Shawn (11-5, 11-5 ATS) — Yes, the Green Bay Packers might be pretty happy to be in D.C. this weekend. The game-time temperature is supposed to be around 60. The likely temp around that same time in Green Bay is going to be around 15. On top of that, a win this weekend likely sends the Packers back to Arizona.
This would all be even better news if the Packers’ passing attack was its normal self. Unfortunately, as Marsellus Wallace once said, it is “pretty fucking far from alright.”
Regardless, weather is not expected to be a factor, either hurting or helping.
What you have here are two teams that are fairly enigmatic and that’s mostly because they are fairly mediocre. Neither team has shown a capacity for beating anyone better than they are, but both teams have faired well by beating teams looking forward to the draft.
If you look at these two teams statistically, they are pretty equal everywhere but pass defense. The Packers, believe it or not, rank sixth in the NFL there, while the Redskins rank 25th. Yes, the Redskins are even worse against the run, but the Packers aren’t good there either.
If momentum meant anything, then that should favor the Redskins. They’ve won four straight to close out their season and claim their division while the Packers have lost two in a row to lose theirs.
However, when you are talking about a veteran team that was in the NFC Championship game last season, I don’t believe that momentum means a lot. The Packers know what the playoffs are about. They’ve been here the last six seasons. They know the regular season doesn’t mean a lot at this point.
There is only one match-up that appears stark to me and that is Aaron Rodgers versus Kirk Cousins. Yeah, I know Cousins has played as well or better than Rodgers this year, but that was then and this is the playoffs.
After being fairly certain that the Packers would lose out after Arizona, I have changed my mind. The Packers and Rodgers have been saying all the right things this week, and you could say that I am drinking their Kool-Aid.
I also like this match-up because I think the Packers defense matches up well with the Redskins offense. I think they can get after Cousins and even turn him over. I am not as concerned in this game about Sam Shields not playing because the Redskins have a receiver by committee approach anyway.
The Packers will need their star players to perform. Julius Peppers and Clay Matthews need to be the difference makers for the Packers that the Redskins don’t have. Mike Daniels needs to make his presence known and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix needs to continue is playoff performance from last year.
Offensively, considering their opponent, I think the Packers offense can do enough to win this game. Aaron Rodgers has advocated taking more chances on offense. We will see. But whether it is by running the football or by Rodgers actually having a good game, I think the Packers should be the better offense on Sunday.
I may be delusional, but as a certain Hall of Fame finalist once said, “Now is the time.”
Packers 24, Redskins 20
Monty (9-7, 9-7 ATS) — As Shawn noted, this is a pretty even match-up. The line opened with Washington favored by one. It was then pushed to Green Bay by one and it’s gone back and forth since.
We’re going to call this a pick ’em game, since that’s essentially what it is.
With that in mind, I’ll just get this out of the way. The Green Bay Packers are going to win this game. Here’s why they’re going to win it.
First, we all know Washington is one of the hot teams in the NFC coming into the playoffs. Well, we see this every year. Hot team finishes regular season with a nice win streak, loses first playoff game. Season over.
Teams that are hot going into the playoffs actually have a lower win percentage than teams on the flip side. So, we’re throwing Washington’s “momentum” right out the window.
Second, we’re not even going to look at the on-field match-ups. These teams are pretty evenly matched, with the Packers having a somewhat better defense.
That doesn’t matter. Where the Packers have the real advantage — a difference-making advantage — is in playoff experience. From their coaching staff on down through their roster, these guys have been there, done that. Washington has not. That will be a factor.
Lastly, we’ve seen this all before. We’ve seen it in the regular season and we’ve seen it in playoffs past.
Pretty simply, these are the types of teams the Packers beat in both instances.
Look at who the Packers beat in the regular season. Nobody terribly impressive. Their wins came against teams similar to them and teams they should have beaten.
They got throttled by the upper echelon of the league.
Now look at the playoffs since the Super Bowl run. What have the Packers done? They’ve beaten teams they should have and teams similar to them. Then they go on (when they actually win a game) and lose to the upper echelon of the league.
Who have the Packers beaten in the playoffs since that Super Bowl run?
The Vikings (led by Joe Webb) in 2012 in a Wild Card game and the Cowboys in the divisional round last season. They should have beaten the Vikings and the Cowboys were very similar to them.
After each of those wins, the Packers went on to lose to upper echelon teams (49ers and Seahawks). And then, of course, there were the seasons where they just got beat right away by upper echelon teams.
You can probably see the foreshadowing here.
The Packers are going to go and beat the team they should beat this weekend and then they’re going to go get throttled by Arizona next weekend.
