Predictions: Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Shawn (13-3) — This Sunday the Green Bay Packers play their biggest game since the Super Bowl following the 2010 season, and they play arguably their biggest game at Lambeau Field since the 2007 NFC Championship game. The Packers have played three playoff games at Lambeau Field since their Super Bowl run. Why is this one a bigger game? Because they lost two of those three games.

In fact, the Packers own the dubious distinction of having suffered the most home playoff defeats since 2002 in the NFL. Besides his braindead GM-ing, Mike Sherman was shown the door not for his regular season record, which was pretty good, but because his teams destroyed the Lambeau Field playoff mystique. They didn’t just lose, but they got embarrassed at home in the playoffs.

Unfortunately, one could make the case that though Mike McCarthy’s teams have been tremendously successful during the regular season, they have not done any better in the playoffs outside of the one magical run in 2010. McCarthy is 6-5 in the playoffs with four of those wins coming in 2010, and worse, Aaron Rodgers is 5-4 as a starter in the playoffs with four of his wins coming in 2010.

Let’s just cut to the chase here — the Packers MUST win this game. After all, what is the point of getting home field advantage if you can’t win at home in the playoffs? And that is very much the label that is ready to be hung on Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers’ team if they don’t win this game.

The Packers have, for the most part, been dominant at home this season and Aaron Rodgers has been spectacular. In prior years, a cold game at Lambeau Field was a disadvantage for the Packers. That is not the case this season. The Packers are much more physical on both sides of the ball and they have an offensive line and a running back who are quite capable of taking a game over.

In fact, I’ve heard a lot of speculation all week about whether the Packers defense can stop DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys’ running game. No one seems to be wondering if the Cowboys have any chance to stop Eddie Lacy and the Packers’ running game. They should check their stats. In the second half of the season, Eddie Lacy has more yards and a better yards per carry average than Murray. Perhaps partially because he’s been worn down, Murray seems to be slowing down. Meanwhile, Eddie Lacy seems to be getting stronger every week.

Murray and the Cowboys were good for 75 yards against the Lions last week. Lacy was good for 100 yards against the Lions just the week before. The Cowboys’ much-hyped and Pro Bowl-laden offensive line also gave up six sacks to the Lions; whereas the Packers’ line gave up one, or rather, Matt Flynn gave up one.

Sunday’s game is going to be cold. It is predicted to be around 20 degrees. If that is the case, then we are expecting a heat wave because it has been steady in the single digits with wind chills below zero for about the last 10 days straight here. The Packers have been practicing in the cold by leaving the doors to the Don Hutson Center open. As much as I wouldn’t expect the cold to be a huge factor, that HAS to be at least a small advantage for the Packers. Tony Romo is a Wisconsin boy who shouldn’t be bothered by 20 degrees, but until we see them handle it, we don’t know how well the Cowboys will deal with the conditions.

Injuries are no excuse this time around either. The Packers are miraculously healthy with their entire 53-man roster able to practice on Thursday. The Cowboys are also pretty healthy, though they do have some defensive players who are banged up and questionable. Aaron Rodgers’ calf could be an excuse if he tweaks it again and the cold won’t help with that. However, last I checked, Tony Romo still has a couple broken bones in his back and the cold won’t help with that either.

I was fairly convinced before last weekend that the Packers would clobber whoever came to Lambeau Field on Sunday. They simply have played too well there this season. Aaron Rodgers has been amazing there and the team is healthy and hungry. However, it does concern me that the Cowboys won a game against the Lions that they should not have won. A win like that has a way of freeing up a team, allowing them to play loose. The Cowboys know they have a better game in them and they will be ready to put that on display on Sunday.

The Cowboys also have a great formula in winning on the road with their running game and they have a big, physical receiver, which has given the Packers issues at times this season. Basically, the Cowboys have what it takes to score points on the Packers. Even without Rodgers’ injury, the Cowboys likely knew they don’t have much of a chance of applying pressure to Rodgers without blitzing. I expect them to take some chances and get after Rodgers, try to test whether he can run from the pocket or not.

Ironically, that was the game plan against Romo all along. The Redskins, Eagles, and Lions to some extent, showed what the blitz can do to Romo. How both teams handle the blitz and protect their quarterback is another huge factor in this game.

With both offenses plenty capable of scoring, the focus really shifts to the defenses. Whichever defense can make a couple plays likely determines the outcome. In that case, the Packers should have the clear advantage. The Packers have the more talented defense, but the Cowboys have shown all season what playing together and tackling well can do. The Packers MUST tackle well in this game and if the one real defensive star in this game — Clay Matthews — can have a good game, the Packers should be in great shape to advance.

Ultimately, I think the Packers offense can mostly control the game and the Packers defense can make a couple plays to seal it.

Packers 31, Cowboys 24

Andrew (12-4) — Here it is… plain and simple. This Dallas Cowboys team is not ready to win a game of this magnitude on the road and this Green Bay Packers team will not lose another game of this magnitude at home.

Jason Garrett has never coached in the playoffs prior to this season and has just one playoff win. Tony Romo is a proven choker, time and time again when the chips are down and this is the biggest game of his career. DeMarco Murray is a very good running back who has a propensity for putting the ball on the ground. This miracle of a season the Cowpokes have put together is admirable, but the stars might just be aligning perfectly for the Packers to lay an epic beatdown on these twerps from Texas.

