• Articles
  • News
  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Website Terms of Use
  • Contact
Total Packers - Green Bay Packers Blogs and News
  • Home
  • Analysis
  • Packers News
  • Contact
  • Disclaimer
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Analysis
  • Packers News
  • Contact
  • Disclaimer
No Result
View All Result
Total Packers
No Result
View All Result

Packers Defensive Line Will Win Super Bowl

Monty McMahon by Monty McMahon
January 7, 2010
in Uncategorized
3
Cullen and the boys could carry the day

The statement alone is preposterous – the Green Bay Packers defensive line will lead the team to a Super Bowl title – but the statistics back it up.

We’re talking about the Defensive Hog Index, developed by Cold Hard Football Facts. The Green Bay Packers rank first this season and that’s significant because, since it’s development two seasons ago, the index has been used to correctly pick 20 out of 22 playoff games.

First, I’m sure you’re wondering what the hell the DHI is, so I’ll let CHFF explain.

The Defensive Hog Index is our effort to quantify which team has the best defensive front in football. It’s proven a huge indicator of success since we introduced it during the 2007 season: teams that are better in the DHI are 20-2 in the playoffs over that time, and the No. 1 team in DHI has won the Super Bowl each year (2007 Giants and 2008 Steelers).

The top defensive front is that which posts the highest average rating across the board. The Defensive Hog Index is based upon these criteria:

YPA – Yards Per Attempt. So simple, even you can understand it. This rates a defense’s ability to stuff an opposing ground game.

NPP% – Negative Pass Plays, expressed as a percentage. This is how often an opponent’s pass plays end in either a sack or interception. Defenses that get after the quarterback and overwhelm the opposing offensive line naturally force sacks and INTs. These negative pass plays are calculated as a percentage of attempts. So if a team foces two sacks and two INTs in 40 pass plays, their NPP% will be 10 percent (4/40).

3down% – Opposition success rate on third down. The lower the percentage, the higher the defensive success.

Here’s how the Packers finished first.

They stuff the run as well as anyone (3.59 YPA, 2nd); they force more Negative Pass Plays than any team in football (11.61%), paced by a league-leading 30 INTs, and they’re No. 9 in third-down defense (36.02%).

After the Packers, it gets dicey. The remaining playoff teams finished as follows.

2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. New York Jets
7. Baltimore Ravens
8. Dallas Cowboys
10. Arizona Cardinals
11. Cincinnati Bengals
15. New Orleans Saints
18. New England Patriots
26. San Diego Chargers
30. Indianapolis Colts

I say dicey because the teams everyone expects to have success in the playoffs – Colts, Saints, Chargers – are mediocre to terrible in the DHI rankings.

After looking at this year’s final rankings, CHFF’s Kerry Byrne told the New York Times he thinks the success of the DHI will be tested.

“I would agree that its success probably is a bit fluky, a coincidence of timing,” he said. “I don’t think we’ll make all our picks based upon it this year.”

If the playoffs played out by DHI rankings, they would go like this.

Week 1 (NFC): Packers over Cardinals, Eagles over Cowboys
Week 1 (AFC): Jets over Bengals, Ravens over Patriots
Week 2 (NFC): Packers over Vikings, Eagles over Saints
Week 2 (AFC): Jets over Colts, Ravens over Chargers
Week 3 (NFC): Packers over Eagles
Week 3 (AFC): Jets over Ravens
Super Bowl: Packers over Jets

Now, many of those scenarios, especially in the AFC, are absurd – the Jets going to the Super Bowl, for instance. The NFC, however, looks a lot more evenly matched from top to bottom, where the hottest teams are the third and fifth seeds (Dallas and Green Bay). The real wild card is the Eagles, who are ranked second, but haven’t beaten their first round opponent, the Cowboys, in two previous tries this season.

Despite the index’s seeming lack of predictive powers this season, Bryne still likes the Packers chances.

“I actually love Green Bay’s chances to at least reach the Super Bowl,” Bryne said. “The No. 1 defensive hogs are obviously big. But they do a lot of things well. In particular, they’ve been dominating the passing battle. And teams that dominate the passing battle generally win. The Packers are second only to New Orleans in passer rating differential, and have come on strong in recent weeks while the Saints have come back to earth.”

I like the Packers chances, too… at least this week.

