The one thing we will agree with Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy about is that it’s a new season. With the playoffs beginning, the previous 16 games don’t matter.
All that matters is if you’re in or out.
That’s really the biggest positive the Green Bay Packers have going for them after limping to the finish line.
After starting 6-0, the Packers finished the season 4-6. They were 3-3 in the final six games.
Nobody is picking the Packers to do anything in the playoffs. At least, no one who’s seen them play recently, but that’s thing.
It isn’t about being hot coming into the playoffs, despite what every analyst would have you believe. It’s about getting hot (or staying hot) once you’re there.
Seven times since 2003, teams that were 3-3 or 2-4 in their final six regular season games made the Super Bowl. Five of them won the game. One of those was the 2010 Packers.
Here’s the list.
The five winners in there are Indianapolis, the Giants, Green Bay, the Giants and Baltimore.
So in a 12-season sample size, more than half of those seasons ended with a team that limped into the playoffs playing in the Super Bowl. And in nearly half of those 12 seasons, the Super Bowl winner was a team that wasn’t very good down the stretch.
The Big Lead came up with a formula to determine how teams that were “hot” coming into the playoffs fared versus how teams who were “cold” fared.
The cold teams actually fared better overall.
COLD TEAMS (24 total): 26-21 in the playoffs, 30-17 ATS, 5 Super Bowl Appearances, 3 Titles
HOT TEAMS (23 total): 22-21 in the playoffs, 16-26-1 ATS, 3 Super Bowl Appearances, 2 Titles
Do this year’s Green Bay Packers have a shot? They certainly don’t pass the eye test, but history seems to suggest they do.