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Week 6 Predictions: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Shawn  (3-1, 1-2-1 ATS): On one hand, it is pretty pathetic that Vegas essentially sees the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys as equal football teams even though Dallas starts a rookie at quarterback. The line opened at 5.5 and has gone toward the Cowboys since, sitting at 4-4.5 by Saturday.

On the other hand, based off the stats from the first five weeks, the Cowboys should be favored to win this game. Statistically speaking, they are superior to the Packers in every main category except for run defense. The Cowboys gain more yards than the Packers while allowing fewer, and they score more points while allowing fewer than the Packers.

We all know the Cowboys have the No. 1 rushing offense in the league to match up with the Packers No. 1 ranked run defense. However, the Cowboys also have a passing offense that is better in every regard than the Packers except in touchdowns. That isn’t saying much, since the Packers rank 27th in the league in pass offense.

Yet to throw an interception this season, rookie quarterback Dak Prescott is known for operating a “safe” passing offense, and yet, he averages 8 yards a pass, which is much better than Aaron Rodgers’ bottom-feeding 6.3 yards per pass.

So, on paper, this certainly looks like the toughest test for the Packers at home yet this season.

That being said, I am going to pick the Packers. The Packers, I believe, are actually a bad matchup for the Cowboys. The Cowboys have been running the football and controlling the clock. And yet, the way to control the game against the Packers so far this season has been to throw the ball. Dak Prescott hasn’t had to do that yet. He should be asked to in this game.

He will also be pressured. Prescott is a good athlete, capable of making plays with his legs, but remember, the Packers defense was built for guys like him. The Packers’ speed up front on defense should be able to contain Prescott enough to force him to throw the football.

In the much-hyped matchup between No. 1s, I like the Packers’ chances to contain Ezekiel Elliott, and the only way I see him getting over 100 yards is if he breaks a long run at some point. The Packers will have to watch for that and realize that running the ball for Dallas isn’t just a filler play to keep the defense honest between passes. Dallas looks to get big plays from its running game. Even more so right now than their passing game.

I have no idea how the Packers will do on the back end because they have been all over the map there, but I have a hard time seeing Prescott winning this game on the strength of his arm.

Though statistically looking as poor as last season, the Packers offense at Lambeau has reclaimed some of its swagger. I think the biggest injury for either team — both teams are injury-riddled — is Orlando Scandrick being out for the Cowboys. He is the guy who would have covered Randall Cobb. With him out, Cobb will go up against a backup.

If Aaron Rodgers knows that he can count on Cobb on third downs, I feel pretty good about the offense’s chance to get off to another good start at home and their ability to control the game once again. If Dallas falls behind, their young QB might panic a little. They are not a team built for playing from behind.

Regardless of everything else, I am probably not ready to admit that the Cowboys without Tony Romo have ascended past the Packers. Not yet.

I pick the Packers, but once again, I don’t pick them to cover the spread.

Packers 24, Cowboys 21

Monty (3-1, 1-2-1 ATS): For a change, I feel pretty confident in the Green Bay Packers this week. Unfortunately, usually when I feel pretty confident in the Packers, they end up getting raked and embarrassing us all.

Here’s the thing with this game. A lot of hype. I hate hype games. They typically fail to live up to it.

We know all about No. 1 run defense vs. No. 1 run offense. Strength on strength. We know all about the poise of rookie Dak Prescott.

I am not here to tell you the Cowboys are a bad team. They’re not. They play sound fundamental football. They run the ball and play defense. At this point in time, it’s like they’re a team from another decade.

Frankly, I feel like this year’s Cowboys team plays ball like the Packers SHOULD be playing ball. Run the football, control the clock, rely on your D.

Mike McCarthy would never allow that, though. That really is the X factor to me in any game the Packers play this season — will Buffoon muck up the works so badly with his buffoonery that the team simply cannot win? And there’s really no way to predict that.

Here’s what I will predict. You might even call them bold predictions.

The Packers’ run defense will contain Ezekiel Elliott. Eddie Lacy, who I expect to play, will outgain Zeke. The Cowboys, at some point, will be forced to pass almost exclusively and the Packers’ pass rush will get to Prescott.

The Cowboys haven’t asked Prescott to win them a game this year. They haven’t asked him to make dangerous throws. That will change on Sunday, simply because the Cowboys will have no other choice.

That’s the difference right there. The Packers offense will put up enough points at home. I like Lacy and Cobb to be the difference-makers on that side of the ball. Also, look for Jordy Nelson to bounce back after a terrible week 5.

The Cowboys aren’t a joke, but they’re just not quite there yet. This is a different game with Tony Romo under center. Fortunately for us, the Packers won’t be seeing Tony Romo on the field.

Packers 24, Cowboys 17

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Shawn

Shawn Neuser attended UWGB and lives and works in Green Bay. He enjoys long walks on the beach and being intimate with game film.

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12 Comments

  1. Phillthy October 16, 2016

    Unfortunately our run D will be exposed this game. Look for the Cowboys ground attack to gain upwards of 120 this game, with Dak finding himself quite a fee runs due to coverage.
    The Packers offense will have to rely on the pass today with Lacy nursing an injury. Though good to go I don’t see the Packers able to use the running game for more than change of pace to fool the defense which could elicite some good gains.

