Shawn (7-0, 6-1 ATS) — A small part of the reason I picked the Denver Broncos last week was because I knew I’d take the Green Bay Packers this week and I had a hard time seeing the Packers winning both games. That is pretty illogical, but I’m not above doing the right thing for the wrong reason.
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers have been pretty fricking good after a loss lately. Yeah, I know a lot of those wins have come at home or against mediocre teams, but I do think this Carolina Panthers team is similar to the undefeated Houston Texans team that the Packers beat up on in 2012. Both teams are good, but not as good as their records suggest.
The Carolina defense is good, but it lacks the secondary and the pass rush of the Broncos. With Charles Johnson on IR, the Panthers’ best pass rusher is the geriatric Jared Allen. Maybe the Panthers will follow the example of the last three defenses the Packers have faced and blitz a lot, but that would be out of character for this defense.
I don’t expect the Packers offense to do what it did to the Texans. The Packers aren’t that team anymore. But I do expect Aaron Rodgers to face less pressure and have a better game than he’s had in about a month. It may also help if Ty Montgomery can get back on the field. He might provide more of an immediate spark than having Davante Adams back did. Built like Randall Cobb with a little more muscle, Montgomery has the quickness and physicality that makes him a more difficult cover for the bump-and-run. Having Montgomery on the field is like giving the defense two Cobbs to worry about instead of one.
Cam Newton is a talented and dangerous quarterback with a stronger arm than Philip Rivers or Peyton Manning. However, he isn’t Rivers or Manning. The strengths that those guys brought to the table that helped them pulverize the Packers’ pass defense are not possessed in near equal measure by Newton. On top of that, Newton doesn’t have the receivers that those guys have.
Defensively, the Packers are built to stop Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick, and thus, they are also built to stop Cam Newton. Newton and Jonathan Stewart will get some yards on the ground against a rush defense that has been Jekyll and Hyde for the Packers lately, but I don’t think they can dominate the game on the ground.
In short, I think the Packers match up well against the Panthers. The fact that they demolished them at Lambeau last year was no fluke. This Panthers team is better and this Packers team is likely worse, but I just think that makes the game closer. Plus, playing in Carolina is no big burden. The weather should be nice, and there will be some Packers fans in the stands.
It will be no miraculous turnaround for the Packers, but they’ll play incrementally better on both sides of the ball and escape with a one-score win.
Packers 20, Panthers 14
Monty (6-1, 5-2 ATS) — For the second week in a row, the Green Bay Packers go on the road to face an undefeated team and for the second week in a row, they’re favored. This time, just like last time, the Packers are getting 2.5-3 points.
And you know how that worked out last week.
It’s a new week, though. That Denver Broncos team is more talented than I think anybody thought. This Carolina Panthers team is probably about as talented as everyone thinks, which is about three points less talented than the Green Bay Packers.
Yes, the Panthers are undefeated. Yes, they have a solid defense (10th in total defense and scoring defense). Yes, they have a very good quarterback who is winning with virtually no offensive supporting cast.
This team just doesn’t pass the eye test, though.
Their most impressive win was at Seattle (27-23) and we know the Seahawks aren’t what they were as recently as last season. Their most dominant win was a 37-23 victory at Tampa Bay, a young team that isn’t very good yet.
It took some major bumbling around by Andy Luck for the Panthers to escape Indianapolis with a three-point win over a bad Colts team last week.
In short, there’s nothing really impressive about this Panthers team, other than their record.
Shawn mentioned it earlier and I’ve been thinking about it all week — this game reminds me of the Houston game in 2012.
The Packers had their backs against the wall, were being roundly criticized after coming off a terrible performance and went and throttled the undefeated Texans. In hindsight, we found that that Texans team was pretty good, but not great.
It certainly feels like that’s what this Carolina team is.
It also feels like a bounce-back game for Aaron Rodgers, providing he, you know, will actually throw the ball to someone. Rodgers has taken a beating in the court of public opinion this week and deservedly so. To think that he isn’t aware of that would be naive.
He’s probably made a list of everyone who’s said something negative about him and will one day go burn that person’s house down.
In the meantime, however, he’ll just have to settle for beating on Carolina.
This Packers team has all kinds of issues right now, but the Panthers are an opponent that will make them look at least somewhat competent on both sides of the football. At least for one week.
Packers 24, Panthers 20
The Denver Broncos, like the NO Saints, always look better at home than overall, because of the nature of their home venues, and the fact that visiting teams that fail to do due diligence in venue-specific preparation and practice, usually lose in these venues, even tho they are evenly matched otherwise.
expect the pack to play much better in the oxygen rich air of Charlotte, NC than they did last week.
also, the decimation of starters due to injury is slowly being alleviated.
