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Forecasting the Packers’ Final Six Games

At long last, the Green Bay Packers’ passing offense has largely stabilized, and it no longer resembles the 2015 attack. Barring further injuries, the team appears set at wide receiver. We should therefore expect scoring to continue to hover around the 25-point mark – in five of the last seven games, Green Bay has scored from 23 to 26 points.

Two factors could positively influence this pattern. If Aaron Rodgers starts targeting his tight ends and running backs more frequently, as he did last Sunday, the scoring could rise up into the 30s. This could also happen if the team can cobble together a running attack this late in the season. I believe recently-acquired running back Christine Michael has that potential, whereas James Starks does not.

The Packers’ porous defense looks to be a long-term condition. Given that problem, as long as the Packers offense keeps on scoring less than 30 points per game, I don’t see how they can win more than one or two of their remaining games this year.

What remaining hope I have for an eight- or nine-win season is dependent on two players: Jared Cook and Christine Michael. My other last-ditch hope was dashed earlier this week with the team’s announcement that Sam Shields would not return to the team this year.

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Rob Born

Smart drafters don’t select the best available players, they fill a team’s positions of greatest need.

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21 Comments

  1. Icebowl November 25, 2016

    They beat Phi and Hou, lose to Sea, then beat Bears and Minn….
    But blow chance for wildcard slot – ending season at 8-8 with loss to Det.
    Capers “retires” after D gives up 210 points in final 6 games….

    1. Icebowl November 25, 2016

      And we fans get to R-E-L-A-X in post season…

      1. PF4L November 26, 2016

        Interesting…I think if the defense gives up 210 pts in 6 games, 8-8 is a nice dream.

        Optimism runs wild with thoughts of a victory over the Eagles and Texans. I see them winning 2 more games, bears and vikings.

        This is how i see the NFC North shaking out.

        1) Lions: 9-7 (Finally winning the NFC Division for the 1st time since 1993.)
        2 )viking: 9-7 (Reality can be a cruel MOFO,)
        3) Packers: 6-10 (Losing is temporary, changes are permanent.)
        4) Duh bears: 2-14 (and with the 2nd pick of the 2017 draft, the bears select…)

        1. Killer November 26, 2016

          A few problems with your prediction.

          *It counts on the Lions going 2-3 over the last 5 games. So many losses not realistic.
          *It counts on the Packers going 2-3 over the last 5 games. So many wins not realistic.
          *You predict the Packers will beat the Vikings. I know it is in Green Bay but, c’mon….

          Reality IS cruel. I’m sure you know that from the Packers losing 4 in a row and being the third place team in an allegedly “weak” division.

          1. PF4L November 26, 2016

            Go tell your problems to Jesus, no one here gives a shit what you think.

          2. Icebowl November 27, 2016

            Let’s at PF4 is wrong and your sorry sack of purple beat GB and make it to post season…
            They most likely match up w Redskins or Falcons – Its one and done Killer…

          3. Mike November 28, 2016

            Vikings were over-rated sacks of shit all year. Even as bad as Pack has been this year, no question they can at least beat Lavender Scum

        2. Icebowl November 27, 2016

          Slap…
          Thanks for bringing this old guy back to reality young man….
          I’ll be at Soldiers Field wearing my #15 jersey to hopefully see them make your projection…

  2. gort November 25, 2016

    Rob, would you care to elaborate? Which games do you see as possible wins? I’ll give you the Chicago game (especially if Cutler is out), but where else? What good is 35 (or even 40) from the offense when the defense gives up 45 (or 50)?

  3. fire ted mike and Mark November 25, 2016

    Still hope they make the necessary changes but I just can’t bring myself to cheer and hope for losses. Although it may be too late, the optimist in me figures it’s all dependent on Monday’s game. It’s must win. The last few were as well, based on the standings and who the opposition was, but now they really can’t lose to another mediocre team. A loss burries them in the wildcard and I don’t see them catching the lions or Vikings if they fall to 4-7. If they can beat Philly and return home to beat Houston, they’ll lose to Seattle and beat the bears. At that point 7-7 probably won’t get them a wildcard but it could set up some big games with the Vikings and lions.

    Lose either of those and they’re done. Of course they’ll likely lose both and you’d think that would be enough to force change. I get the feeling capers might be the only change that’s made. I really hope not but it’s the packers we’re talking about. Shit even if they make the playoffs, win a wildcard and lose to Seattle or Dallas. Changes should still be made. I’m rambling now, I know. Sorry. A part of me wants to see them win and get in but part of me knows what will happen in the postseason and what’s likely to happen Monday and the rest of the season.