Just like usual.
But hey, we get to feel okay for one week.
Packers 23, Redskins 20
I guess i can state the obvious shit, about both the Packers and skins. Like the skins haven’t beaten anyone with a winning record, the skins defense is weak, the Packers have no offense or 0 line…blah blah blah blah.
So i’ll just skip the labor pains, and bring the baby. Packers by 10.
Bahktiari playing or not? Without Bahktiari, 23-21 Packers. Otherwise 24-21 Packers? The deadskins have an awful defense and an easy schedule
Holy crap, i thought the Packers look like shit much this year, take a gander at the Houston team….Hoyer?? hahahaha…
Right some asshole on here said we should trade Rodger’s for Watt. Houston got killed by Miami earlier when Campbell started coaching. They won the add south who we get to play next year. I can see a fast start again.
Afc sorry fucking auto correct
I don’t want to see Rodgers “taking chances”. Taking chances is NOT Rodgers game, he’s better than that.
Brian Hoyer took chances today, he threw 4 picks. Brett Favre took chances, 2 of those chances most likely cost his team a trip to the Super Bowl. He also took a lot of chances in other playoff games. In 2001 against the Rams, he took 6 chances, in 1 fucking game. Jay Cutler takes chances, those chances helped him win 1 playoff game in his career, and that was against a 7-9 team. Yes, chances = interceptions.
Taking chances in the NFL buys you nothing but a quick trip home.
Shawn, strawberry or grape kool-aid? Since I have said 60% chance of a win this week if D Bak plays and 55% if not, I guess that I am drinking the strawberry.
I think the presence of Jordan reed is being largely underrated here. I think the skin’s win this one unfortunately
looks like all four AFC SB candidates remaining have been in a SB vs the Pack before!
if the pack can get to Carolina next week, they’ve got a great shot to get to SB fifty – which would be their fiftieth reunion SB vs a previous SB opponent that is 75% likely to have lost to the Pack previously!
a great way to go into our 50th reunion SB!!
This team ain’t 2010s. Biggest reason why? #12 is not the same guy (mainly due to a dirth in elite skill position guys). Points per game and home record slightly favor the skins. Green Bay has been atrocious on 3rd down but they hold the advantage defensively as well as with experience. Since they’re evenly matched statistically, I would lean Green Bay if for nothing else than they are due for a win and they’re backs are against the wall.
However, if I was a begging man, I would avoid picking this game altogether. Whichever team holds onto the ball better will emerge victorious.
I whole-heartedly disagree with you pf4l. I was just thinking about this very subject this week. Yes, Favre took chances. And he took chances because he wanted to win so badly. I think that Rodgers is so afraid of making a mistake like an interception, that he chokes. And he’s been choking a lot lately. Favre was never afraid of anything or anyone. Rodgers is clearly afraid of failure. Don’t get me wrong I love the guy, now. But I’ve always felt that someday Rodgers would come to a place where he’s at right now, a crossroads, where he’s going to have to take some chances. No risk, no reward. His mistakes are from fear. Not from trying to win the game and throwing risky passes. Not from moving outside the pocket to maybe get a quick throw downfield, not from rushing to gain a 1st down, but from plain old lack of self confidence. When Rodgers threw the Hail Mary and was successful, he was as giddy as a school boy. Ask him if it was worth the chance? It’s always worth it.
The hail mary is a desperation pass. It wasn’t about taking a chance, it was the only option. I’ll say it again, taking chances isn’t
Rodgers game. Favre took chances, because that was his game. Favre said himself, he threw too many risky passes, he also said he didn’t put in the study time and learn defenses, until they drafted Rodgers and he felt like he had to get better.
I’m so pissed off that you would even write this BS pf4l, and I think you did it intentionally. Don’t take chances? This is the NFL. You have to take chances. Mind you I’m not saying that any player should engage in making a habit of it,especially if it’s unwarranted, but I’m saying that imo, if you want to be great at anything in this life, you must be willing to take chances. Rodgers is good enough that when he takes a chance, 9 X out of 10, he’s going to be successful, as was Favre. When your team is playing like shit, and you’re the star, you have to step up and show them some confidence. Rodgers needs to go for it. Right now. Or we are done. It’s up to him to lead this team. Great QBS make their players great. I’ve always believed that. GOPACKGO!
Gee, Rodgers has had a pretty good career doing things the way he’s done them through the years. But yea, he should change how he plays now. that’s a good idea. So you’re saying that Rodgers should be more like Favre, and less like himself? Himself has been pretty Goddamn good i’m thinking.
Now….Go make me a sammich.
