Many NFL commentators believe a highly-drafted player can keep his status on the depth chart for up to two years on that basis alone. After that, talent and production is going to determine who plays.
If this is the case, no one is more under the gun this preseason than receiver Davante Adams, a second-round draft choice in 2014.
After so much hype and hope in 2015, Adams regressed after a promising rookie year.
Statistics, however, suggest that Adams has been a mediocre target for quarterback Aaron Rodgers for both of his seasons in Green Bay.
Adams got an almost identical number of snaps in his first two seasons (739 vs. 762). Rodgers targeted Adams only 66 times during his rookie year. Of those 66, only 38 were completions, a lowly 57.6 percent completion rate.
Let’s create a new statistic — yards per target.
In 2014, Adams came in at 6.76 ypt. That was behind Andrew Quarless (7.02), Eddie Lacy (7.76), Jordy Nelson (10.13) and Randall Cobb (10.21).
You might expect Adams to be behind Nelson and Cobb, but Lacy — a running back — and Quarless?
In 2015, Adams had a dismal yards per target average of 5.19. While the whole receivers group had a down year, Adams trailed Richard Rodgers (6.0), Cobb (6.42), James Starks (7.40) and James Jones (8.9).
Meanwhile, he caught only 53.8 percent of the passes thrown his way for the year.
Low number of targets and low completion percentage usually indicate that a receiver isn’t gaining much separation from defenders.
Throwing to Adams simply hasn’t been a very productive strategy for the Packers two years running.
We’re not putting much stock in the early depth chart. Most of us doubt that Adams is the presumptive third receiver, behind Nelson and Cobb, at this point. The competition for WR3 appears to be wide open.
If he’s to win the job, Adams’ on-field preseason performance needs to best that of his rivals.
And if it doesn’t?
So long, Davante!