To put it in practical terms, most of us were frickin’ irate after we sat around for three-and-a-half hours to watch the Green Bay Packers make their first-round draft pick in the 2017 NFL Draft and then they traded the damn thing away.
No first-round pick and thus, no Packers’ action on Thursday night.
It would be nice if the league forced teams to make any trades before the draft. Then I wouldn’t be forced to sit around, wanting to stab myself in the face because of Roger Goodell, Trey Wingo, Jon Gruden, Mel Kiper, etc.
I could have actually been doing something productive or fun.
But that will never happen, so let’s evaluate this trade.
Browns get: Packers’ first-round pick (No. 29 overall)
Packers get: Browns’ second-round pick (No. 33 overall) and Browns’ fourth-round pick (No. 102 overall)
In terms of draft pick value, the Packers acquired more value, by a slight amount.
No. 29 has a value of 640. No. 33 (580) plus No. 102 (78) has a total value of 658, a whopping 18-point edge for the Packers.
That’s not really the point for Packer general manger Ted Thompson, though. He just wanted MORE picks.
The theory there being that the more picks you have, the more opportunities you have to hit on a quality player.
So, the second thing we need to do is look at how successful Thompson has been in each of these rounds — the second and the fourth.
Ultimately, the guy has been fairly money in the second round — Nick Collins, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Casey Hayward, Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams are the hits.
Meanwhile, Thompson has often crapped the bed when making his first-round pick — A.J. Hawk, Justin Harrell, Derek Sherrod, Datone Jones, Damarious Randall. It actually must have been a relief when he was able to ditch No. 29 on Thursday evening.
“PLEASE, TAKE THIS DAMN PICK FROM ME! I WILL ONLY SCREW IT UP!”
The gain in this scenario for the Packers is the extra fourth-round pick, since they gave up their first for a second.
So what has Thompson done in the fourth round?
Let’s run down the list.
- Marviel Underwood*
- Brady Poppinga
- Cory Rodgers
- Will Blackmon*
- Allen Barbre*
- Jeremy Thompson*
- Josh Sitton
- T.J. Lang
- Davon House
- Mike Daniels
- Jerron McMillian
- David Bakhtiari*
- Johnathan Franklin*
- J.C. Tretter
- Carl Bradford
- Jake Ryan
- Blake Martinez
- Dean Lowry
Those players marked with an asterisk were made with picks acquired via trade. As you can see, the only real winner among that group is the David Bakhtiari pick, which came in 2013.
More importantly, look at that list as a whole. There are some really terrible players on it.
Underwood, Rodgers, Barbre, Thompson, McMillian, Bradford… guys who were gone even before their rookie deals were up.
The highlights, other than Bakhtiari, are obviously Sitton, Lang and Daniels. Everyone else falls either somewhere close to terrible or unknown.
Let’s throw out the guys drafted in the last two years — Ryan, Martinez and Lowry. Thompson is 4-for-15 in the fourth round, which means he gets noteworthy production from those picks about 27 percent of the time.
So it’s actually unlikely the Packers will get anything from a fourth-round pick (unless it’s an offensive lineman).
However, considering Thompson is actually more successful in the second round than he is in the first, perhaps having two second-round picks is the real benefit here.