  4. Kozak November 26, 2016

    Right now I’m not confidant this team could beat the Bears or the Browns…

  5. PF4L November 26, 2016

    Rob…All i can say is wow.

    The Packers have 6 remaining games and you still have some hope of winning 4 or 5 of those games? I see a great possibility of losing the next 3. At that point i think Hundley may get some playing time. If that happens i don’t think that my projected record of 6-10 holds true.

    Keep the faith brother.

  6. Danforth Cuntingdon-Smythe November 26, 2016

    The only win I see is against the shitfuck Bears, leaving us with 5-11. I think that is what the organization needs. AR12 has covered the gaps in this team for so long, and it was only inevitable that sooner or later these gaps – the result of poor drafting and conservative play calling – would open up.

    It starts with Thompson for providing McCarthy with less than stellar talent for the past few years Then down to McCarthy for being too cautious as seen in Seattle in January 2015. I don’t think the team has recovered from that. It is as if he is afraid that his team isn’t good enough and he plays down to the level of those self-imposed expectations.

    And lastly Capers. It is hard to put the entire blame on him. So many injuries and Thompson not providing him with any decent talent. Datone Jones, Jerel Worthy, Khyri Thornton (a sixth round talent in the third round no longer with the team) have underperformed, and Perry has only now started to bloom. The 2010 defense was awesome but has been shit ever since.

    It is time to clean house. Current leadership has rested on its laurels and has taken the team as far as it can.

  7. Skinny November 26, 2016

    As pissed as I am about this team, I still think they can win Monday night to start a run. This team always plays better when they know they fucked a lot of shit up and have to go about it the hard way. Doesn’t look like much now, but it was actually good that Detroit knocked off MN Thursday. That was big if your looking at end of the year tie breakers. MN is gonna lose to Dallas next week to put them at 6 losses. I’m still not buying Detroit, they will lose at least two or three games yet. Pack are still in it guys despite playing like total shit.

    1. PF4L November 26, 2016

      Holy shit.

  8. MMTTDCSUCK November 26, 2016

    I am trusting that the Packers will “RID THE FANS” of these charlatans and get new management in here. What concerns me a bit is E. Wolf. I wonder where his responsibilities have been regarding the last few years of player procurement (behind the scenes). Has he been one of the people involved in the drafts? in FA? in not retaining some of the players? Does he have the ear of TT? If so, he may be part of the problem. How about Russ Ball? Do we assume that he is involved with these very poor personnel decisions? If so, then the Packer organization needs to run away from these two guys as well. A SERIOUS HOUSE CLEANING should be next in the order of things. This goes for some of these less than talented players, as well as the few massively overpaid players. Fire Sale! Go Pack Go!

    1. Empacador November 26, 2016

      You’d like to believe a guy like Wolf kept a little note pad of who he would have drafted vs. who the Packers actually drafted. Be interesting to see what he would of done given the same choices Thompson had. Not that Wolf would ever reveal his choices to anyone.

      1. MMTTDCSUCK November 26, 2016

        Agreed. I am just concerned that TT may have rubbed off on Wolf. Sheer speculation of course, but when it comes to anything “TT” I grow more concerned the longer he is allowed to steer the Packers ship. As you speculate, Wolf may have presented polar viewpoints regarding the personnel that TT “The Frugal GM” eventually chose. I would love to see those choices as well.

        1. Empacador November 26, 2016

          Yeah, I can see the concern with Thompson having influence. Although one would like to think he has discussions with Ron as well to counter that Thompson influence. I wonder if E. Wolf is privy to any trade offers that were made to the Packers, and if he kept notes on what he would have done with those as well. I would say trade offers made by the Packers, but we all know better than that.

          With the understanding that free agency is a crap shoot, honestly it doesn’t matter who the GM is. If they decide to start utilizing free agency and their choices are the next Joe Johnson, Mark Roman, Anthony Hargrove, Phillip Merling or Marquand Manuel each year, we’ll be having this same conversation except the context will be how the free agent picks never work out because the GM is a dumbass. You just hope the next guy is willing and smart enough to pull the trigger on the next Reggie White, Charles Woodson, or Marshawn Lynch without the fire sale discount being the main objective.

  9. Aubrey November 26, 2016

    So no-one thinks we’re going to run the table then? Just the guy with no faith in his Head Coach, his O line and half of his receivers.

  10. Mike November 28, 2016

    Need to put the Pipe down. I feel your pain, but just look at the Tub of Guuuu Coaching this team