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Revised Look at Packers’ Strength of Schedule

At the start of the season, the Green Bay Packers, based on teams’ win-loss records in 2015, were projected to have the league’s easiest schedule. Their opponents had a cumulative win percentage of .457 last year. It hasn’t turned out that way. Packers’ opponents are at .556 to date.

The Packers’ five remaining foes have a combined .509 winning percentage.

Of considerable interest, the Detroit Lions’ foes have a .554 win percentage. Unfortunately, when they play the Cowboys (currently at 11-1) on December 26, Dallas will almost surely have clinched its division and be playing its backups.

Despite having just about the worst quarterback in the NFL and facing better than average teams, the Houston Texans have a winning record going into Sunday’s game at Lambeau. Houston’s wins have come against (win-loss record in parenthesis): the Bears (2-9), Chiefs (8-3), Titans (6-6), Colts (5-6), Lions (7-4), and Jaguars (2-9) — the cumulative winning percentage of these teams is .441.

Their losses have been to: the Patriots (9-2), Vikings (6-6), Broncos (7-4), Raiders (9-2), and Chargers (5-6) – cumulative win percentage is .643.

The Texans are a competitive team, with all their games except against New England and Denver decided by eight or fewer points.

Green Bay’s wins have come against the Jaguars (2-9), Lions (7-4), Giants (8-3), Bears (2-9), and Eagles (5-6) — cumulative win percentage is .436.

Their losses have been to: the Vikings (6-6), Cowboys (11-1), Falcons (7-4), Colts (5-6), Titans (6-6), and Redskins (6-4-1) — cumulative win percentage is .661.

Neither team has lost to a team with a markedly inferior record. The high points for the two teams were Houston’s win over the Chiefs and the Packers win over the unexpectedly-strong Giants – each opponent currently has an 8-3 record.

Both teams play about up to their expectations. Going into Sunday’s game, they are about as evenly matched as possible. The deciding factor: Houston is only 1-4 away from home.

The above stats suggest that Green Bay should narrowly win this game, improving its home record to 4-2.

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Rob Born

I’m with Matt: “You gotta make those chunk plays!”

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2 Comments

  1. PF4L December 4, 2016

    So what you’re saying is, the Packers haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record since Oct. 9th.

    I’ll let the Packer faithful rejoice in celebrate over this humongous victory for a while.

    TT and MM should be breathing a little easier now that the Packers have schooled the mighty Goliath Brock Osweiler. It must be nice for them, this way, no one but Capers loses his job. I’m so fucking happy.

    Stay tuned folks.

  2. PF4L December 4, 2016

    “Neither team has lost to a team with a markedly inferior record.”

    Not many teams lose to other teams with inferior records my man. That why they have inferior records.