Shawn (2-2, 2-2 ATS): The Green Bay Packers are 3-1 after the first quarter of the season, which is better than my 2-2 record of picking and that is a good thing. I hope that trend continues.
The thing is the Packers have a habit of struggling in the second quarter of the season, and when you look at the upcoming schedule, including games at Dallas and Minnesota, it is easy to see that trend continuing.
The Packers are getting healthier, no question. David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga are listed as questionable, but I believe they will likely play, as will Mike Daniels and Davante Adams.
The tackles are the key because outscoring the Cowboys and applying pressure to their offense would be the best way to beat them, AKA what the Rams did last week. I certainly believe the Packers can do that. One need look no further than last year’s playoff game to see that, and that was likely against a better defense.
We also know that the Packers have played well in Dallas ever since the Super Bowl win there. It certainly isn’t a place that scares them.
That all being said, I still have my doubts about this Packers team, and being 4-1 with a road win over Dallas just feels more than they are capable of right now. That might be the wrong way to look at it, but in the craziest NFL season that I can recall, a feeling is as good a thing to go on as anything.
I picked the Chicago Bears last week and the Packers rolled to an easy win. Hopefully, this will be a similar experience. I am taking the Cowboys to cover the 2.5-point spread. I think Ezekiel Elliot and Colt Beasley reassert themselves in the Dallas offense, and it will be the Cowboys who control this game with their offense, similar to what they did in Lambeau Field last season.
Cowboys 31, Packers 24
Monty (3-1, 2-2 ATS): Well, at least I didn’t pick the Chicago Bears last week. Of course, I didn’t think the tackle-less Packers were capable of covering. Then Lane Taylor played his ass off filling in for David Bakhtiari.
I’m not making an predictions on the injury situation. The Packers are seemingly being overly cautious there. Who the hell knows who’s going to be on the field? Mike Daniels says he’s playing, which would be great for the Packers if it actually happens.
We’ve sung the praises of the Cowboys’ offensive line in the past — the best in the business. That may not be the case anymore as there are new players plugged in. The Cowboys’ line, thus far, hasn’t been as strong as in the past. I think Daniels can have an effect on this game if he’s in the lineup.
The Packers are 2.5-point dogs in Dallas this week. A lot of people think the Packers should be favored. I do not think that should be the case — not in Dallas.
However, the Cowboys have shown they can be beaten and we know the recipe to do that.
If the Packers can limit Ezekiel Elliott’s damage and put the offense on Dak Prescott, they can win this game. Like last week against the Bears — who are run-heavy — I’d suggest that means a heavy dose of the base defense, rather than the nitro package.
While I do agree with Shawn — that this does feel like a game the Packers would lose, I’m going to take a flyer. They clearly have flaws, but I honestly think the Packers are the better team right now.
Let’s wipe some of that shine off the star.
Packers 27, Cowboys 21