Predictions – Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers

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Colin Kaepernick

Colin Kaepernick

Monty: Oh boy. The Green Bay Packers will face the San Francisco 49ers again. This is the fourth time in two seasons and the 49ers are 3-0 during that stretch.

First, let’s deal with the weather. Freezing ass cold. Do I really think this gives the Packers an advantage? No, I don’t. Both teams are dealing with the same conditions.

I do think the weather is going to affect the game, though. The football is going to be harder to hold onto. Hits are going to sting a little more. And kicking will probably be next to impossible, so let’s hope this doesn’t come down to a Mason Crosby field goal.

So, the Packers are taking the approach that, hey we’ve been in the playoffs for four weeks in a row. Well, if that’s the case then you aren’t playing on Sunday because you lost two weeks ago to Pittsburgh. In other words, that’s nonsense.

On the other side, the 49ers are the hottest team in football, having won six in a row. Do I care about that? Nope. It’s not the hottest team going into the playoffs that makes the run every year, it’s the team that gets hot when the playoffs start.

So the 49ers can shove their six wins in a row up their ass.

In the teams’ week one matchup, the 49ers torched the Packers through the air. Colin Kaepernick had over 400 yards passing and Anquan Boldin absolutely ate up the Packers secondary.

The major issue here was tackling. Boldin picked up huge chunks after the catch.

Case in point, Kaepernick was merely average the rest of the season. He had only one other game where he threw for more than 300 yards.

I don’t expect a repeat performance from either of these guys, especially with the way Tramon Williams and Sam Shields have been playing lately. The potential wild card is if the 49ers line Boldin up in the slot, where he’s going to be matched up on Micah Hyde.

I’m not overly worried about Hyde handling himself either, though.

To me, this game comes down to one thing. Who can establish the running game.

The 49ers didn’t see much of Eddie Lacy in week one. He had only 14 carries for 41 yards. If Mike McCarthy is smart, they’ll see plenty of Lacy on Sunday. The recipe for beating the 49ers is to smash them in the mouth. That’s how both Seattle and Indianapolis did it.

Unfortunately, I don’t think Mike McCarthy is smart. I think he’ll end up relying too heavily on Aaron Rodgers.

Meanwhile, we know the Packers can’t stop any running backs, so expect Frank Gore to have a big game. Once again, the defense will be the Packers undoing.

49ers 28, Packers 14

Shawn: Here it is, what we’ve all been hoping for — another shot at the big, bad San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers have gotten Michael Crabtree and Aldon Smith back, they’ve won six games in a row, and one could make a pretty solid argument that they are playing like the best team in football right now.

That’s all well and good, but if you’re a 49ers fan, then you are VERY concerned going into this game. You are concerned that your inexorable march to the Super Bowl is about to get derailed, not by a better team, but by the COLD, to which you have no idea how your team is going to react.

So, let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yeah, it is going to be COLD. Historically cold. Actually, the forecast is looking pretty similar to the NFC championship game against the Giants in 2008, which was played in -1/-23 degree temperatures.

Yeah, the Giants outplayed the Packers that day, but that was a team from New York, not San Francisco, and the temperature that day was an anomaly. That isn’t the case this time around. It has been bitterly cold in Green Bay for the last two weeks. In those last two weeks, the Packers have been practicing outside, in the cold.

So, are the Packers guaranteed to play better in it? No, but there is no doubt they should be better prepared for it. They will know what to wear and how to handle it before game day, meaning they can spend less time thinking about it.

Colin Kaepernick, who otherwise should love the idea of playing the Packers again, has never played a game like this before. No one knows how well he’ll handle it.

Of course, Jim Harbaugh will likely look to mitigate that fact by sticking with the run and playing defense. The bigger, more physical team has the advantage in the deep cold, and recent history suggests that is San Francisco. We will see. In the first two months of the season, the Packers ranked in the top five in the league in rushing and against the run, and I suggested that they finally were the kind of team built for Lambeau Field in January. Obviously, the run defense has dropped like a rock kite since.

It may be unrealistic to think that the Packers’ run defense would rediscover itself at this point, but the cold will slow the game down some and speed, not power, is the key to the run-option offense. With the run-option reduced as a threat, that mitigates the Packers’ dire situation at OLB, and it makes the game a more straight up Frank Gore and their offensive line against our defensive front seven match up.

Yes, they still have the advantage in that scenario, but the Packers have Eddie Lacy and James Starks, who ran in cold temperatures the last two home games. If Aaron Rodgers can make more plays on third down than Kaepernick, then the Packers have a real shot to trade blows.

