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Predictions: Week 2 – Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Marshawn Lynch

Shawn  (1-0) — This might be a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game and the two teams overwhelmingly picked to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this year, but frankly, both of the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are a shadow of last season’s version of themselves, right now.

Seattle has been playing their own version of musical chairs along their offensive line, with Max Unger and James Carpenter gone. No one is happier about that development than Mike Daniels, who got bitched by Carpenter in Seattle in week 1 last season. The Seahawks still have Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, but the play of both is directly affected by the performance of the offensive line. The Packers did well to have Wilson on the run in their last meeting and that was against a stronger O-line than they’ll be facing on Sunday night.

Lynch himself might be a bad matchup for a defense that struggles to tackle, but if his line can’t open holes for him, he might not be as big a threat as you’d think.

On defense, the Seahawks are in even worse shape due to missing three players out of last season’s defensive backfield, including starters Walter Thurmond and the beast Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks have also been missing their nickel back Jeremy Lane and without him, they have at times taken the severe step of having Richard Sherman cover the slot. With the Packers’ best receiver, Randall Cobb, lining up in the slot, we will see whether Sherman gets the call and if so, who covers Davante Adams. Adams could end up being a key player for the Packers.

All that being said, it is a real toss up regarding which team is in worse shape right now. The Packers are not only missing their best receiver in Jordy Nelson, but their next best receiver in Cobb is playing injured. The Packers are also missing right tackle Bryan Bulaga, which is an especially painful blow with the Seahawks coming to town. The Seahawks are one of the few teams with a pass rusher coming off the right side who is capable of both the speed and bull rush. The Packers have typically handled Cliff Avril, even going back to his days in Detroit, but a matchup against Don Barclay might reverse his fortunes.

On defense, the Packers are missing two of the guys who Mike Daniels credited for turning the defense around in the second half last season — Letroy Guion and Sam Barrington. There isn’t necessarily a huge drop off between Barrington and Nate Palmer, but Barrington was the more physical player, which again makes a particular difference this week. The Packers did not bring the physicality they needed to on defense last week. Losing Sam Barrington is not going to make that hurdle any easier to clear.

What concerns me most about this game for the Packers is that I am not confident that they are physical enough to beat the Seattle Seahawks. On top of that, I am concerned that this game means a little more to the Seahawks than it does the Packers. Yeah, the Packers want to end their losing streak against the Seahawks, especially after what happened during their last meeting and the Packers want to win at home. They haven’t lost there since the 2013 playoffs.

However, I don’t think either of those factors are more urgent than the fact that the Seahawks are 0-1 and the Packers are 1-0. The Seahawks are in an awfully good division to be starting the year 0-2. Oh, they have the confidence that they could come back from that, but still, not falling to 0-2 is a strong motivator.

So, considering that and considering everyone for the Packers who is not playing or is playing injured, I think this is a pick ’em game at best for the Packers.

However, I am going to pick the Packers for two reasons. It is in Green Bay, which has the double effect of the Packers usually playing better while the Seahawks are clearly not as good on the road. And secondly, I love what I saw out of Aaron Rodgers last week. He made great decisions and was incredibly accurate with the football. Despite the Packers’ issues at receiver, I think Rodgers can finally have a good game against the Seahawks.

Tough game, but I am going with Rodgers at Lambeau.

Packers 24, Seahawks 20

Seattle Seahawks fans lose

Andrew (1-0) — Damn, Shawn. In my opinion that might be the finest prediction you’ve written to date.

Not only that, I was prepared to pick Seattle to win, so your positive attitude about all of this has muddied the prediction waters I currently find myself doing the back float in. Did the Bob McGinn scouting report on Seattle get to you and fill you with optimism? Because personally I am still terrified of this Seahawks team.

