Most successful NFL coaches have seasonal records that look like the classic bell curve: rising winning percentages peaking at the height of their careers and then descending over the final years of coaching.
There are, of course, a few exceptions – and they tend to be at the top of the list of all-time winningest head coaches list.
A few of the great ones, as shown in the list below never experienced a major end-of-career slump. Andy Reid is actually getting better – from 1999 through 2012 with the Eagles, he was 130-93 (.583), but with the Chiefs over the last four years he’s at 38-19 (.667). Columns are: number of years as head coach, years in the league, win-loss record over that span of years, and winning percentage.
John Madden (OAK) – 10 – 1969-1978 – 103-32 – .750
Vince Lombardi (GB) – 10 – 1959-1969 – 96-34 – .738
Tony Dungy (TB-IND) – 13 – 1996-2008 – 139-69 – .668
Bill Belichick (NE) – 21 – 1991-2016 – 230-115 – .667
Andy Reid (PHI-KC) – 18 – 1999-2016 – 168-112 – .600
Note: If playoff records are included, Lombardi has a higher winning percentage than Madden.
Here is a partial list of successful coaches who fit the bell-shaped curve pattern; the top line shows their glory years, and the second line records their final years of coaching.
Don Shula (MIA) – 32 – 1963-1985 – 168-63 – .727
1986-1995 – 89-70 – .560
Tom Landry (DAL) – 29 – 1966-1983 – 189-66 – .741
1984-1988 – 36-43 – .456
Bud Grant (MIN) – 18 – 1969-1978 – 104-36 – .743
1079-1985 – 43-46 – .483
Chuck Noll (PIT) – 23 – 1972-1984 – 130-58 – .691
1985-1991 – 51-60 – .459
George Seifert (SF-CAR) – 11 – 1989-1996 – 98-30 – .766
1999-2001 – 16-32 – .333
Bill Cowher (PIT) – 15 – 1992-1997 – 64-32 – .667
1998-2006 – 85-58 – .594
Mike Holmgren (GB-SEA) – 17 – 1995-1998 – 48-16 – .750
1999-2008 – 86-74 – .537
Mike Shanahan (DEN) – 20 – 1996-2005 – 106-54 – .662
2006-2013 – 48-64 – .429
As I was writing this, USA Today was on a similar train of thought.
“Many of the game’s great coaches had their best years early. Don Shula’s two Super Bowl titles with the Miami Dolphins came in his third and fourth seasons. Three of Bill Belichick’s four Super Bowl titles with the New England Patriots came in his first five seasons. Chuck Noll coached the Steelers for 23 years, but each of his four Super Bowl titles came in the first 11 seasons. Joe Gibbs coached Washington for 16 years, but each of his three titles came in his first 11 seasons.”
Mile McCarthy is in his 11th year as a head coach, all with Green Bay. His record of 108-60 computes to a fine .642 win percentage. However, he appears to have begun his coaching descent.
While many people are still viewing McCarthy as the coach he once was, more astute observers are realizing he just isn’t that coach anymore.