In a weather-controlled environment, I probably like the 49ers by at least 10. Maybe the cold will just make it 20-10 instead of 34-24. Quite possibly, but this is more a feeling than anything substantiated by logic. This kind of cold changes things.

Early in the day before the 2007 NFC championship game, I went out and shoveled my driveway. I came back in and said, “Whoever wins today has nothing to do with who is the more talented team. It will be decided by whoever handles the cold better.” Just THAT fact has to scare the crap out of 49ers fans.

The older you get, the more you feel the cold. Frank Gore is getting old. He is good for 120 and a TD. Eddie Lacy is young, full of chum, and protected by dreadlocks. He is good for 180 and 2 TDs. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Effin Rodgers. The Packers win in the cold this time 

So let it be written. So let it be done.

Packers 24, 49ers 17

About The Author

Monty McMahon is one of the founders of Total Packers. He is probably the most famous graduate of UW-Oshkosh next to Jim Gantner.

65 Comments on "Predictions – Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers"

  1. Kato

    I am sorry Shawn. I just dont see where your logic is. Lacy is a beast, but 180 against one of the top run defenses in football? While still dealing with a sore ankle. And the packers offensive line struggled with run blocking a little last week against the worst run defense in football. It will be on rodgers to try and keep up with the 49ers offense, because even with the weather conditions, i see them putting up no less than 28. I dont think it will be as bad as the playoff game last year, it will more closely mirror the first game of the year. I dont think Kap puts up big numbers, but does just enough, and kendall hunter will be a big thorn in their side. 31-28 niners in a game for the ages.

    • E. Wolf

      Here is why I think Lacy may be more of a factor: his size and strength. The guy is a bruiser. Big and powerful, he smashes through defensive lines, very much like a hammer.
      In the offseason, I read comments from former players saying this type of back is like trying to catch a falling sofa. It takes a couple of guys, and even then it hurts.
      All of that is going to be exacerbated by the unfathomable cold. Tackling is going to be painful no matter who is involved, but with Lacy, it is going to be on an entirely different level.

      • Phatgzus

        Yup, I think those comments were specifically about Ron Dayne, but they fit Eddie like a couch cover, granted I view him as more of a rampaging refrigerator.

        Hey maybe we should call him Sofa King, ya know ’cause he’s so fucking awesome and in the offseason he dominates the davenport what with his cartoons, cereal, ganja and whatnot.

        • Phatgzus

          It only affected him in 1 game and he’s played in colder since, it’s not like James Starks can’t hold his own if Eddie has to miss some time, GOD forbid.

  2. Richard

    Capers will get pantsed again in front of a national audience. At least it isn’t a night game like last year so hopefully Dom Crappers can stay awake til the end. Packers keep it close because of pride. 26-23 SF douchebags

  3. ay hombre

    One need look no further than Rocky IV to determine who will win this game.

    “Forget technique. Forget strategy. This is just a street fight. It’s a question of who wants it most.”

    I think that will determine this game. In essence that is like Shawn says, the team that handles the weather better will find success. In other words…Who wants it more?

    To me this game sets up for San Francisco like all those that have come before in their current win streak against the Packers. The 49ers are tougher. They are more physical. They lay it on the line on defense like no other team in football.

    Harbaugh is a man’s man and a master motivator. He will use the weather and everything going against the Niners as fuel for his team to prove their the toughest once again.

    Simply put I believe the 49ers will play like the team that wants it more. Look for Frank Gore and Vernon Davis to have huge games and for the Packers no huddle offense to shoot themselves in the foot.

    Is the no-huddle an advantage in the brutal cold? Or is playing slow and making the defense stand out there for 40 seconds between plays? To me a slow tempo offense makes more sense in these conditions.

    In the past I fooled myself into thinking we had a chance to beat these creeps, and sure I guess we do. It’s just that I don’t think we will. I hope I’m wrong.

    San Fran 27
    GB 20

    • Phatgzus

      Lol, Harbaaaah is no “man’s man”, he’s a sniveling 13-year old trapped in a man’s body; outside motivation is vastly overrated, lasts until you get the snot knocked out of you and you’re picking turf outta your teeth on your way to the huddle.

      “Mean Joe” Green was a man’s man. Ray Nitschke was a man’s man. Dick Butkus was a man’s man. Vince Lombardi was a man’s man. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are man’s men. Jim Harbaugh is a conceited, entitled
      adultescent.

  4. ay hombre

    Funny thing is New Year’s Eve Shawn told me he thought it would be 34-17 San Fran. You’re doing what I did the last couple times Shawn. Deluding yourself into believing. I hope you’re right.