I just can’t envision the Packers slowing down the Seattle offense, despite the fact that their offensive line is in complete shambles. Who’s going to be a dominant force to disrupt the running game either on the defensive line or in the middle of the field? It’s almost going to have to be Clay Matthews and Mike Daniels, but it sure would be nice if someone else steps up. Will those two guys playing out of their minds make up for the deficiencies the Packers clearly have in defending the running game and tackling?

Who’s going to stop Jimmy Graham? This one baffles me. I have no clue. If the Packers think they’re going to trot Sean Richardson out there against him then old Jimmy just might be sitting on a career game.

The Packers’ pass rush is not that of the St. Louis Rams. I don’t care who is playing offensive line. The Packers defense is not capable of sacking a quarterback like Russell Wilson a half dozen times or more. And after being harassed like he was all day in week 1, Seattle still put up 30+ points, although they did have a defensive and special teams TD.

With their offensive production on the road against a far superior defense in St. Louis when they were clearly not firing on all cylinders, I have a difficult time believing that Seattle won’t put up at least 30 on Green Bay’s impotent-looking bunch.

The bottom line is, even without Kam Chancellor, even without some of their other pieces in place, I see the Seattle defense having a better chance of stopping the Packers offense than I see the Packers being able to stop the Seahawks. Although the Packers are going to get their points at home, I expect the Seahawks to come with a heavy dose of read option, Russell Wilson rolling out and Jimmy Graham making the Packers pay in the secondary all day long.

The over is the play here folks. The game itself could go either way, but I just don’t see the Packers exorcising their demons just yet. I still don’t believe they’re the better team and they are certainly not the tougher more physical team.

Whoever loses this game is in real danger of taking a momentous step backwards as far as team psyche. If the Packers can send the Seahawks to 0-2, would the finger-pointing begin and the dissension in the ranks take over in the Pacific Northwest? It very well could.

But the flip side of that coin here is it very well could be the Packers who have to look themselves in the mirror should they fall at home, which I believe they will.

Here’s to me being wrong. Go Pack Go!

Seahawks 37, Packers 34

seahawks-fan

Monty (1-0) — There are a lot of factors to consider here and we’re going to get to those momentarily, but first of all, I’d like to say this.

Fuck the Seattle Seahawks and fuck their shitty fans. I thought no one could rival Minnesota Vikings fans in terms of ignorance and bluster — because you know, talking loudly totally makes up for the fact that you don’t have anything intelligent to say — but these assclowns are starting to get real close.

Also, this…

[fb_embed_post href=”https://www.facebook.com/montgomerymcmahon/posts/1023174017698835?pnref=story/” width=”480″/]

Anyway, let’s move on to stuff that’s actually debatable.

We all know what’s on the line here. The Packers desperately want to change the narrative and get the SeaMonkey off their back. The SeaMonkeys don’t want to start 0-2.

And there’s really no way to say how those intangible factors are going to play into this game, so let’s look at the tangible ones, i.e. what’s different from last season, when the Packers lost twice to the Seahags.

The list is actually extensive.

1. Seattle’s offensive line has gone from strength to weakness. They’ve lost two of their top linemen — James Carpenter via free agency and Max Unger via trade. Drew Nowak has replaced Unger at center and Justin Britt has moved from right tackle to replace Carpenter at left guard. That has brought in Garry Gilliam at right tackle. Unger was a two-time Pro Bowler. Nowak is a former undrafted free agent who spent 2014 on Seattle’s practice squad. Carpenter was a former first-round pick who started 38 games for Seattle. Gilliam was an undrafted free agent signed by the Seahawks in 2014. You’ll remember Gilliam as the guy who caught Jon Ryan’s touchdown pass in the NFC Championship game. Despite that highlight, both Gilliam and Nowak are obviously huge downgrades for Seattle’s offensive line.

