Earlier this week I showed how many factors favored Brett Hundley having a good passing day last week against New Orleans. But the Green Bay Packers managed to squander all those advantages. They simply cannot continue on this path for another game – not if they have legitimate prospects of playing in the postseason – and they do.
The biggest advantage an NFL team normally can have is the home-field advantage, which the Packers possess for the second game in a row at this perilous juncture of their season. Against the Detroit Lions though, Green Bay will have an even bigger advantage: coming off a bye week.
Research suggests that while coming off a bye week is an advantage (53.7 winning percentage), the advantage accrues more to some head coaches than to others. Walterfootball.com did such an analysis. It must have taken place after the 2015 season, because it listed Big Mike as having a 9-1 record after bye weeks. Last year Green Bay beat the Giants, so make it 10-1.
Other coaches who seem to use the extra prep time wisely include: Andy Reid (Kansas City) at 10-4, Mike Shanahan (Denver) at 9-4, John Harbaugh (Baltimore) at 7-2, Jason Garrett (Dallas) at 5-2.
Yes sports fans, Mike McCarthy has the NFL’s best win percentage (five or more games) in recent years coming off a bye week! Who had the worst? Mike Holmgren, while he was at Seattle, went 1-10.
So, in addition to all the factors which the Packers had in their favor last week, this week we can add perhaps the strongest factor of them all.
It’s been three weeks since Anthony Barr’s dirty deed on Aaron Rodgers. It’s been two weeks since the Packers’ passing game planning proved to be a miserable failure against the Saints. Did McCarthy – a notoriously slow learner and stubborn individual – learn anything from the Saints game? Will he make the adjustments necessary to allow Brett Hundley to have some success?
Make no mistake, the Packers should beat the Lions – Green Bay has almost all those factors in its favor. Detroit is a 3-4 team. Two of those wins were against the Cardinals and the Giants – who have a combined 4-10 record this year.
Detroit has a terrible gap at left tackle – attention Clay Matthews. QB Matthew Stafford’s passer rating ranks only 15th. The team with all those fourth quarter comebacks last year on Sunday evening managed just three second-half points, allowing the Steelers to pull off a comeback win against them.
This one’s all on you Big Mike. Hundley is your guy – you’ve made that clear, you’ve had three years to nurture him, and now you’ve had three weeks to center your game preparation around him. You’ve also had a week to analyze and correct the pile of mistakes you made in preparing for the Saints. In a couple of days we’ll find out if you can correct, adjust, learn, and change.
Big Mike, you’ve had talented teams throughout your head coaching career. But without Aaron Rodgers you went 2-5-1 in 2013, and now you are 0-2 without him this year. As my earlier post suggested, the McCarthy legacy is on the line this Monday – and on through the remainder of this regular season.
Big Mike, are you the “highly successful” NFL coach you claim to be – or have you been riding along on the coattails of Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre for your entire head coaching career?
The season is on the line this Monday. It’s prove-it time, coach.
Those were retorical questions right?
Even with riding the coattailes he was only highly succesfull once and that was with a lot of luck. The other times before he could have had another try being so he blew it.
15 days of pad-level preparation. Trust the process. Go Fat Mike!
We all know how this is going to turnout. The words Highly and Successful won’t be used in the post game press conference. Unless done so in a mocking way by Jim Caldwell who is a shitty coach in his own world…but better than McCarthy.
No disrespect to Rob, however…..
The biggest advantage an NFL can have, is talent. Home field is real, but i’ll take talent over playing at home.
Now….about this “bye week research suggest” nonsense….winning teams win more games after bye weeks than non winning games, just like the rest of the season. If i’m laying down a couple hundy on a team to win a game, researching win/loss results after bye weeks at 53.7% are about as effective as flipping a coin…..No thank you.
Here’s what really matters to the Green Bay Packers right now in the real world…….
Can Dom Capers and his defense…..help this team out? Can they win a game? Is that too fucking much to ask?
After what, 6 plus years, of Packers winning games largely on the arm of Aaron Rodgers and the offense, can the defense possibly pick up the slack with Rodgers being out and win a game, or three?
It’s true like Rob said, the spot light is clearly on McCarthy to put up or shut up without Rodgers under center,
fat Mike bringing that on himself. But……..this shotgun has 2 barrels, if this team shits the bed the way they have in the last two games the rest of the season. Capers will be the fall guy, not McCarthy. Which really is an indictment on fat Mike, seeing as he’s solely responsible for Capers still being here.
Capers and the 3-4 defense…..
Capers back in the day, put himself on the map running a successful 3-4 defense. But now, because of various reasons, Capers now runs a true 3-4 maybe 10-15% of the time. So in essence, what made him great was something he barely runs anymore. Is that why he’s not effective anymore? Is he trying to run defense’s outside of his comfort zone, outside his expertise? I don’t know, but i know this….his defense hasn’t stood out, for over 6 years. That is a real problem on this team, as well as McCarthy allowing it to continue for so long.
