Shawn (7-1, 6-2 ATS) — It seems like the narrative has already been written for this weekend. The Green Bay Packers will rediscover their winning ways once back at Lambeau Field and facing the team they’ve beaten an NFL record 23 straight times there. That being fait accompli, everyone will be reminded that the Detroit Lions are hapless and that winning a 24th straight game against them proves nothing.
Everyone seems pretty convinced that is how it’s all going to go down. I’m not so sure.
Yeah, the Lions are bad, but so are the Packers right now. Regardless of what has happened in the past, the Packers don’t get to start Sunday’s game with a lead. It is going to be 0-0 like always.
The Lions will have watched the same film as everyone else, so expect the same defensive game plan. On offense, the Lions will know that the Packers are soft in the middle of the field when they play zone, and when they play man, they’ll know who to target. Despite their all-around ineptitude, the Lions still have the weapons on offense that can continue the Packers’ defensive woes. They also have a quarterback who can get hot and throw for a lot of yards if given the time and opportunity to do so.
Basically, what I am saying is that despite the Lions’ record and history at Lambeau, they aren’t going to lose just because of the address. If the Packers don’t play better than they have over the past month, they will lose this game and continue their Vikings-like implosion.
About the only thing that makes me think that things will be different on defense is that the Lions have been particularly poor at running the football this season. That should put the game on Matt Stafford’s shoulders, and he hasn’t been good this season. The Packers have been victimized at the edges in the running game, and the Lions have zero outside running game. That works to the Packers’ favor.
Offensively, I also don’t have high hopes in a sudden turnaround occurring. However, I don’t think enough has been said of the loss of Ty Montgomery to this Packers offense. If he is indeed back this week, which I expect, then that puts two talented slot guys on the field for the Packers instead of Randall Cobb being all alone. On top of that, the Packers can negate the bump-and-run against both by lining them both up in the backfield.
If the Lions try to help their coverage with their safeties, then that will open the door for the Packers’ running game to have some success. I also expect Aaron Rodgers and company to have a better plan against the blitz this week.
So, I think that some lethargy from the prior two weeks carries over to this game, but I think James Starks and the return of Ty Montgomery will help the Packers offense find some success. Similar to the Chargers game, I expect the Packers defense to do just enough. All of that for me equals a game that is close early, but the Packers will begin to pull away late in the first half.
Packers 30, Lions 22
Monty (6-2, 5-3 ATS) — Much like the Detroit Lions, I am on a craptacular streak of my own. Misfired on the past two picks and boned the last three against the spread.
So we’ve got the Green Bay Packers, coming off two straight losses… scratch that. Two straight embarrassments getting 11 points over the hapless Detroit Lions at home.
That makes sense. The Lions have won just once this season, they haven’t won in Wisconsin since the year Nevermind was released and, most importantly, THEY’RE THE FUCKING LIONS!
Be that as it may, this Green Bay Packers team might not be much better than that 1991 squad that lost to the Lions. That team featured Mike Tomczak at quarterback.
If you don’t know who Mike Tomczak is, he once lost a QB battle to King Dickwad, Jim Harbaugh, with the Chicago Bears.
Yeah, I’m comparing this Packers team to one helmed by some Chicago Bears riff raff. How do you feel about that, boys?!
Frankly, until these fucking losers show me they can play a relatively complete game again, I will remain down on them.
The good news is, we’re getting a band-aid for our bullet hole of a football team this weekend. The Detroit Lions are that band-aid. Because they’re that bad.
Just like the Chargers, we imagine Detroit will pile up plenty of yards through the air. The assclowns who play on the Packers defense have given up 1,475 combined yards over the past three weeks. More than 500 of those yards came courtesy of Phyllis Rivers and the Chargers, who, like Detroit, can’t run the football either.
So old Butterball is gonna go out there and sling it all over the place.
I completely agree with Shawn, though. The Lions are just inept enough that they’ll allow the Packers defense to make an opportune play at the right time to preserve a win.
And as much as I hate the Packers defense right now, I like the offense only slightly more. That said, we did see some positive signs last week. Namely, the Packers changed their play calling philosophy, implementing more bunch formations, motion and picks to get their receivers — who everyone says can’t get open themselves — open through play design.
That worked and the Packers have to continue it. Now, if they’ll actually just make a small commitment to running the football, they might have something going. Then they can keep that fucking garbage defense off the field.
If you’re betting, take the Lions in this game, but the Packers will get their band-aid win.
Packers 24, Lions 20