Packers: +2

2. Part of the reason the Seattle offensive line was downgraded is because of tight end Jimmy Graham. The Shithawks included Unger in the package they sent to New Orleans to acquire Graham, which is a huge upgrade for the Seattle offense. Graham had 85 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2014 with the Saints. Seattle hasn’t had that type of production at tight end since Pete Carroll has been their coach. Historically, the Packers have had a tough time covering big, fast, athletic tight ends like Graham. That said, they faced him last year and held him to five catches for 59 yards and a touchdown. Against Jimmy Graham, we would call that a success or at least a draw. The guy is a weapon though and the Packers will have to be mindful of him.

Seattle: +1

3. The Seattle secondary isn’t anything close to what it was. This has been the strength of the team in recent seasons. So much so, that they’ve given themselves a stupid nickname. Well, it’s currently a shell of its former self. Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond have left via free agency. Jeremy Lane is on injured reserve. Kam Chancellor is holding out. That leaves Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, both of whom are excellent players, and two guys who are crap. Those two guys are Cary Williams and Dion Bailey. Williams was released by the Eagles this offseason and if you’re getting released by the Eagles, you’re a pretty piss poor cornerback. Ironically, Philly is the team that signed Maxwell, so the Seachickens basically took a net loss to the Eagles on that one. Bailey was a 2014 undrafted free agent signing. So, Legion of Boom? How about Legion of Go Fuck Yourself?

Packers: +2

4. It wouldn’t be football season if members of the Green Bay Packers weren’t dropping like flies. Jordy Nelson, gone. Sam Barrington, gone. Bryan Bulaga, out this week. Randall Cobb, playing at less than 100 percent. Letroy Guion, suspended. That’s a lot to overcome right there, but let’s break it down because it’s not as bad as it looks. We’ll still take the receiving corps of Cobb, Davante Adams and James Jones over that half-whole Seattle secondary. Don Barclay, who has 18 career starts, will be filling in at right tackle for Bulaga. It’s not as if the Packers are sending Allen Barbre out there to be eaten alive. The biggest concern is how Nate Palmer will fill in for Barrington at inside linebacker. We expect a drop off, but not a huge one. The biggest loss, in our eyes, is the absence of Guion. Mike Pennel and, to a greater extent, Mike Daniels need to step it up this week.

Seattle: +2

5. See what I’ve done here? I’ve saved the best for last. His name is Aaron Rodgers. You’ll probably recall that the league MVP was out there playing on one leg the last time he faced the Seafucks. And he played like garbage — 19-of-34, 178 yards, one TD and two picks. You can say what you want about why the Packers lost the NFC Championship game, but the real reason they lost it is because their best player had his worst game of the season. We’re betting that won’t happen this time, mostly because Rodgers is healthy and mobile. THAT is the biggest difference here for either team.

Packers: +3

Packers: 7, Seadicks: 3

Seattle is going to put up some points. The Packers defense just isn’t that good, again. They do have a number of clear advantages, however.

Packers 31, Seahawks 24

Tags:
Shawn

Shawn Neuser attended UWGB and lives and works in Green Bay. He enjoys long walks on the beach and being intimate with game film.

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23 Comments

  1. Andy September 19, 2015

    I think Wilson is going to give us fits picking up 3rd downs with his feet, and our d-line is so poor it really isn’t going to challenge that crappy seahawks O-line. Until our guys can prove that they can punch in some scores in the red zone I can’t pick them. Thats what really screwed us last time, setteling for field goals, you cant let the seahawks hang around

    1. Ted Hawthorne September 19, 2015

      So it WOULD have helped to have James Jones
      inside the 5 last January! Welcome to the club.

  2. Zwoeger September 19, 2015

    Capers: Everybody knows the running game against us is going like a warm knife through butter.
    So they think I’m going to defend that better so they are gonna play Graham so I’m going to defend that.
    And then Wilson and Lynch are going to go and go and go and Capers as per usual won’t adjust.
    Something like that. Anyway that won’t adjust to what ever I’m sure.

  3. Andrew Chitko September 19, 2015

    Agree on Wilson giving us fits with his feet.

