Have the Vikings Over-Invested in their Defense

The strength of the Minnesota Vikings is their defense – and this has been very much by design.

While Rick Spielman, the general manager of the Vikings since 2012, must have consummated most of these contracts, assembling a powerhouse defense appears to be largely the strategy of head coach Mike Zimmer. You might recognize the name Spielman, who formerly worked for ESPN on NFL Live. He is also the older brother of Chris Spielman, a former linebacker for the Detroit Lions.

During the offseason, Minnesota spent over $178 million on contract extensions – in the span of 10 days – to lock up these defensive standouts:

• Defensive end Everson Griffen – 4 years, $58M, $14.5M average
• Cornerback Xavier Rhodes – 5 years, $70.1M, $14.02M average
• Defensive tackle Linval Joseph – 4 years, $50.4M, $12.6M average

These three players were ranked in Sports Illustrated’s Top 400 NFL players’ list as follows: 172nd, 87th, and 96th, respectively.

They join an impressive group of defenders who were already contracted, including:

• Strong safety Harrison Smith – 5 years (2017-21), $10.25M average
• Safety Andrew Sendejo – 4 years (2016-19), $4M average
• Cornerback Trae Waynes – 4 years (2015-18), $3.24M average (with a 5th year option)
• Outside linebacker Anthony Barr – 4 years, $12.74M, $3.19M average (with a 5th year option)
• Linebacker Erik Kendricks – 4 years, (2015-18), $1.29M average – up-and-coming
• Cornerback Mackensie Alexander – 4 years (2016-19), $1.08M – average
• Defensive end Danielle Hunter – 4 years (2015-18), $742,430 – average

Of this group, Smith ranked 40th in SI’s player ratings, Barr was 121st, Hunter was 192nd, Kendricks was 246th, and Sendejo was 263rd. The top six Vikings on SI’s list were all defensive players.

By comparison, the Green Bay defensive players among that Top 400 were: Mike Daniels (58), Clay Matthews (154), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (180), Morgan Burnett (200), and Nick Perry (226).

The Minnesota defense includes a bevy of first-round draft choices: Harrison Smith (2012), Xavier Rhodes (2013), Anthony Barr (2014, 9th overall), and Trae Waynes (2015, 11th overall). The Vikings finally eased up on drafting defenders in 2016 and 2017. The only defensive player picked before the fourth round was cornerback Alexander, a second-round choice in 2016.

Of these other highly-touted players, those on the bargain rack include: Griffen, who went in round four in 2010, and Sendejo, who went undrafted that same year.

The team’s only whiff was defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd, a round one pick in 2013, who hasn’t started a game since 2015, and whose knee injury of early 2016 might be career-ending.

One reason the Vikings are loaded on defense is that they enjoyed two first-round choices in 2012, three in 2013, and two again in 2014.

Minnesota appears to be copying the blueprint of the Seahawks, whose all-star defense dominated the league for about four years running – but is now breaking up due both to aging and being too costly to keep.

Despite all the hullabaloo, so far in 2017 the Vikings defense only ranks seventh in yards given up per game, at 309.2. Seattle has fallen to 17th. The NFL leaders are all AFC teams: Denver, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. The top NFC teams are: Carolina (4th), Chicago (6th), and, in a cluster, Washington (9th), Atlanta (10th), and Green Bay (11th).

Has Minnesota Over-Invested?

All NFL general managers and owners must strike a balance on how to allocate their limited dollars. Even with a salary cap of almost $170 million, they can afford only a couple of superstars and a handful of stars, or there won’t be enough money left over for decent players at the non-skills positions.

I’d have to delve into Minnesota’s situation more thoroughly, but it appears that the Viking have gone overboard in acquiring their defensive talent. In situations such as theirs, it’s often the case that one or several of a team’s biggest talents ends up having to be let go before they are well past their prime – based mostly on finances.

Going just by cap hit totals, as opposed to contract averages, of the Vikings players who have the top 18 cap hits, eleven are defensive players. Those not already mentioned include: defensive end Brian Robison ($5M cap hit), cornerback Terence Newman ($3.58M), linebacker Emmanuel Lamur ($2.75M), and defensive tackle Tom Johnson ($2.375M).

Wait until the contracts run out on receiver Stefon Diggs ($672,000 cap hit), receiver Adam Thielen ($3.75 cap hit), and the like. All teams face such problems, as will Green Bay when Davante Adams’ current deal ends in a few months ($1.25 cap hit). But Minnesota, by inking those three stratospheric extension deals in 2017, soon won’t be able to bankroll all the high-paying stars they’ve accumulated.

So, I’m willing to concede the Vikings have a lot of stars, primarily defensive ones. The problem is: they have too many of them, and this house of cards is soon going to come falling down in the next year or two – just like it has in Seattle.

Based just on team defensive statistics, however, Minnesota’s defense appears at the moment to be no more formidable than that of the Bengals or Bears.