Draft predictions have become high theater for NFL fans. There are probably over a dozen prognosticators who start putting up mock draft lists before the NFL Combine even takes place, with their final lists being posted on the eve of the draft.
One of the more widely-followed draft experts is NFL Network’s Mike Mayock, so I’ll use him as my example. Mayock annually issues a list of his first-round picks just prior to each year’s draft.
In 2014, of Mayock’s 32 first-round picks, only six were not chosen in the actual first-round, but all six of them were selected by two-thirds of the way through the second round. Mayock’s top 18 predicted picks were all selected in round one.
In 2015, six of Mayock’s picks once again weren’t taken in the first round, though five of them went in the second round. Mayock’s first 21 picks were all taken in the actual round one.
In 2016, only five of Mayock’s 31 picks weren’t chosen in round one, but all five were selected by midway through round two.
How well did Mayock do in predicting the Packers’ first-round choices? In 2014, the Packers chose Ha Ha Clinton-Dix as the No. 21 pick; Mayock had him at No. 22. For 2015, the Packers took Damarious Randall at No. 30; Mayock had him at No. 20. For 2016, the Packers took Kenny Clark at No. 27; Mayock had him as a round two pick, No. 39 overall.
It’s pretty clear that the prognosticators, the scouts, and the general managers compare notes with one another, and reach a consensus that everyone sticks closely to, at least in the first round or two.
9 Comments
Him having Randall at 20 is enough reason for me to not to listen to him ever again. He was listed as a safety though, but now he’s a corner who sucks. David Johnson went #86 overall. Just shows these reporters don’t know. Nobody does.
It’s not that hard predicting what players will be drafted in the 1st round, so i’m confused what point you were trying to make.
The point of a mock draft isn’t to see how many of them go in the first round. These draft guru’s are self proclaimed experts at predicting what team, drafts which player where, in the 1st round.
So lets look at the results of what they are actually predicting….
In Mayock’s 2015 mock draft, he picked 6 players right, out of 32. It should be noted 4 of those picks were taken at the top of the draft, where most people and their grandmother knew those picks anyway.
Any “NFL EXPERTS” mock draft is an exercise in bullshit.
They have as much chance of being successful as a blind man with a sniper rifle shooting from a mile away.
I just think it’s idiotic that some people make a living doing this, and call themselves “experts”. Give me a freaking break.
“MEL KIPER JR: Life Story, From Amateur Scout To ESPN’s Multi-Millionaire NFL Draft Expert”
Multi-millionaire DRAFT EXPERT….Kiper’s results…
2013 Draft: 5 of 32 correct, 2 in top 5
2014 Draft: 4 of 32 correct, 2 in the top 2 picks
2015 Draft: 7 of 32 right, 3 in top 4
Only in America.
ESPN used to be the shit. Now their bottom dwellers. They actually,…charge you money to read Kipers mock drafts.
Talk about preying on the mentally weak. Who could also forget ESPN exploiting the shit out of so called players like Kaepernick, Tebow, Manziel, Michael Sam until the readers became nauseous. Kind of like trying to read a Mordecai article, or whatever he calls that drivel he writes.
What ‘expert’ should I follow then?
I think you missed the point.
Follow anyone you’d like. Some people follow, some people lead.
Kiper’s ability in predicting NFL success is much lower than your average NFL GM. In the first 15 picks, there’s something like a 55% chance of picking a Pro Bowler, Kiper’s success is around 25%.
Also, the Packers pick near the end of the draft again this year. In the final 5 picks of the draft, success of picking a Pro Bowler is only about 28% about half what it is when picking a top 15 pick.
I’m surprised Kiper’s average is that high honestly. That guy is a douche. A very annoying one at that.
He looks like Eddie Munster…50 years later.