Spring is here, and with that, another NFL Draft approaches. The Draft this year has snuck its way back into April, starting on April 30.
So, we begin this year’s draft series at a very simple starting point- where do the Packers need to get better? This is the first question we need to answer before we can look at a more specific position by position evaluation of needs.
I have attempted to answer this question by taking a deep look at the numbers. Sure, EVERY area of the team can always look to get better, but here’s a look at the areas that certainly need to empirically improve if the Packers are going to get where they want to go.
Red Zone Scoring
One of the constants of life with Aaron Rodgers is that the Packers have always ranked in the top 10 in red zone scoring proficiency. That was not the case in 2014. The Packers scored touchdowns on only 57% of red zone possessions last season, which was just good enough for 11th in the league. Sure, that isn’t anything to slit your wrists over, but it is still troubling for an offense that ranked 1st in the league in scoring overall.
Plus, this was made more glaringly obvious when the Packers struggled near the end of the season and in the playoffs in this area. It also didn’t help that Packer opponents fared just better by scoring touchdowns on 58% of red zone possessions.
This is especially curious when you consider that the Packers were 1st in red zone proficiency in 2012 with practically no running game to speak of. This suggests that either the passing game has become much less proficient in the past couple seasons, or that the Packers aren’t successfully utilizing their improved running game in the red zone.
There are basically three ways to improve this stat- 1) acquire better red zone targets, 2) call different plays, or 3) execute better. Of course, option 3 can always apply for anything. Richard Rodgers and Davante Adams may become better red zone options next season, but the Packers may also want to consider finding another one in the draft.
Short Yardage/Two Point Conversions
Part of the problem in the red zone is the fact that the Packers need to get better in short yardage situations. In third and fourth down and short last season, the Packers ran the ball 32 times and picked up the first down 20 times, for a 62% conversion rate. On those same downs, the Packers threw the ball 30 times and converted for a first down 22 times, for a 73% rate.
When you consider that most runs occurred with only 1 or 2 yards to go, while most passes occurred with 3 or 4 yards to go, that suggests the Packers need to either throw the ball more in short yardage or get better at picking up short yardage via the run. It might be more illustrative to point out that the Packers ran the ball three times on fourth and short and gained a whole 3 yards.
These numbers don’t even include the Packers’ 1 out of 4 conversion rate on two point conversions, which is another poignant illustration of the Packers’ problems with the shortest of yardage.
Coach Mike McCarthy’s neglect of the special teams has been a recurring theme during his tenure. However, another area of the game where the team seems to have zero urgency is in converting two point conversions. Look, you aren’t going to be attempting a two point conversion unless it is an extremely important play. Therefore, I don’t understand the Packers throwaway attitude about converting twos.
Regardless, it stands to reason that if the Packers can improve at picking up short yardage, they will also get better at converting two point plays. More than needing to improve the passing or running game in these situations, the Packers need to establish a couple “go to” plays for short yardage. Nearly every great short yardage team has a particular player or a couple particular plays that they run extremely effectively, and they stick with what works.
Run Defense
The most obviously glaring category for the Packers last season was their run defense. Even though the numbers improved a lot over the final half of the season, the Packers still finished 31st in first downs given up by rush, 27th in opponents yards per rush, and 26th in both opponents rushes per game and yards rushed per game.
Though they nearly got by despite the issue, this weakness was exposed in both playoff games against Dallas and Seattle. If the Packer defense ever wants to get back to being one of the better units in the league, then it will have to get better against the run. When you consider that even if the Packers brought the same front seven back they would still be no better than the unit pushed around in the playoffs last season, you realize that whether it be along the defensive line or the linebackers, either through the draft or signings, the Packers need to acquire some help against the run.