An outfit called BetLabs published some statistics on the topic of close games in June. It defines a close game as one decided by seven or fewer points.
The top three close game winning records for 2015 were achieved by Ron Rivera (Panthers) at 6-1, Bruce Arians (Cardinals) at 4-1, and Gary Kubiak (Broncos) at 9-3. One might argue from this that winning the close games is a great way to get you deep into the playoffs or even into the Super Bowl.
The coaches with the worst records in close games last year were: Tom Coughlin (Giants) in 29th place at 3-8; Jason Garrett (Cowboys) and Mike Mularkey (Titans) tied for 30th place at 2-6; and Mike Pettine (Browns) in last place at 1-5.
Of this latter group, Coughlin stepped down and Pettine was fired. Mularkey, however, went from interim to permanent coach at Tennessee, and Jason Garrett held onto his job at Dallas despite a 4-12 season record.
In 2015, Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy went 2-3 in close games, ranking 26th. Over his career in Green Bay, I’ve calculated that McCarthy has won 40 and lost 35, a winning ratio of 53 percent. For his NFL career, McCarthy has a winning percentage of just under 66 percent.
The players on the field undoubtedly make a huge difference in whether close games are won or lost, but head coaches also play prominent roles in these outcomes. It’s the head coach who decides which players will be on the field at the critical moments, what plays will be run, and – most importantly – who the go-to players will be in the game’s final moments.
For example, I took issue with the Packers choosing on the most critical play of the Vikings’ loss to isolate Davante Adams against lightning-quick Trae Waynes and to bunch, and ignore, the team’s better receivers on the opposite side of the field. Waynes jumped the route, resulting in a game-deciding interception.
Maybe McCarthy learned from that mistake. In the final minutes against New York, the coach decided to go to the receiver who had been winning his battles with the Giants’ secondary all game long. Randall Cobb came through, twice – preventing the Giants from regaining possession and marching toward a tying or winning score.
Typically, NFL teams average around seven games per year in which the winning team scores no more than seven points more than its opponent. All four Green Bay games to date fit the “close-game” definition. The Packers don’t have the offensive might at the moment to establish (or hold onto) big leads, and yet they are too solid a team to be soundly defeated.
Close game outcomes will probably define the Packers’ 2016 season. The results might also determine McCarthy’s future in Green Bay.