receptions list and second or third on the all-time yardage list, in each case behind Donald Driver, and in close proximity to Sterling Sharpe and James Lofton. Had he not missed the 2015 season, Nelson might have ended up at the top of both lists.