Shawn (7-2, 7-2 ATS) — I would highly recommend that Packers Nation find something better to do this Sunday because what’s likely to go down at some shit college stadium in Minneapolis will be about as pretty as a “Love Boat” prostitute.
That isn’t because the Minnesota Vikings are some great team, because they are not. In fact, about the only hope I have for the Green Bay Packers springs from the fact that the Vikings themselves are a flawed team that is probably a year or two away from being actual contenders. The Vikings were the beneficiary of the Chicago Bears handing them a win in the final three minutes and the St. Louis Rams missing an extra point that would have won that game in regulation. Reverse those outcomes and the Vikes are 5-4, which is probably a truer reflection of who they are.
Regardless, that is still worlds better than the 1-7 Detroit Lions, who just walked into Lambeau Field and put the Packers down. I guess the point here is that it isn’t that the Vikings are great, the problem is that the Packers are terrible, and I don’t see that miraculously turning around in one week any more than playing at Lambeau Field was going to change things.
I think the Packers’ defensive turnaround could continue in this game and that might keep the Packers in it early, same as it did against the Lions. The Vikings and Teddy Bridgewater have been really good at first drives and the first 15 scripted plays since he took over. So, don’t be overly concerned if the Vikings march down the field on their opening possession. The Vikings and Bridgewater have the tendency to cool off from there.
Still, the Vikings have Adrian Peterson, whose own personal window of greatness is closing, but when AP isn’t whipping one of his multitude of kids named via serial number, he is busy whipping on the Packers defense. The Packers defense may hold up in the first half against AP, but eventually they will get tired of being on the field all game and the floodgates will open.
The Packers defense hasn’t been particularly good against the run since Todd Gurley punched them in the face, and they have been especially bad at the edges. AP is one of those few running backs, like Gurley, who can run inside and outside and thus the problem.
The crux of the Packers’ problems will once again be the offense. The Vikings are not spectacular, but solid on defense, somewhat resembling the Rams defense with better safeties. The Packers have had issues with Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen before, and that was back when their tackles were actually playing well. The Vikes also love to attack with the A-gap blitz by their inside linebackers, and that strategy basically destroyed the Packers offense just two weeks ago in Carolina.
The Vikings are better equipped than most to employ the exact strategy that the Rams did on defense. Like the Broncos, they have three decent cover corners, with ex-Panther Captain Munnerlyn manning the slot and playing well. If he can hold down Randall Cobb or Rodgers just refuses to throw Cobb the ball, then the Packers offense is in big trouble.
Again, Ty Montgomery would be a huge plus, but in a repeat of last week, he has been downgraded to doubtful on the injury report, which essentially means he won’t play. Remember when his injury was described as “a normal ankle sprain,” which essentially meant “not a high ankle sprain?” Yeah, that was a lie. They are now admitting it is a high ankle sprain after all. To make matters worse, unlike last week, there is no Jared Abredderis available to even fill the role.
Every division game is important, but the importance of this game is somewhat overstated. If they are a decent team at all, the Vikings should be expected to win on their home field. They still have to play the Packers at Lambeau in Week 17. In a way, that makes this game more important for them than it is for the Packers. The Vikings also face the toughest schedule in the league from here on out.
Fortunately for the Vikings, the Packers are collapsing too fast for even them to keep up. I expect the Vikings to play like the division is on the line. I expect the Packers to play maybe a little better than against the Lions, which won’t be near enough.
With the Lions +11 being probably the easiest bet of the season last week, the Vikings -1 is nearly as easy. The Packers should lose by two scores, at least.
Vikings 31, Packers 11
Monty (6-3, 6-3 ATS) — Well, I didn’t quite see last week’s debacle coming, but at least I was able to make the correct call from a wagering perspective. This week’s spread is equally as laughable, so let’s start there.
The Vikings are currently favored by just 1 point. The team playing by far the better football and playing at home is favored by just 1 point.
Makes no sense…
I’m not really sure why bettors and oddsmakers are giving so much credit to the Green Bay Packers right now. History? The presence of Aaron Rodgers? They’re drunk?
If you’ve watched this football team play in the last four weeks, then you know they have all kinds of issues. This isn’t a “we’ll correct the pad level” and we’ll be alright kind of team.
The primary issue is there are a lack of playmakers on offense. You don’t correct that in-season.
The one thing the Packers can do on that front is change their offensive philosophy and play calling. They’ve shown flashes of being willing to do that by employing more bunch formations and crossing routes, but they still refuse to run the ball.
Last time I checked, running the football effectively opened up the passing game.
Mike McCarthy can say what he wants, but I personally think Tom Clements has been a disaster as a play caller this season. Why would that suddenly change?
And why would guys like Richard Rodgers and Davante Adams suddenly turn into playmakers?
Why would the offensive line suddenly become good at run blocking?
I mean, I could go on.
Defensively, the Packers haven’t played well this season, but they showed they can at least still control a one-dimensional, garbage offense like Detroit’s, last week.
Offensively, the Vikings are not Detroit, unfortunately. The difference is, they can run the ball and I fully expect them to plow right through the Packers with that child abusing fuck Adrian Peterson on Sunday.
Teddy Butthole? Vikings fans can crown that prick all they want, but he’s not the second coming of Fran Tarkenton. They’re just used to watching shitbirds like Christian Ponder flounder around, so they think now that they have a guy who’s mediocre, he’s the savior.
I am not afraid of the Vikings’ passing game, but they don’t need a Herculean passing game to beat the Packers. We’ve seen that in the past.
Butthole just needs to make a throw here and there and, unlike Ponder, he’s perfectly capable of doing that.
The only way I can see this game going the Packers’ way is if, 1. they actually let Eddie Lacy run and he shows his old form and, 2. the pass rush that’s been M.I.A. for three straight weeks pounds the hell out of that Butthole.
Lacy would open things up for Rodgers to take a few shots. The pass rush changes the game for the Packers defense.
Neither of those things have happened in a while. I don’t know why they would this week.
This is going to be brutal, but just remember. At least you’re not a scum-of-the-earth Vikings fan.
Vikings 24, Packers 13