    The key to this game and what will lead us on into next week with a win is TURNOVERS. If we can keep the ball safe and our secondary can force at least 1 or 2 bad reads out of Dak the extra possessions will give is the W and a new bolster of confidence. If it’s a no turnover game I’m not 100% confident of our chances against a tough D and simple yet creative offense.

    Packers 27 Cowboys 19

  2. PF4L October 16, 2016

    Each win prolongs the agony for some of us. As previously stated, our cushy schedule isn’t going to help this team long term.

    Sound negative? To some maybe. , if you’re inclined to draw the conclusion that i don’t buy that this team is capable of getting to the Super Bowl this season, you’d be correct. As far as i’m concerned, if we can’t get to the Super Bowl, who gives a fuck.

  3. Zwoeger October 16, 2016

    Win or lose it does’nt matter the corpse wil stay till the end of his contract through 2018 and thus the elephant so we’ll have to endure almost three seasons more of that shit we’re served.
    Guess I’m getting used to it already so my ass stay relaxed.
    Like to see a clear win for a change though .

    1. PF4L October 16, 2016

      2018 is too long to wait. The more this team regresses, the more heat they are going to get. The more heat they get, the closer to the end we are of getting rid of TT and MM. TT and MM can’t deal with losing, because it means they get questioned and held accountable. That’s the only way this thing blows up. Just like a Doctor with a God complex, TT and MM don’t like being questioned or 2nd guessed, it pisses them off.

      If i thought we’d have a chance of going to the SB under these two, i wouldn’t go down this road. But i lost faith. I’m done with these 2 ass clowns.

      We keep beating weak teams by the skin of our teeth. All that does is prolong the current regime, it won’t get us to a Super Bowl.

      1. icebowl October 16, 2016

        Excellent observations young man …
        Sounds of first boos at Lambeau today – they’ll only get louder.
        As Aikman intimated – we “Packers fans have set the bar pretty high for this team” –
        They’ll be eating Minnesota’s dust this season – playoffs, playoffs… ?

  4. Howard October 16, 2016

    If the Pack wins the coin toss and does not take the ball I will be screaming. The offense needs to do what it has the last couple of home games start fast, then make the rookie QB try to beat you. The outcome will be different when playing against a rookie QB. The Cowboy offense will not hold up if playing from behind. The run defense needs to contain Elliot, put Hyde on Witten, take away Beasley (this may be the most difficult matchup) by bracketing him just like teams did last year against Cobb. That removes all of Prescott’s go to players when in need (third down conversions). Prescott will try to run but if Peppers is not abandoning the edge it won’t work. Prescott will take the sack over the turnover. Elliot can be prone to fumbles. The Cowboys have a fairly decent red zone offense hold them to field goals.

    The Pass offense should be able to find open zones in the middle of this D. Think lions first half. If the TEs do not make some 10 to 20 yard catches in this one they never will. The linebackers for the Cowboys are not good in coverage (drops) and the D line and linebackers can be overpowered. Lacy needs to stay in the game to be able to sell play action. No turnovers!

    The special teams need to control the kickoff returns from the Cowboys. There will be a punt return taken back for 6, or close to in this one. The Dallas punter consistently over kicks his coverage unlike the Schum on the Packers. If the Packer D can make Dallas punt from deep, there is a good chance Davis will have his first NFL TD. Finish Strong! GO PACK!!!

    1. PF4L October 16, 2016

      Elliot being prone to fumbles is quite a reach. He had 2 fumbles in 1 game. The other 4 games he hasn’t fumbled. He got off to a slow start, but has torn it up his last 3 games. This guy seems like the real deal. Power, with some speed, can also catch and gain yardage.

      What were looking for now, is how does he stack up against our run defense. This is the most interesting aspect of this game. We know about their O line, but their competition has been questionable. The same can be said for the Packers run defense and the backs that they’ve faced. That’s why this is a great test, for both teams.

  5. Deepsky October 16, 2016

    A quarterback without experience. For some reason Capers has a long list of losing to quarterbacks with only a handful of starts under their belt. Josh Freeman. Russell Wilson. Andrew Luck. Colin Kaepernick.

    1. icebowl October 16, 2016

      Add Dak to your list !

  6. PF4L October 16, 2016

    Remember when we talked about throwback uniforms, and ass sweat. See Mike Daniels.

  7. Killer October 16, 2016

    I predict Cowboys up 17 to 6 at the half…. (we employ a psychic at the White House)

  8. icebowl October 16, 2016

    That was one of the more pathetic excuses of a Packers game I’ve seen in a while….
    And it happened on almost first anniversary of total collapse to Broncos for first loss of season. Going 1-3 for next 4 weeks and sneak into post season. This year they won’t be as lucky.

    I can hear the excuses already from MM – injuries – no RB, secondary decimated. D got taken apart by a rook QB – secondary looked like Keystone Kops – Gunter even worse than Randall…..

    Time for QB1 to take full responsibility for this fiasco.

    Experience of 49 years of being a Packers fan tells me we could be looking at the end of the ARodg Era…