Regarding Capers, this article has a nice explanation on why he has lagged behind the league’s trend.
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) stats. Adjustments for this, adjustment’s for that..NO THANKS.
i’m just not into analyzing “adjusted” stats nobody even understands outside of the geeks who invented it.
Show me yardage given up passing and rushing, sacks….yards given up per game….points given up per game…turnovers created. That’s all i need to know.
This season statistically, the Pack did improve their pass defense so far. But….the run defense went from 8th at 94.7 ypg, to 27th at 125.7 ypg. In spite of an allegedly improved D-line, and a linebacker leading the team in tackles, and a tough sounding new package called “nitro”.
This current defense, along with last years defense gives up about the same ppg as the 2008 team that got Bob Sanders fired.
So again, the bottom line is the defense isn’t getting it done, and that’s as much on McCarthy as it is on Capers, probably more so. But Capers will be the fall guy.
The DVOA column is not needed to get the main point across.
The interception number and how it ranked throughout the different seasons is.
The take home message is that teams are becoming more conservative with the ball, throwing less INTs, and conducting longer drives. Capers’ defensive scheme was predicated on bending and not breaking, letting the opponents advance, but not yielding big plays, with the hope of stealing the ball on a pass attempt. However, long drives tire the defense, which subsequently becomes a sieve. On top of that, there is no upside to that now because teams will not throw us the ball as often (more low risk passes). Thus, Capers’ scheme became outdated in the last 5-7 years.
Regarding our run defense:
The previous season we had a decent run defense because teams had no reason to run against us, since every pass resulted in 1st and 10.
I get the premise of your point with DVOA stats. Keep in mind, it’s also difficult to intercept passes when the nearest defender is 6 yards away.
As far as the run defense, teams are going to take advantage of what you give them. Last year we gave them the pass, this season we have better secondary play with new pieces. Not Championship caliber, but improved. the trouble with giving up a run game, is you let the other team’s offense to sustain long time consuming drives. Rated 27th is not where you want to be.
So again….the bottom line is end results, or, points per game. Doesn’t matter one fuck to me how the team gets there, just get there sometime in Rodgers career again.
Why does the ads on this website keep trying to download Trojans to my computer?
Deepsky it doesnt do that on my computer. Stop using Internet Explorer and get a real computer you noob.l
You have something against MS Windows 95 ?
There is nothing like the Commodore 64. It cannot get infected because it does not have the resources to run the malware.
Tried 3 different kinds of browsers. All had issues, but only IE tried tried to download a virus.
And I’ll match my technical credentials against yours any day.
Rest easy, Packers will win tomorrow. And it will prove nothing about Mike McCarthy or the overall state of the team.
Even bad teams win some games. Lions have no run game and no LT, both of which domino effect the passing game. Stafford will get hurt bad before the season is over.
Packers at home, after a bye, at home vs. a dome team, a team cursed at Lambeau. Sure, they won at Lambeau a couple years ago but that makes them like 1-19 in the past 20 years. They won two years ago because everyone, including the Packers assumed it would be a win and did not bring their mojo. Now the fans and team and MM are sweating a little.
Also, no way can Hundley be as bad as he appears so far. Vikings defense is great and the Saints have become great over the course of the season. Take away their first three development games and they have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
Packers will win easy but Caldwell is still a better coach and the Packers are still a Browns level talented team when Rodgers is taken out of the equation.
PS Barr’s hit was great football. Aaron Rodgers can move into a career in table tennis whenever he wants if he does not want to play by NFL rules.
lol….”even bad teams win some games.”
And who would know that better than a queen fan, after watching his team win 3 out of their last 11 games last season.
I live in the present. I watched the Packers lose the last two games. And the Vikings win their last 4 games. Oh, and one of those Packers losses and one of those Vikings’ wins? The Vikings soundly defeating the Packers in every facet of the game.
Lavender shit-stains have never won anything!!!! Maybe run wrong way, score for the other team. get bitch-slapped & dragged up/down field in couple Super Bowls. queens are a average CFL organization, coached by the 1 eyed Cyclops from lost in space. Your season will implode in 5 weeks, probably finish 4th in division (Bears have improved).
Don’t waste time explaining anything to LOSER Viking fan. They can barely wipe their ass after bathroom trips. Short Bus fan base in that shithole to the west
Packer Nation demands Les Steckel be brought back!! If there is anyone who is 100% Lavender, its him! Surprised no banner hanging in that new Landfill for Les? Next to Gomer Pyle Grant (that LOSS)
MikeKy might be on to something here. Les Steckel would fit in with Packer mentality and might be an upgrade over MM. OK, not that.
In ’83 a MN family came up with a great idea for a bumber sticker. It said, quite simply, “LESS LES”. Brilliant. I think they made some good money off that, as well they should.