[ad#totalpackers468x60]

Tags: Arizona CardinalsBaltimore RavensCincinnati BengalsDallas Cowboysdefensive lineGreen Bay PackersIndianapolis ColtsMinnesota VikingsNew England PatriotsNew Orleans SaintsNew York JetsPhiladelphia EaglesSan Diego ChargersSuper Bowl
Previous Post

Vikings Lose Los Angeles As Leverage In Stadium Battle

Next Post

Woodson Wins Defensive Player of the Month Again. Does This Clinch It?

Green Bay Packers’ Recent Achievements in Football

Can the Packers Bounce Back From Their Heartbreaking Loss Against the Falcons and Beat the Saints in Week 3?

September 21, 2023
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) dodges pressure

Game Day: Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears – Week 1 2023

September 10, 2023
Frozen Tundra costumed fan at Lambeau Field 2022

5 Most Shocking Green Bay Packers Moments in History

September 9, 2023
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) dodges pressure

Green Bay Packers’ Recent Achievements in Football

September 2, 2023
Next Post

Woodson Wins Defensive Player of the Month Again. Does This Clinch It?

Comments 3

  1. Avatar for Jeremy Jeremy says:
    14 years ago

    Nice find McMahon.

    The thing I love about Capers 3-4 is that the DE’s are no longer solely responsible for contain. Play after play last season opposing players broke contain on the Packers when the DE’s were pass rushing. This year the big three in front can whip O-linemen and collapse the pocket, while fast linebackers take care of contain. It’s so much better!

  2. Avatar for GreenBay Packer Nation GreenBay Packer Nation says:
    14 years ago

    Admittedly, two years is simply too little data to base predictions on. However, it’s about time someone found a way to document power rankings of the big guys up front. It’ll be interesting (and exciting) if the trend holds true this season as well.

  3. Avatar for Ralph Ralph says:
    14 years ago

    Skewed statistic! You need to add in the power of the offensive team they played to get the numbers and that will put this more into perspective. When you only play pathetic teams the numbers on your defense are going to show that. When you play a team like the steelers and Big Ben tosses over 500 yards against that so called #1 defense it shows the kinks in the formula used to measure it.

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Pinterest
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Total Packers - Green Bay Packers News and Rumors

Subscribe to Packers News Updates

100% Spam Free - Unsubscribe at any time.

Find It!

No Result
View All Result

Recent Posts

  • Packers Fail to Meet Detroit’s Challenge, Fall 34-20
  • Game Day: Lions Visit Green Bay Packers at Lambeau for Week 4 – 2023
  • Packers Steal Lambeau Opener From Saints 18-17
  • Can the Packers Bounce Back From Their Heartbreaking Loss Against the Falcons and Beat the Saints in Week 3?
  • Packers Collapse in 4th Quarter, Lose 25-24
  • Game Day: Packers vs Falcons – Week 2 – 2023 NFL Season
  • Game Preview: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons – Week 2 2023
  • Rodgers Tears Achilles Before Completes Pass as Jet
  • Packers Cruise Past Bears in Lopsided Loss
  • Game Day: Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears – Week 1 2023
  • 5 Most Shocking Green Bay Packers Moments in History
  • Green Bay Packers’ Recent Achievements in Football

Popular Tags

A.J. Hawk Aaron Rodgers Brett Favre Brian Gutekunst Bryan Bulaga Charles Woodson Chicago Bears Chicago Bears Clay Matthews Clay Matthews III Dallas Cowboys Davante Adams Detroit Lions Eddie Lacy fans Featured free agents game analysis Green Bay Packers Green Bay Packers Greg Jennings injuries Jay Cutler Jermichael Finley Jordy Nelson Julius Peppers Mike McCarthy Mike McCarthy Minnesota Vikings Morgan Burnett New England Patriots New Orleans Saints NFL Oakland Raiders Philadelphia Eagles predictions Randall Cobb Sam Shields San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks T.J. Lang Ted Thompson Ted Thompson Tramon Williams Ty Montgomery
No Result
View All Result
  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Pinterest
  • RSS
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • Articles
  • News
  • About
  • Privacy Policy
  • Website Terms of Use
  • Contact

© 2023 Total Packers -- This site is not affiliated with the Green Bay Packers or Packers.com

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Analysis
  • Packers News
  • Contact
  • Disclaimer

© 2023 Total Packers -- This site is not affiliated with the Green Bay Packers or Packers.com