Do I believe the Green Bay Packers will go 16-0? Hell no. The computer simulations at AccuScore do and ESPN published their projections, so obviously it will come to pass.
How did they arrive at this result? I don’t know. I don’t do math. Here’s what ESPN says: AccuScore “uses digital profiles of NFL players and coaches to predict outcomes based on game and season simulations.”
So they simulate some games based on stats, predictions and stuff.
If you look at the Packers’ game-by-game breakdown, you’ll notice a couple interesting things.
First, the computer has the Packers scoring a lot of points, but they also have them giving up a lot of points. Their lowest simulated points-against is 16.4, which was put up by the fake Jacksonville Jaguars. The computer has 12 of the Packers’ 16 opponents putting up 20 or more and two putting up more than 30. In other words, they don’t expect the defense to be much better than last season. Frankly, we’re not sure we do either, especially with so many young guys.
Second, most of the simulations have the Packers coming out on top by more than seven points. The closest margins of victory are 1.2 against Houston and 2.4 against the Giants.
AccuScore says the Packers have a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 74 percent chance of winning the division.