There have been inquiries about the Green Bay Packers’ first-round pick. Both the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns have called the Packers looking to trade up, according to a report.
What is the No. 27 pick worth? That’s the question.
Probably not as much as you might think, unfortunately.
If the Packers were to swap with either team — Denver owns No. 31 and Cleveland owns No. 32 — and get a third-round pick, it would be all systems go, right?
The best case for that happening is Denver. If the Broncos get antsy and want to drop their first third-round pick (No. 94) on the Packers in exchange for the Packers’ first fourth-rounder (No. 125), that would make sense for both clubs.
The pick value math works out pretty close to even. Denver would get 724 points of value to the Packers’ 727. Plus, Denver has a compensatory pick at the end of the third round (No. 98), so they wouldn’t be locked out of that round if they made a move.
The math is a bit more uneven with the Browns. In a simple scenario — two picks for two picks — a deal would favor one team. You would have to get into swapping at least three picks for any deal to get close to even.
Ted Thompson has traded out of round one once before. It was 2008, when the Packers sent their No. 30 pick to the New York Jets.
That deal also included the Packers’ No. 114 (fourth round) and No. 162 (fifth round) picks. In exchange, the Packers got the Jets’ No. 36 (second) and No. 102 (fourth).
Basically, the Packers picked up a third second-rounder and moved up in the fourth for dumping their first-round pick and one fifth-rounder.
That doesn’t seem like a very good deal and, in fact, if you look at a current draft trade value chart, it wasn’t. The Jets would have got 712.6 value points with their picks, compared with the Packers’ 632.
Value was more in the eye of the beholder back then, though.
In the end, the Packers got Jordy Nelson with the Jets’ second-rounder, so no one is complaining.
Where’s that draft value chart?
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm I’m assuming that one. I’m too lazy to go look.
If the draft is panning-out the way you desire, e.g. there are idiot teams drafting WR’s & QB’s high & there are still about 3 or 4 guys you like when pick 27 rolls around, then I say you surely trade-back & get pick 31 or 32.
several gurus I’ve read have us picking ILB Reggie Ragland out of Alabama. Another one has us choosing the nose tackle out of Baylor; can’t remember his name. But there will still be plenty of quality talent to choose from with the 27th pick.
TT will trade down for two lower picks. I hope I am wrong about this . . .
About TT screw him. Overrated gm. Does the bare minimum to help Aaron Rodgers and the Packers make a deep playoff run. He doesn’t really use free agency that much. He did this year by getting Cook.
Instead, TT would rather give MM and Capers rookies, inexperienced, or practice squad players to work with.
Wait till Rodgers leaves Ted would be out of a job.
I like MM but I don’t love him. He is a good coach and that’s my opinion by the way MMTTDCSUCK.
I want my picks back….. and I want David god damn Putney because I feel like it.
I think if you look at recent drafts the top 15 or so players in the first round have a better than 50 percent chance of being a Pro Bowler. After that the chance of being a Pro Bowler drops considerably. Trading back at 27 for extra picks is a good idea.