You see, no one is going to tell me that the Dallas Cowboys have earned the right to win a game like this. They haven’t. And unless this Packers team has ghosts of recent playoff losses past and beat themselves into oblivion, then I don’t see any reason why overwhelming domination is out of the question. This Cowboys team is not the 49ers of the past couple years. They are not the Super Bowl champion Giants teams either.

Mike McCarthy, Dom Capers, Aaron Rodgers and a good portion of this Packers roster, have suffered the character-building playoff losses teams often need leading up to a game like this. The Packers have gained the maturity and experience that no one on the Cowboys’ roster has. This Green Bay team knows what they need to do in order to win this game, and unlike the past few years when the Packers soft defense was always in question, this year I feel supremely confident.

Not to mention Aaron Rodgers, even with his potentially very gimpy one leg, could be the healthiest starting quarterback in this game. Detroit had the Cowboys on the ropes in a hard-fought and physical game. There’s at least some reason to believe that battle took its toll on the Cowboys and could benefit the Packers this week. However, the Cowboys got some good news on Friday, when linebacker Rolando McClain and defensive end Jeremy Mincey, both passed concussion protocol. One look at the injury report though, and it is clear who the healthier team is. Green Bay by a lot.

Simply put, the Packers have no excuses here folks. Well, I guess if Aaron gets knocked out of the game then all bets are off, but the same can be said for Romo. That’s a wash. This is a game where all comparisons point to the Packers. They are a team resembling a championship racehorse about to run a huge race. They just came off a really nice tuneup versus a good Detroit Lions team and now off a slight layoff are poised to fire a huge shot. No excuses.

That doesn’t mean the Cowboys can’t win because perfectly primed horses do get beat. Just look at the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint when No Nay Never was clearly the best horse, but decided two strides before the wire that he could coast home, lose by a nose, and cost Monty and I over $20,000 on a massive Pick 4 score. The Packers can’t make that mistake and must bring it for 60 full minutes.

If Green Bay doesn’t allow Dallas to sneak back into the game late, I think it would take an almost perfect performance from the Pokes to beat the Packers under the current circumstances at Lambeau Field. If that happens and we see the Packers lose even when putting their best foot forward, we will undoubtedly be treated to one magnificent display of football that eventually ends in heartbreak and pain similar to that of the Breeders’ Cup.

I just don’t see it going down that way. I really think the Packers are going to roll on offense. I’m setting the over under on Tim Masthay’s punts at .5, and the Packers defense, led by the attitude and aggression of Clay Matthews and Sam Barrington, will wage a gang-tackling war on the vaunted Cowboys’ ground game.

DeMarco Murray will be held to less than 150 all-purpose yards and will turn the ball over at least once. Romo will throw no less than two picks and will have to leave the game at some point due to injury. Brandon Weeden will enter in relief and look good. That is until Romo feels good enough to come back into the game, where he will then promptly throw an ill-advised interception in the end zone, thus beginning a series of Matt Flynn kneel-downs to end it.

Packers roll, yo!

Packers 41, Cowboys 24

Monty (12-4) — Somebody asked me what I thought about the game last night. I told them I wasn’t worried in the least bit and I guess I would have to think about it long and hard for a reason to become worried.

That about sums it up.

I’ve heard the noise about the Cowboys being the hottest team in the league and about being undefeated on the road. Well, guess what?

Hey, don’t get me wrong. These Cowboys are a nice little team, but they remind me a lot of the 2010 Atlanta Falcons. Lots of flash, not a lot of substance. They are decidedly NOT the Cowboys of Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Haley, etc.

They do not have the playoff mettle. Hell, prior to this season, they hadn’t made the playoffs since 2009. So most of the guys on this Cowboys team haven’t even been in the playoffs before. That showed last week, when Dallas stumbled around for a while before finally beating the Lions with the aid of the refs.

These guys aren’t quite ready for prime time and they certainly don’t have the type of veteran leaders that can overcome lack of playoff experience.

That’s the main reason I’m going to pick the Packers.

But let’s look at the Packers for a moment. They’re the opposite of the Cowboys.

Granted, there are a lot of young guys on the roster, but they’re young guys who’ve been in the playoffs before. This is a seasoned playoff team and the guys on that team — both young and veteran — are probably also pretty pissed off.

They’re probably pissed off because they’re tired of hearing about how they can’t win a playoff game. They’re probably also pissed off because the media focus has clearly been on Dallas this week. Plus, the Packers have the type of veteran leaders the Cowboys don’t — the guys who are going to keep everyone focused during the playoffs. Guys like Aaron Rodgers and Julius Peppers.

Yes, no doubt it’s going to come down to who plays better on the field on Sunday, but I think the teams match up pretty evenly on paper. Where the Packers have a huge and discernible advantage is in the intangible category because of the things I just mentioned.

That’s why the Packers win. Not because they’re more talented. Not because they’re playing at home. Not because it’s cold.

The Packers win because they’re the more focused and more playoff-seasoned team.

They’ll do it in grand fashion too.

Packers 38, Cowboys 17