  4. Church Lady September 19, 2015

    Even without Kam, I don’t see how we are a better team…yeah, we have the best player, but he can’t play defense as well..
    SeaChickens 34
    Packers 28

  5. Richard September 19, 2015

    Lambeau > CenturyLinc and Steratore > Easley

    The football gods will take care of this

    Packers 34-28

  6. Phatgzus September 19, 2015

    Andrew,Raji was our highest rated defensive lineman in week 1-the Bears didn’t run up the middle for shit. Almost all of Forte’s yards came by escaping the contain of the OLBs, namely Neal. As good as Lynch is (and he’s not bad at bouncing it to the outside) he is nowhere near as good at bouncing it outside the tackles as Forte, since that is his forte.
    TEs have been a problem in the past, but I think last year’s D was better vs. TEs than it had been in years; I believe a big part of that was HHCD, CMIII, and Peppers. I think Palmer may have some potential as well.
    The Packers sacked Wilson 5 times in the NFCCG last year. They may not have as good of a D-line as St. Louis (who does? except perhaps the Bills and Jets), and though they’ll be without Guion for another 2 games, they have Raji (.5 sacks in Week 1) and Jones (say what you will about him, he has been effective vs. mobile QBs) for this game. They also have better LBs (namely CMIII and Peppers) than the Rams.
    The Seahawks put up 343 yards of total offense vs. the Rams, that’s okay, nothing special. Same applies for the 20 points they put up on offense.
    The Packers were dominant at home last year, and though I’m sure I’m jinxing it, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown a pick at home since December 2, 2012. If Rodgers keeps his historic streak going and Special Teams show up to play again this week, it’s going to be very tough for Seattle to win this game.

    1. PF4L September 20, 2015

      Raji did had a good game, to his past standard. He had a quick 1st step burst, got off some blocks, and even had a 1/2 sack, his 1st sack since 2011. The table is set for him to have an impact this game also going against Drew Nowak, ironically a Green Bay native.

  7. Skinny September 19, 2015

    Where is Sarah?

    1. ay hombre September 19, 2015

      Learning to spell the starting running back’s last name.

      1. PF4L September 20, 2015

        ay hombre = Grammar cop.

  8. Howard September 20, 2015

    Barrington is a big loss. Except for the wheel route he left Lynch wide open on, Barrington had a good game in the NFCC. Not sure who is going to take his place in the run game. With that said Perry needs more snaps over Neal. Neal is a liability in run D and consistently is a half a step late in pass rush.

    Graham may be an upgrade in Seattle’s pass game but is not nearly as good as Bennett (bears) is in run blocking. The Rams last week let Graham have free release, may help to disrupt his routes. There is always Wilson and Lynch to deal with, however the rookie WR Lockett should be a real concern. I would believe Seattle will try to use him somewhat like they did Harvin last year week 1. We know how that went. Will the D be ready? Also Lockett will be a real threat on returns, better not be any problems with hang time, Masthay.

    If Barclay and whom ever assists him in pass protection hold up Rodgers should have a very good day. It would be good to see Rodgers throw to the TEs but they may be busy helping Barclay. Go Eddie!

    The Pack finished strong against the bears last week. The team will need to do the same this week. Win the fourth quarter and win the game. Finish Strong! GO PACK!

  9. PF4L September 20, 2015

    This is the game Packer fans have been waiting for. This game is set in the Packers favor. If they don’t win this one, i don’t know what to say.
    1) The game is at home
    2) Rodgers is healthy
    3) Packers should have the edge on the defensive line of scrimmage against Seattle’s 0-line.
    4) We don’t have Brandon Bostick.
    5) Julius Peppers might not yell “get down!!” after a pick.
    6) Clay might be in the game the entire 4th quarter (i’m hoping).
    7) A victory means getting the monkey off their back finally beating an NFC West team.
    8) McCarthy might have more awareness of his team, like who’s in the game and who is not. Can you imagine Kevin Greene seeing Clay resting on the sideline at the end of a NFCCG, watching it slip away?

