Jordy Nelson came back from an injury-lost year with a great season for the Green Bay Packers in 2016, finishing with 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns.
While he’s obviously still playing at a high level, Nelson will turn 32 at the end of this month and eventually, his production will fall off.
The Packers are certainly aware of that. They’re going to go into training camp this year much like they did last year — with a plethora of receivers. In addition to Nelson, they have drafted all of the following guys — Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Jeff Janis, Trevor Davis, DeAngelo Yancey and Malachi Dupre. Plus, they have Geronimo Allison, a former undrafted free agent, who moved up to the No. 4 spot on the depth chart in 2016.
That’s potentially eight roster-worthy receivers.
If you analyze that list, you notice something else. Most of those guys are seemingly better suited to play on the outside.
Randall Cobb and Trevor Davis are the typical slot-type receivers, small and fast. Cobb presents another interesting scenario — he hasn’t lived up to the $10 million per season contact he signed in 2015.
Cobb has two years left on that deal and if he doesn’t have a monster season in 2017, he could very likely be released before it expires.
All of this, and his production there, points to Nelson potentially finishing his career in the slot.
First, the production.
Packers receiver Jordy Nelson outperformed 54 WR's who ran at least 130 routes from the slot WR position with his 2.75 yards per route run. pic.twitter.com/nkleoQSUlP
— PFF (@PFF) May 16, 2017
Second, the roster.
The Packers obviously have plenty of receivers who can play outside. They will definitely want to re-sign Davante Adams, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal, but it appears that they are in the same position as last year.
They’re going to end up releasing one or two receivers who could actually make an impact.
Third, there’s Cobb’s contract.
Sure, we love Randall Cobb and so does Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers can’t keep paying $10 million yearly to a guy who isn’t catching 90 balls and recording 1,200 yards receiving. Since signing his deal, Cobb has had 829 and 610 yards receiving in the 2015 and 2016 seasons, respectively.
The Packers could release Cobb now and gain $6 million in cap space. The more likely scenario is they release Cobb next year and gain more than $9 million in cap space.
Fourth, there’s history.
Donald Driver had his last 1,000-yard season at 34. Greg Jennings, Robert Brooks and Antonio Freeman had theirs at 27. James Lofton had his at 35 (with the Bills). Sterling Sharpe was 29 in his final season.
The point is, we just mentioned some of the best receivers in Packers’ history. Jordy Nelson will be 32 this year and only the Hall of Famer, James Lofton, posted a 1,000-yard season after 34.
We’re not putting Jordy out to pasture just yet.
What seems obvious is, Nelson’s future looks like it will be in the slot. He’s productive there, there is likely going to be an opening there, he isn’t necessarily needed on the outside and, finally, as he ages and slows down, Nelson will find better matchups in the slot. That will allow him to potentially remain productive into his mid-30s.
Nelson has and will continue to get snaps in the slot, but he could end up playing primarily there as soon as next season.
HOWARD
12/25/2016 at 11:51 am
It looks like Jordy is also the best slot receiver on the Packer roster.
;-)
Holy shit, i posted on a really old article.
Oh snap, wait….It is a new article. It’s just Howard lookin for attention. ;-)
You don’t put a clock on this guy, he’s a thoroughbred. You ride Nelson out, forget putting a year on him, this dude is an incredible athlete. Underrated as far as the leagues top performers and underpaid in comparison. We as Packer fans should appreciate having this guy, not just for his human highlight reel of game changing plays, but equally to how he conducts himself and wears the Green and Gold.
I was going to make the exact same comment. You beat me to the punch. But that’s cool – your grammar is better than mine.
When the Packers were without a tight end (cook) that could be a weapon in the middle of the field they started putting bigger receivers in that position but lined up off the tackles. The Packers gave Janis every opportunity possible to grab that spot. I always rooted for Janis to get a chance. Janis did get a chance in the first bears and Atlanta games and did not get it done. Janis kept running into linebackers. Jordy performed in the slot, but Jordy performs at every receiver position he plays.
I would think that is why the team not only signed Bennett, but also Kendricks. If Kendricks does not work out I expect a taller receiver will be in that position. R Rodgers may have a hard time making the team if the receiver and tight end group remain healthy.
The only three proven receivers on the roster are Nelson, Adams and Cobb. Adams and Cobb are better at slot receiver. Cobb is shorter, can move in tight spaces, Adams isn’t very fast. In fact no other receiver on the team has the combination height/speed that Nelson has (please don’t say Janis, he will probably be cut) so if you move Nelson to slot, you have no prototype flanker/split end.
Maybe you do this next year after the Packers spend a high round pick on a prototype out receiver.