About a week ago, I did a post examining the sizes of the league’s best edge rushers. I was looking to see how much potential the new Green Bay Packers’ outside linebacker, Vince Biegel, has for becoming an NFL star.
I looked at the 14 edge rushing linebackers who had the most sacks in 2016, but I didn’t come away with any great revelations. Biegel, at 6’3” and 246 pounds would be among the smaller guys in this group, but there were three out of the 14 who were 250 pounds or less.
Along the way, though, I picked up on an exceptionally close connection between one’s draft status and edge rush success.
Of course, we’d expect a lot of top players at any position to be high draft choices. But this varies from position to position. For example, of the top 10 NFL rushers in 2016, the only first-round draft choice was Ezekiel Elliott. There were two second-rounders, third-rounders, fourth-rounders, and fifth-rounders, and LeGarrette Blount went undrafted.
Take a look at the following chart, which covers the same 14 players as before, and includes their sack totals of 2016, prior years in the league, and draft round/overall draft pick. I’ve arranged them based on how quickly they became edge rush statistical leaders.
[table id=5 /]
Comments
All four outside linebackers who met with immediate NFL success at edge rusher were among the top 13 players taken in their drafts. Von Miller had 30 sacks in his first two years, Suggs had 29.5 sacks in his first three years, and Orakpo had 11 sacks as a rookie.
Though I had to list Lorenzo Alexander, I’ve excluded him from any analysis, as he never had more than 2.5 sacks in the nine years prior to 2016. Two second-year players, Shane Ray and Marcus Golden, are also not yet proven stars – each had four sacks in his first year.
The only apparent anomaly, therefore, is Erik Walden, who went undrafted and was with Green Bay from 2010 through 2012. Given that Walden never had more than six sacks until 2016, many would also view him as a one-year wonder rather than a top-notch edge rusher. The same holds true for the Packers’ Nick Perry – he needs to follow up with more years of solid sack numbers to be considered a star at his position.
Vince Biegel’s Prospects
Based on the above chart, we should not be predicting stardom for Biegel. As a fourth-round draft pick, 108th overall, Biegel would not seem destined to have impressive sack totals in the NFL.
But don’t despair. Heading into his final year with the Badgers, Biegel was being projected by many scouts as at least a second-round choice – his falling to the fourth round seems solely due his injury-marred senior year.
I’m inclined to disregard where the chart is leading us regarding Biegel. He’s got intangibles – intensity, passion, non-stop energy, leadership, great instincts, strong work ethic, quick reactions – that are hard to enter on a chart. He also has room to add more bulk and strength.
Don’t be surprised if this homegrown (Wisconsin Rapids) guy supplies a real kick in the pants to Dom Capers’ defense. But we shouldn’t expect him to be a double-digit sack man like Clay Matthews quickly became.
I could, however, see him starting in place of a departed Clay Matthews in 2018, and would hope he’d then be in the five-to-eight sack range, along with being strong against the run. Anything Biegel brings the Packers this year will be a bonus. He and Kyler Fackrell should have a good competition for who gets the most playing time.
The chart strongly suggests that to realistically expect a top-10 type edge rusher, a first-round draft pick will likely be the price to pay. It’s unrealistic to project that Biegel will be the next Clay Matthews in terms of production. For the Packers to get him in the fourth round, I’d say that a steady annual production of five to eight sacks would be just fine.
All the above depends on the seriousness of Biegel’s foot injury. Like many of his Packers’ teammates, he seems to have returned to action too soon after his injury, which occurred midway through his final year at Wisconsin.
The injury, for which he underwent surgery last week, is described as a Jones fracture, is a fracture of the fifth metatarsal – which is about where the bones of the little toe attach to the larger foot bones, about halfway between the toes and the heel.
It will likely keep Biegel sidelined until at least the start of training camp on July 26.
Here’s a couple other Packer draft picks that had an injury history in college. Justin Harrell. Jared Abbrederis. How did those guys careers turn out?
And he’s white, so there’s that…very few white guys have the flexibility and bend to be elite rushing from the outside (similar hip flexibility to corners is required) except with added muscle/size.