    Monty is wrong that the real reason the Packers lost the NFCCG was because of Rodgers poor play. The guy has an MVP season and plays injured, basically on one leg. If i remember correctly Rodgers didn’t tell Clay to go stand on the sideline. Rodgers didnt tell M. Burnett to get down. Rodgers didn’t tell B. Bostick to field an on-side kick. Rodgers didn’t tell Sam Barrington to be a liability covering Marshawn Lynch in pass coverage. Rodgers didn’t tell Ha Ha to look lost covering a 2pt conversion.

    Yea Monty, it’s Rodgers fault, because apparently in your mind, Rodgers has to play to a higher level, even when injured, just to cover up all the fuck ups of everyone else. Do you even believe half the stupid bs you write?

    I don’t have a prediction. But in the former words of a real leader on the defensive side of the ball.

    IT’S TIME!!!

  10. ay hombre September 20, 2015

    PF4L…People write opinions. You telling someone their opinion is wrong elevates your level of douche-baggery every time you open your mouth.

    He’s wrong? Get over your arrogant self. I’ll now await the three page response to this post.

    1. PF4L September 20, 2015

      I wrote my opinion. So are you telling me my opinion of telling someone they are wrong, makes me a douche? Awe, Sorry i hurt your feelings.

      I didn’t just tell someone they were wrong, i explained why.

      When you’re done gobbling on Montys nutsack, and have something intelligent to add about this game like the rest of us, let us know.

    2. PF4L September 20, 2015

      Write something constructive, instead of calling people grade school names.

      I have an idea…..If you agree with Monty on THAT point and disagree with me. Write something of substance that counters my contention.

      I don’t mean countering with a post like, calling me a fag or something.

      Thank you for understanding.

      1. shawn September 20, 2015

        The Packers’ offensive production in the 2nd half was all of two FGs. Enough said.

        That was the total difference between victory tonight and the NFCCG. Tonight, A-Rodge and the offense answered the bell in the 4th quarter. That is what an MVP QB and a top offense is supposed to do.

        1. PF4L September 21, 2015

          I think it’s incredibly naive to convey the difference was
          Rodgers, between tonight’s game and the NFCCG. Acting like the epic collapse on special teams and defense didn’t happen. The NFCCG wasn’t Rodgers fault, the Pack was up by 12 with 3 minutes to play. Blame Rodgers for not answering the bell in the NFCCG if you want, i see it different. The game i saw was an injured QB playing in a hostile enviroment against the leagues top defense, and even with that, being up 12 points with a few minutes left. That’s like blaming special teams or the defense for all the picks Favre would throw at the end of playoff games.

          1. shawn September 21, 2015

            The reason the Packers were up was because of the defense.

          2. PF4L September 21, 2015

            OK, you win. The reason the 2 games had different outcomes was because of Rodgers, it had nothing to do with defense or special teams meltdowns. I am now humbled and enlightened. Thank you for the education.

          3. Phatgzus September 21, 2015

            PF, the Packers D was on the field for SIXTEEN drives and SEVENTY plays, that is an insane amount. They didn’t start giving up first downs untill the second half. The Packers offense ran only 27 plays in the second half, including 2 3-and-outs before the D gave up those 2 TDS. They were gassed, they’d been on the field for a ridiculous amount of time.

  11. PF4L September 21, 2015

    That was the “total” difference? Yea, that and minus all the fuck ups of the NFCCG that i listed above. And if i’m not mistaken, tonight the defense also answered the bell holding the Seahawks scoreless by creating turnovers in the 4th quarter.

    By your account, it doesn’t matter what the rest of the team does to win or lose, it’s all on how Rodgers plays. I always thought it was a team sport.

  12. Fritz September 22, 2015

    MM has turned over OC to a full time coach and it shows. Esp. At the end of the first half and also the 2 pt. Conversion in the 4th qtr.