Oh, and my prediction, we could kill this team if Rodgers steps up and shows confidence by taking a few chances. If that happens, Packers by 20.
Really, almost any aggressive move Rodgers takes with this current team would be chancy. Because they have sucked so badly. It’s now or never.
Great article by Bob and the Journal on the freak GM running the show….if it takes a one and done for Howdy Doody (Mark Murphy) to grow sme freckled balls and fire that fruitcake, I’m in. It will give AR a legit shot at a few more SB’s before he gets killed on the field. Since Favre days this jerk off has been riding the coat tails of two HOF qb’s and spending most of his in his room under the covers with who knows what. He needs to fucking go and quick while there’s still some time….wasted enough already! And please, no in the playoffs every year shit. Without AR, and they’re basically without him now, this team wins 4-5 games tops.
HAHA, AS USUAL. you try to put words in my mouth. You know exactly what I said and what I meant. I think I made it clear so I’m not going to reiterate. If you cant read English, then I suggest you “go back to school bucko” :)
That’s telling him !
I agree with you – it all hinges on #12 ~!
We can count on one thing – if GB loses to the Foreskins – at least this team can’t match the shit storm that went down in Cinncy last night….
GB wins it 13-10
YOU LIKE THAT !!
Read that article bobby. Great article. I really wish the packers would have kept John Schneider. I really believe he helped build this team to the team it was since he left but without his influence, personnel decisions have suffered greatly. Make no mistake, Schneider has made some bad picks, but no GM is perfect and every one will make mistakes. Since he became GM in 2010, he has drafted Russel okung, earl thomas, kam chancellor, kj wright, Richard sherman, Bruce irvin, Russel wilson, Bobby wagner, Jordan hill, and Tyler lockett. Let that settle in a bit. A bunch of all pros and solid contributors, and many already signed to second contracts. Oh, and he traded for some running back that goes by the nickname “beast mode.” Anyone know that guy?
Rodgers knows that they have to get more aggressive and has said as much also stating that the Packers “need to let it fly.” Idk, but that sounds like chancy behavior to me. LOL! He knows what it takes to win. Can he turn this team around starting today? We shall have our answer soon enough.
Rodgers is rarely at his best in the playoffs, and I don’t expect that to change this year with the frustrated, self-defeating attitude he’s had on display most of this season. But with that said, go pack go!
Favre relied on his natural ability to read any situation and get the job done. He has the records to prove it. Of course, he didn’t always succeed. He’s human. Not a God. Many Packer fans forgot that and placed him high on a pedestal. Rodgers is no different. He’s human. He’s going to make mistakes. That’s a given. The important thing is how a QB responds to set backs. Favre went out guns blazing no matter what. I’d like to see a little of that today in Rodgers. I have watched him do so in the past, let’s have the confident, cocky, a bit risky, Rodgers again today. That all I’m saying.
This game is simple. It is all about tackling, blocking and turnovers. If Rodgers and the Packers can stop the turnovers in the red zone, and for easy TDs for the opponent it will be a big improvement. It is hard enough to win regular season games with turnovers. In the playoffs turnovers result in loses at an even higher rate than during those meaningless regular season games. It is a new season. Not sure that taking chances is the best way to go, however I would agree with being unpredictable on the offense, and that does not mean passing the ball 50 times in the game, or running 13 times in the first series.
No one mentions the special teams in this game. The redskins usually use a rookie to return punts, I wonder if that will change with the potential nerves. If it doesn’t change there is a chance for the Pack to get a turnover. In addition the redskin punter has a strong leg, on long distance punts he tends to over kick his coverage. The Pack may get a long return from Hyde. Janis would also look good running down the field all alone.
Keep Rodgers upright, No redskin YACs, Packer safeties need to have big games in coverage, and as Sitton said Lacy and Starks need 30 carries. Start Fast, and Finish Strong! GO PACK!!!
Of course, there has to be outstanding game play, that’s a given. But we are not coaches. Sorry pf4l aka “wiseguy” but you don’t know it all. I like how a lot of people write lengthy comments about how to play football lol. I think the Packers got that down for the most part. To me it’s the intangibles that win games and make champions. Confidence is everything. They aren’t going anywhere without it. I know, I know, you dudes like to break it down. But I’ll leave that up to the pundits.
A few of you talked about the root cause. Draft and develop only works if you have a strong draft. Your team talent pool diminishes quickly in the NFL if you don’t get enough impact players. I am not convinced that our recent draft picks are as good as we need. The most impactful talent drain for the Pack has been from folks who never line up for a single snap. The front office support staff, the assistants to Ted, have far outperformed him.