Vikings purple is not “lavender”, oh color blind one. However, the Packer green is properly defined as “cheese mold green”. Very appropriate.
Long Deep Chuckle…idiot
Sadly, I must agree with you in your assessment of PF4L/Monty’s mental facilities.
That was for you fool. Long Deep Chuckle lives as the most idiotic comment made, and you are the prize idiot.
Are you scumbag Viking fans still celebrating over the Rodgers injury?
Vikings defense isn’t great, its dirty.
No, not the injury. Well, there may be a few bad apples I guess. Every team has at least a few. Cowboys and Packers have a majority.
Vikings D not dirty. It’s not badminton. It’s football. Hitting hard is part of that. Vikings are currently the #4 D by yards allowed but faced the 6th hardest schedule to date as per good offenses. They are tied for allowing the fewest yards per play (4.6 I think) and only 282.1 per game.
Dirtiness leads to penalties and extended drives and a lower ranking. The high ranking is already indicative they are not dirty as well as the relative lack of penalties (21st in penalty yardage, lower the better).
This is the phantasm = You see the perfectly legal and excellent Barr hit on Rodgers, fictionally buy in that it was illegal, then extend that to the entire defense in an obvious fit of jealous undermining of their excellence.
On the other hand you’ve got a real dirty player like Clay-mation Matthews with lots of incidence on video of dirty play but you back him up even though he has become a PED-depleted shell of his former self.
Twisting the truth and Hypocrisy. Two classic Packer fan trademarks.
The whole organization is in a “prove it” mode: coaching, personnel decisions, conditioning – everything.
A loss on Monday, especially if it becomes an “ugly loss”, should be another nail in several coffins.
The game tonight will not change one thought i have about this team. The Packers could win 60-0 and i still want the 3 stooges gone.
This team’s “Prove it” moments have long been used up.
If we win, we beat a sub .500 team at home….YAY!!
No, no. Keep them. KEEEEEEEEEEP THEM!!!
Yes so they can continue to supply Viking retreads, so many players cut by Big Ted end up wearing purple. Long Deep Chuckle….I can’t stop…that statement made by Killer is so idiotic I can’t stop. Just like he (I assume you are a he, not a man but a he) can’t stop posting on this site. Killer your team has no Superbowl wins. They will not have one this year…repeat. I understand it has to be hard being you…but stop making the rest of us suffer, I suffer just reading your fake screen name.
If Hundley doesn’t GREATLY improve, the Packers will lose.
I bet Hundley will attempt to make quicker decisions and it will result in several interceptions. He’ll get more yards, but it won’t result in a win. He just doesn’t have it.
At some point, if it hasn’t happened already, the defense and receivers will completely give up and it will look like the end of 1990. I think guys like Mike Daniels have already packed it in.
I for one have not been impressed with Hundley or that fucktard of a play caller so far (post Rodgers). This has the earmarking’s of a crossroads game for the whole organization. I sincerely believe that Rodgers injury will truly define just how absolutely fucked up TT is regarding talent acquisition and how he steers this Packers machine. MM on just how miserable this motherfucker is at actually running this team through play calling and his oversight in daily operations’. As for Dom Capers, his Defense is just plain horrid. Sometimes I believe that his player talent level that he works with annually is subpar (Thanks to TT “The Frugal GM”) still, you cannot polish a turd. And finally a man who truly HAS NO BALLS . . . Mark “ginger gap tooth” Murphy, the most in-effectual leader of any football franchise in the NFL. He reminds me of the Chicago Cubs prior to getting a new owner . . . Why spend money? “The fools will come to watch the games anyway” mentality . . . What a fucking joke these past 7 years have become. What a waste of most likely one of the greatest QB 1s of all time.
“fucktard” is an oldie but a goodie.
The Rodgers injury really reveals what is truly surrounding him. And that, in turn, reveals the true effectiveness of MM coaching and TT managing. All is laid bare.
Again, for me anyway….I don’t need Rodgers injury for proof of TT skills, or lack thereof at GM. I’ve been on record for years on this subject. More importantly, his own actions speak clearly on the matter, with a healthy Rodgers or not.
As far as Murphy, i’m waiting for the announcement of the newly planned Tilt O Whirl and Ferris Wheel.
MMTTDCSUCK has had it right all along.
Thanks TED HAWTHORN. No one likes to be wrong, except perhaps in this case . . . I remember getting run out of other Packer blogs because of what I was saying since 2010! I believe that in one of them, I may have been called at least 100 different names . . . None were any good. Fucking Homer site LOL!
Shocking! The world finally will realize what all true Packer fans have known since the white haired socially awkward faggot has taken over the reins of this historic franchise. Wherther it be Favre or Rodgers, it’s essentially been a one man team as the Colts were without Manning. The front office literraly blows as does the coaching staff. They’ll get rolled tonight at home and may, just may win one game the rest of the way! Very fucking sad indeed that it took this injury to open some fucking eyes!!!!