    • Shawn Shawn

      The difference is the cold. I think it slows down the read-option and partially negates the pass rush for both teams. I think that is a big advantage for the Packers.

      I think the Packers are better prepared for the cold and will play better in it.

      If I am over-rating the impact of the cold, then we are probably screwed because like I said in my prediction, I think the 49ers are a two score favorite if weather is no factor.

  5. tedtomato

    I predict dum capers and his shit defense do enough to save that cocksuckers job for 1 more season…kapperdick gets hurt after raji does a belly flop on him..mccarthy knocks harbaugh out with an uppercut after harbaugh gets in his face.gore sets an alltime low with minus 30 yards rushing

  6. Richard

    I hope Harbaugh and the rest of these shitbags fly out with pneumonia and missing frost bitten body parts after this weekend is over

  7. Savage57

    There is one aspect of this that’s gotten little attention – I call it the ‘George McFly effect’. After getting shit shoved in your face for a long enough time, your psyche, in an act of sheer self-preservation, powers and compels you to overcome the supposed limits you see in yourself and you find the means to overcome seemingly overwhelming and impossible odds.

    So, in short speak, it is time, (thanks to Kevin Greene) for George (the Packers) to lay Biff (the 49ers) out.

      • ay hombre

        Did he say that? No. He said San Fran is Biff and we are McFly which is pretty accurate. I suggest you re-read well-written posts that you’re envious about a second time before you go off half-cocked and make an ass of yourself.

        • E. Wolf

          One six, half a dozen the other. George McFly was only really bullied by one guy, Biff. Anyway, I don’t buy it–we played remarkably well in the opener.

          • ay hombre

            You’re an idiot E. You’re implying he said we are the George McFly of the NFL and he’s not saying anything of the sort. And we played remarkably well? Oh ok. I guess we can hope to play that well again and maybe we’ll keep it close.

            What do you care anyway E Sheep? This season is dead to you. Go the way of PFail and shut the fuck up.

          • E. Wolf

            Dude, most were predicting some sort of blowout week 1, and that game would have been won if the defense could have held on.

  8. E. Wolf

    The Chiefs are laying the absolute smackdown on the Colts. I thought they might win. I do think they will be the only wildcard team to advance.
    Here is something–perhaps Harbaugh is so not infallible, taking Kapernick over Alex Smith

  9. Phatgzus

    1) The Packers run D is much worse than it was in Week 1; however, Aaron Rodgers is back so I believe it will be better than it was in Weeks 8-17. They “held” Forte to 110 yards rushing last week, and he’s the type of back that has destroyed GB this year (fast, agile, quick). That said I think Harbaaah will commit to the run more than Breastman. I think they’ll do decently vs. Gore; Hunter I’m not so sure about. If the D. Can hold them to less than 150 combined rushing and 60 receiving, I think they win.

    The cold does affect the old more than younguns, but
    that’s more down to wear and tear than senescence itself; Gore will be sore before he steps off the plane.

    San Fran def doesn’t like being run on, that said, regardless of the temperature, we have Aaron Rodgers and that secondary is not very good. If the O-line can hold their blocks, look out; if the can’t, look away.

    Gonna be a Hell of a game, I honestly believe each team has an equal chance of winning.

    Go, Pack, Go!

    • E. Wolf

      I wrote too soon. I was pulling for the Chiefs–it seemed like they could have been a real wrecking ball knocking out a lot of high-seed teams.

  10. Nacho Libre

    Hey IGGLES, how you like them apples you shit talking cock smoker?? Deja vu all over again from the 2010 wild card game getting beat at home, HA!!

    • E. Wolf

      Bwaaaahahahaha! Poor Eagles fans, they never learn.
      Bill Burr does a podcast, and this past week he talked about teams that new footballs should consider adopting. He put all the teams with no championships into the category of a “burlap sack full of kittens to be drowned.” That’s you, Eagles fans. You, and Seahawks fans, and Vikings fans, and Lions fans! And I hope it stays that way forever and ever, until the end of days.
      Silly Eagles fans, silly Vikings fans, Silly Lions fans, Silly Seahawks fans, dontcha know, rings are for Packers (and Steelers and sadly also Cowboys and other real teams, the haves of the NFL!)

  11. Nacho Libre

    That’s what you get for talking your bullshit. Too bad you can’t get a refund for your playoff tickets which sold out in, how much time was it again, 28.8 seconds..? HA!!!!!!!