I don’t want to offer a prediction on this game, because as a rabid fan of GB, i only offer optimistic predictions in slam dunk games, e.g., the SD game. if a game looks like it could be close, or a toss up, i don’t want to upset my fellow fans by utterances that sow any seed of doubt. i want to keep “doubting Thomas” thoughts at bay, in order to enjoy the game and cheer for the green and gold most enthusiastically.
That said, it should be noted that this game will not be a slam dunk for the pack because Cam Newton is improved from last year as a passer and smart, quick read of the options on the field.
also, it is starting to look like Cam has a career year going on, and i expect NC to be the main rival to be the SB entry from the NFC this season.
it is starting to look like the two wildcards will come from the South and the North, or possibly both WC will come from the south. the east and west divisions have only one leader, the rest of their teams are beating each other up with no clear WC candidate emerging yet, while the N and S have MN, Atlanta, and NO as separating from the rest of their divisions, as both divisions have very weak teams remaining [Chicago and Detroit in the N, TB in the S]
Wishful thinking. Everyone is assuming some great bounce-back performance is guaranteed? This is an I diotic point spread, just like it was last week when GB was favored on the road against a good defense. Best case scenario Packers have a 50/50 chance to win. Vegas screws the Pack once again by making them road faves in a game that should be a pick em and ends up motivating a disrespected undefeated home team. 22-21 Panthers
I don’t get this praise that get’s heaped upon Cam Newton. His best attribute is he can run. Not unlike KP and RG3, both of whom currently occupy a bench. KP made his name by running, and with a strong defense, just like Cam Newton. The problem is, the #’s don’t lie. Cam is having his worst season as a pro, but because they are 7-0, he gets imo, undeserved accolades. But when reality rears it’s head, Cam is currently the 25th rated QB with stats more suitable of a career back-up.
The Panthers are 7-0 and their defense is 6th in scoring defense and lead’s the lead in rushing offense. while they sit at 29th in passing offense.
The talking heads that are singing Cam’s praise, are the same talking heads that said KP, RG3, and Cam, were the prototypes of the future NFL QB a few years back. Well, two down, one to go.
aughhh….KP=CK
we knew who you meant.
Boy, don’t you look stupid now? Cam and his group of nobodies dominated A-Rod and football royalty. Funny thing about you is that you poo poo mobile QBs, when Rodgers would be half the QB he has been, if he wasn’t mobile.
Check the scoreboard and the record … suck on that! Watch me as I sing Cam’s praise. Pardon me as I stroke our 8-0 record.
Agree on all arguments that Newton is Kaepernick. Unfortunately the main stories Kaepernick will tell his grandkids from his glory days involve running roughshod over a Dom Capers defense
Shawn, you’re normally spot-on, but this week I disagree with you. Cam Newton is no slouch. Expect to see our middle linebacker situation exploited again. Carolina’s defense is probably good enough to keep Rodgers under pressure and exploit our very out-of-sync offense. I hate to say it, but I think Carolina wins, 24-21.
Monty…the Packers are not getting points. As the favorite they are giving or “laying” 2.5 to 3 points.
The Packers will lose today by 2 scores. The defensive weaknesses will become more apparent. These start with TT’s refusal to fix
ILB or fire Dom Capers. The wrong lesson was
drawn from the loss in Seattle. It went something
like this: special teams lost the game, that could
be fixed by moving McCarthy off of play-calling
to an overall role. But the DEFENSE lost the game
in Seattle and Clements is terrible at play calling.
This is not the unstoppable Packer offense of
recent years. They lose today 30-20, and go on
the road for the playoffs.
The Panthers will score first and my worry will turn to a pain in my chest. The Packer offense will have about 3 3 and outs in a row and I will begin to scream at the TV to get Rodgers to take the short routes after he tries to extend plays to fully covered receivers. About half time I’ll begin to curse McCarthy and Capers as Newton will have had about 80 yards rushing and the Packers are two scores behind. At the beginning of the second half, a ray of hope will shine as Rodgers and company finally score a touchdown. Hope will be dashed after Newton runs for another touchdown. The rest of the week will be depression as I realize the Packers have zero hope of the Super Bowl again this year and realization that the Packers are just not that good anymore and the window has closed.
That’s my prediction for the game.
Panthers 21 Packers 13
D lost the Seattle game? The D threw two picks and couldn’t move the fucking ball in the second half? Was the D (savior Clements) calling plays?—oh wait McCarthy was! Was the D playing special teams?! None of that matters today I know…
This all starts at the top… The refusal to participate in free agency keeps us in the playoffs—- and away from the SB.
27-21 Carolina
Right now its worse than deepky predicted. No Ray of hope.
Rodgers needs to show some fire and be a leader when things aren’t going our way. Not impressed with him as of late.
They suck.
Kaepernewton for League MVP
Right now, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Charlotte. #1 in the NFC.