Shawn (10-3) — This is where my record and the Green Bay Packers’ record part ways.
If the Packers beat the Bills on Sunday, I believe they will win out. They will go 13-3, take the No. 1 seed in the NFC and any team that wants to beat the Packers in the playoffs will have to do it in Lambeau Field.
However, I don’t believe the Packers will win Sunday. I believe this team HAS to do everything the hard way, and that will mean having to win the final two games to win the division and a possible road game in the NFC Championship, IF the Packers make it that far.
Let’s count the ways that this upcoming match-up with the Bills resembles the 2011 trip to Kansas City. The game against the Chiefs happened in Week 15 of the regular season. Check. Kansas City, other than Green Bay, is one of the most difficult outdoor stadiums to win at with one of the most dedicated and rabid fan bases. Check. Kyle Orton was the quarterback of the Chiefs. Check. The Chiefs had a young, up-and-coming defense with a dominant front seven. Check. The Chiefs had a ball control offense that, including checks to the running back and throwing the ball to the tight end. Check. Kansas City is a place where the Packers rarely win. Check, though actually, the Packers have NEVER won at Buffalo, being 0-5 all time. And lastly, the Packers would finish the season at home agains the Lions, with both teams being in the playoffs. Check.
The Packers offense and Aaron Rodgers have never consistently figured out the cover-2 defense. There is no game plan or system in place that has consistently beaten it. No. The Packers have beaten it by protecting Aaron Rodgers, who has had time to allow the coverage to break down, extend the play or leave the pocket and make plays outside of it. That won’t happen in this game, at least not enough for the Packers to consistently move the football. The Bills WILL sack Rodgers if he holds the ball against them.
The Bills have been strong against the run at home this season. I don’t see the Packers having a lot of success there, whether Eddie Lacy totes the rock or James Starks does. That puts the game on Rodgers and without the time to do the things he has done in the last couple games, I think he struggles again against a defense that will sit back and expect their front four to both rush Rodgers and stop the run.
The Bills are barely mediocre on offense, but the Packers have been a bend-but-don’t-break defense on the road all season, with a lot of breaking. Like the Chiefs in 2011, the Bills will possess the ball and score enough to win the game.
I sure hope I’m wrong. I’d much rather see the Packers at 11-3 than my pick record at 11-3, but this is the way I see it. I believe the Packers will get their heads on straight and finish the season by winning their last two games and winning the division in the process, but not this week. I sense a letdown brought on by a very good defense in a hostile environment.
Bills 23, Packers 18
Andrew (10-3) — Do you know how many times I’ve watched the Buffalo Bills play this year? Exactly zero.
What about how many Buffalo Bills highlights I can remember seeing this season? Gosh… there has to be at least one in there somewhere, right? Probably of Sammy Watkins making a big play? Maybe, but I honestly don’t recall it.
A good portion of my Sundays are spent (when Green Bay isn’t playing) on DirecTV Channel 702 otherwise known as Game Mix. Guess how much attention I have ever given the Buffalo Bills when watching eight games at one time? You guessed it. Exactly zero.
I’m not trying to disrespect Buffalo in any way, I’m simply telling the truth. Yet everyone in the media would have us believe that this Buffalo team and its defense is the second coming of the Seattle Seahawks. I’m getting a little bit sick of it and I can only imagine our heroes in green and gold are, too.
Top-rated asshole Jim Schwartz leads the Buffalo defense, featuring the wide-9 look he used ad nauseum in Detroit and boy oh boy does he have these guys playing well! But there’s not a lot of people talking about the strength of the Packers’ offensive line and how important they are to the success of a team that is 10-3. And believe it or not, there’s not even a lot of people talking about Aaron Rodgers and the potent Green Bay offense. It’s all about how good the 7-6 Bills’ defense is.
Add to the mix that the Packers defense threw in a massive clunker last week and I expect a top-notch performance on both sides of the ball. If many of the readers out there recognized the amount of players who were standing around and not finishing plays against the lowly Falcons, we can only hope the defensive meeting rooms were filled with screaming and expletives. This is a type of game for Green Bay where both the offense and defense have good reason to be pissed off.
Eddie Lacy is listed as probable for the game on Sunday, but everything I’m reading and hearing about him makes it sound more like questionable and possibly even bordering on doubtful. Enter James Starks.
Starks was born in Niagara Falls, went to college at Buffalo and has gone on the record that there are a lot of friends and family who have been waiting a long time to attend this game and see him play. Starks himself has 20 tickets he’s providing for people. It seems to me that the planets have aligned and given the Packers the perfect opportunity to give Eddie Lacy a little break.
If there is one thing that is kryptonite to the wide-9 defense, it is quick runs between the tackles. Both James Starks and DuJuan Harris are actually much better suited to exploit this defense than Lacy. I don’t expect these lighter and quicker backs to dominate a very good run defense in Buffalo, but I do think with the offensive line playing like they are and getting to the second level, the running game will do what it needs to in order to allow Rodgers to do what he does.
Also, how deflating was Buffalo’s loss to the Broncos last week? If the Packers get on this team early like they’ve done to teams at home, it’s possible that the Bills fold up the tents.
The Packers haven’t played well on the road, but I expect that to change. Although red zone woes again make Mason Crosby a major player in this game, James Starks is going to bust a long one at a crucial moment in what will be a hard-fought Packers win.
Green Bay 26, Buffalo 16
Monty (9-4) — I’ve had this game circled on the calendar for a while. Not because I necessarily have a ton of respect for the Bills, but more so because I feel like the laws of probability tell me the Packers HAVE to lose another game this season.
It became clear they weren’t going to be losing at home at a certain point and as I’ve pointed out numerous times, the Packers are a different, totally mediocre team on the road. So which road game were they going to lose? Probably not Tampa or Minnesota, although the closeness of that Vikings’ game illustrates just how different this Packers team is away from home.
So this is the game. These Bills are not the train wreck of a Bills team you’re used to seeing.
Granted, they’re not great. They’re just 7-6 and they haven’t been able to get anything going on offense all season. However, the Bills defense is very stout. I know this because I’ve had them on one of my fantasy teams and they would regularly put up 15-plus points.
One of the reasons for this is a tremendous pass rush. The Bills will get pressure on Aaron Rodgers on Sunday, despite how good the Packers’ offensive line is playing. With less time to pick apart the coverage, Rodgers and the offense aren’t going to put up a lot of points.
I’m not going to sit here and tell you the Bills are going to put up a lot of points. What I am going to tell you is the Packers defense is the main reason the Packers aren’t very good on the road. They love to use the ever-frustrating bend-but-don’t-break philosophy.
While there’s no way they can play as badly as they did last week, they’re going to end up bending too far this week. Old nemesis and Chicago Bear great Neck Beard will be a thorn in our side once again.
Bills 24, Packers 20