    • Phatgzus

      Gone in 28.8 Seconds and the Iggles were Gone in 60 Minutes (starring Nicholas Cage and the ghost of Andy Rooney, a.k.a. The Expirables).

  12. Phatgzus

    Sorry guys, Iggles can’t respond as he decided to test the flight capabilities of his shitty ass Toshiba laptop.

  13. Fritz from LaCrosse

    just like i predicted, Saints had a better defense than Dallas, and exposed the Sheagles for what they were when they got smashed by the lowly Vikes. Same thing with GB. Defense is stealthily improved since Week 1, e.g., Mulumba is a playmaker who is learning quickly to stay at home v. the run option, and the secondary is actually much healthier than Week 1, also, while Frisco has 3 banged up CB. i won’t give a score, but rest assured the Pack will win Ice Bowl edition 2, because, well, all the turnovers will make it impossible to estimate point spreads. also, don’t expect eddie lacy to let SF strip fumble him, and/or get him “stood up” in traffic. and, lastly, anquin boldin is playing his 17th game in his 11th season, his creaking bones can’t take too much -50F wind chill IMHO. and Krumpledick is still the “skinniest” QB in the nfl, not a great physique to be sporting in an arctic storm, either.

  14. Fritz from LaCrosse

    oh, and don’t forget how awful SF looked last week v. the lowly Cardinals, who should have won that game in the last minute, without ever letting it get to overtime, where anything can happen.
    and, our west coast “seers”, monty and shawn, have seemingly forgotten that lacy was an inexperienced rookie in week one when he let himself get strip-fumbled. i can’t see a banged up Gore and the skinflint QB getting anywhere near the combined yards of the packer rush?

    • Phatgzus

      Arizona wasn’t all that lowly this year, they were a Playoff-calibre team, heck, they had a better record than we did.

      • Fritz from LaCrosse

        a better record?? GB percentage W-L with A-Rod playing a full game was 6-2. You do the math! and that does not even adjust for Cards’ easy schedule. I repeat, SF looked beat up and tired, and did not take that game, they were handed it to them in OT.
        in any event, today’s game is going to be for heavyweights, not skinflints like Krumpledick. R U ready to RUMBLE?

        • Phatgzus

          Yeah they had a better win % with A-Rodge, but overall tge Cards had a better record. I’m not stating they’re a better team, just had a better record, that’s a fact.

          I agree SF doesn’t look all that hot, especially for a team that’s won its last 6, they barely beat the dirty and red birds (as you stated)-I think/hope they expended most of their tank in the last game vs. the seabirds.

  15. vj

    They.should lean on Starks more in this game. He is a one cut, then downhill kind of runner. Eddie is great but he tends to run by taking extra steps which plays right into the 49ers strength in stopping the run. Starks is either THE MAN in this one, or we lose handily. We also need a couple of turnovers/ scores and take care of the ball on our end. If we do those things I think we have a shot. If not, we get dismantled.

    • Phatgzus

      How do you run by not taking extra steps? Please explain. If you’re implying Lacy “dances” you’re wrong-he finds a hole then explodes through it. The only reason I would want more Starks than Lacy is if Eddie can’t explode off that ankle.

  16. SEAHAWKSOWNYOU

    LEGION OF BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!! Oh yeah!!!! You are LUCKY you aren’t seeing us in a week! We would get ALL up your ass and dig out the corn.

  17. tedtomato

    Yeah shehawks..next one &done #1 seed…the aints owe you a payback..hope brees buttfucks your shit 10 point scoring a game team!!

  18. SEAHAWKSOWNYOU

    Fuck Brees, New Orleans as a whole (especially that hurricane), and anyone who wants to step to us. Oh and Fudge Packer fans: Wisconsin has more Seahawks fans than Packers fans. TRUTH. Fags

  19. tedtomato

    Your full of shit dumbfuck…the only state where there are seahawks fans is washington! We are the worlds team!! Theres a reason noone follows your shitfuckers…EMPTY TROPHY CASE!! WIN A FEW LOMBARDI’S THEN TALK SMACK…SHITHEAD!!!

  20. Shawn Shawn

    It is warmer than predicted. It is 7 degrees right now, and though the temperature is expected to drop, I don’t see it dropping more than a couple degrees in two hours.

    This will not be as cold a game as the 2007 NFC Championship Game.

    On the otherhand, is there a big difference between 5 degrees and 0 degrees when outside playing football? I wouldn’t think so. Both are DAMN cold.

  21. E. Wolf

    WTF is going on in Cincy. … This is why it is not a good idea to bet on football.
    Checked weather.com and the weather is supposed to now between 5-2 degrees from 4-7.

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