The Green Bay Packers have been rewarded once again for the free agency philosophy we have all come to know and love — sit around with your thumbs in your asses.
The Packers were awarded two additional sixth-round picks (No. 210 and 212) as compensation for losing more free agents than they signed in 2014. The Packers lost four free agents — receiver James Jones, center Evan Dietrich-Smith, tackle Marshall Newhouse and defensive end C.J. Wilson — last offseason. They signed none.
Here’s where you’re probably wondering about the Julius Peppers and Letroy Guion signings. Well, those don’t count. Both guys were released by their previous employers, so they’re considered street free agents and thus don’t count as free agent signees.
The NFL has some top secret formula for awarding these compensatory picks. It has to do with the value a team loses.
So for the Packers’ purposes, Jones and Dietrich-Smith were the two players they actually received the picks for. Newhouse and Wilson were both signed for tiny contracts and did very little for their new teams. Hence, no compensation.
So what should we expect from these picks, you ask?
Surely, Big Ted will turn them into draft day gold!
On occasion, that has happened.
In 2008, the Packers chose guard Josh Sitton with a fourth-round compensatory pick. In 2012, they got defensive lineman Mike Daniels with a fourth.
Of course, Ted has also drafted guys like Jerron McMillian and Andrew Datko with compensatory picks.
Overall, Ted has had 13 compensatory selections.
If you count cornerback Davon House, a fourth-rounder in 2011, he’s hit on three of 13 so far. The jury, of course, remains out on last year’s picks — tight end Richard Rodgers (third) and receiver Jared Abbrederis (fifth).
However, the overall results certainly aren’t overwhelmingly great.
Not terrible either for bonus picks.
What the hell is going on around here! No comp pick for Newhouse? Well those cracker jacks in NY can take their double top secret formula and decoder rings and stick it.
I guess receiving two late sixth round picks is better than a kick to the groin.
An unconfirmed source indicated that there was a lot of discussion on whether Newhouse warranted a comp pick, but after much deliberation they decided against awarding the Packers a selection when someone brought up the point, “you’ve got to be fucking kidding me.”
There was also some talk of the Packers owing the Browns a 7th rounder, but the idea was tabled after it was determined the Browns actually picked up Newhouse off Craigslist.
i thought i would compare your evaluation of TT’s 4th round [and lower] compensatory picks or otherwise picks, with Mike#1’s picks at or below fourth round, when he was GM, wearing two hats. but then, as i got into it, i started to notice i had just eaten breakfast.
The comp picks are fine, however finding appropriate talent in the later rounds is always tougher, if not impossible. Everyone can say what they want, but when it is all said and done, finding gems that far down the pecking order is a tall order. While TT does “hit” occasionally, our first round picks are never even first rounders’ (as in “Blue Chip” players). These guys are rare, and they are usually gone well before TT has an opportunity to draft them. While that means Green Bay is doing well in the post season, it does not bode well for getting “elite talent” from the draft, in fact it prohibits TT from this by default. What TT fails to fully realize is that the only way to get the “elite blue chip player” is to enter into free agency a little more often than he does with the occasional “deep pockets” needed to put this team over the top. . .
I can’t recall where, but I read something a while back that said the numbers of “hits” in Free Agency is about the same as they are in the draft, except the price tag is way higher. TT stockpiles draft picks to change the odds in his favor.
The rationale behind that was that players do well in certain systems and/or with various supporting members and coaches that usually don’t follow them to their new teams. e.g. how well did Greg Jennings or James Jones do for their new teams? How’d that Joe Johnson signing work out for Sherman? For every Darrelle Revis for NE this last year, there’s also several players that fail to live up to their new contract. So invest in the guys you know in the system that they thrived in.
I think what makes it impossible to know if a FA or draftee is going to be good is the injury factor which is significant for football being a violent sport. Injury is mostly bad luck. Because of this TT is biased towards draft because they’re cheaper and younger. If they get injured, you’re still not paying them that much and they can recover faster because they’re younger. FA can also decline the year they sign so you don’t know. Get as many drafts as possible so you can increase your odds without breaking the bank. NFL experience is more valuable for receivers, Oline and QB because the mental part is more significant (playbooks get really big for those guys). We prioritized that in FA so we put up big money for Cobb and Bulaga but let defense walk.
Let’s not forget how TT can package lower round picks to move up in a round a notch or 2.
In TT we trust.